clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Kentucky at Louisville odds, betting trends, expert picks and prediction

The Wildcats find themselves as road underdogs at Louisville.

If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. See our ethics statement.

The Governor’s Cup returns as the Kentucky Wildcats head to Louisville for a matchup with their in-state rival Louisville Cardinals.

While Kentucky has routed Louisville in their previous two matchups by a combined score of 101-23, the Wildcats find themselves as the “underdog” in this game. Kentucky has just one win this season as an underdog, and that was at home against then-No. 10 Florida. It’s safe to say that win doesn’t look quite as good now.

Game odds, trends for each team, expert picks, and a prediction follow.

Odds

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Kentucky is a 3-point underdog at Louisville on Saturday. The expected total points scored is set at 57, indicating a shootout could be on display. ESPN’s Football Power Index is giving Kentucky just a 39.2% chance of victory.

Betting Trends

Kentucky

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kentucky’s last 6 games.
  • Kentucky is 10-3 SU in their last 13 games.
  • Kentucky is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Louisville.
  • Kentucky is 3-6 SU in their last 9 games against Louisville.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kentucky’s last 5 games on the road.
  • Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Louisville.
  • Kentucky is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games this season.
  • Kentucky is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Coast conference.
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kentucky’s last 9 games played in November.

Louisville

  • Louisville is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisville’s last 6 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisville’s last 6 games against Kentucky.
  • Louisville is 6-2 SU in their last 8 games at home.
  • Louisville is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against Kentucky.
  • Louisville is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Louisville’s last 11 games played in November.
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Louisville’s last 7 games played in week 13.
  • Louisville is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games played on a Saturday.

Expert Picks

Prediction

What a rollercoaster ride it has been for the Kentucky Wildcats this season. A historical 6-0 start to the year was followed up by three straight losses. While Kentucky has put together back to back wins, they’ve come against Vanderbilt and New Mexico State programs that have a combined three wins this year.

The Wildcats defense has continuously back-peddled and offensive attack has been hit or miss over the past five or so weeks. On Saturday, the Wildcats’ defense will have to deal with Cardinals quarterback Malik Cunningham and the Kentucky offense will have to match an explosive offense with fireworks of their own.

While this year’s Governor’s Cup matchup will be much closer than the past two, Kentucky manages to pull out a victory to wrap up a 9-3 season under head coach Mark Stoops.

Final Score: Kentucky 37, Louisville 33


How do you see this one playing out? Let us know in the comments section!