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After a 5-0 start, the Kentucky Wildcats football program has hopes of potentially making a New Year's Six bowl game.
Not so fast though, as the dream could actually be bigger than that.
Over at FiveThirtyEight, they came out with their updated College Football Playoff predictions, as well as ranking the teams most likely to hear their name called in the final four. Their system gave the Cats a five percent chance to be one of those teams.
Our college football predictions → https://t.co/nX3qqKHW1a
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) October 5, 2021
Here is a brief explanation of how their system comes up with the data you will see above from FiveThirtyEight.
How this works: Our model uses the College Football Playoff selection committee’s past behavior and an Elo rating-based system to anticipate how the committee will rank teams and ultimately choose playoff contestants, accounting for factors that include record, strength of schedule, conference championships won and head-to-head results. It also uses ESPN’s Football Power Index and the committee’s rankings to forecast teams’ chances of winning. (Before Nov. 2, when the CFP will release its first rankings, the Associated Press Top 25 poll is used instead.) The teams included above either have at least a 0.5 percent chance of making the playoff or are in the top 25 in at least one of the three rankings we use in our model: FPI, the Elo-based rating or CFP/AP. Every forecast update is based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Alongside the five percent projection to make the playoff, the data also gives Kentucky a two percent chance to win the SEC and less than one percent chance to win the title. But hey, there is still a chance.
In all seriousness though, Kentucky making a run to the playoff would be tough. Throw out Georgia, because everyone knows that game will be extremely tough. The games remaining against LSU, Mississippi State, and Tennessee will not be easy in their own right.
However, these are the type of numbers and publicity you like to see, as your program is starting to take the next step towards contention. Either way, let’s go out and beat LSU and see this number start to grow.