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Kentucky at Mississippi State odds, betting trends, expert picks and prediction

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Is this the year Kentucky wins at Starkville?

Will Levis. huddle. Jason Marcum - Sea of Blue

The Kentucky Wildcats are coming off a much-needed bye week after suiting up against Florida, LSU and Georgia to begin the month of October. A 2-1 record over those three weeks (dropping their game at Georgia) earned them a spot at No. 12 in the AP Top-25 rankings. Now, the Wildcats will look to end their month with a win at Starkville over the Mississippi State Bulldogs and continue their climb into the top-10.

Odds

Mississippi State opened as a 1-point favorite, then the line quickly shifted to Kentucky -1. However, as of Saturday morning, the Wildcats are now 1.5-point underdogs, per DraftKings. The over/under opened at 47.5 and currently sits at 47. ESPN’s Football Power Index is only giving Kentucky a 46.6% chance of victory.

Betting Trends

Kentucky

  • Kentucky are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
  • Kentucky are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games.
  • Kentucky are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games against Mississippi State.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kentucky’s last 7 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Mississippi State.
  • Kentucky are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games this season.
  • Kentucky are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
  • Kentucky are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in October.

Mississippi State

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi State’s last 6 games.
  • Mississippi State are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi State’s last 6 games against Kentucky.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Mississippi State’s last 14 games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi State’s last 5 games when playing at home against Kentucky.
  • Mississippi State are 4-9 SU in their last 13 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
  • Mississippi State are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games played in October.
  • Mississippi State are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games played in week 9.
  • Mississippi State are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing as the favourite.

Expert Picks

Prediction

Much like LSU, the Bulldogs do a lot of their offensive work through the air. Quarterback Will Rodgers has nearly double the passing yards of Will Levis and five more touchdown passes. The Bulldogs’ leading rusher has almost less than a third of Chris Rodriguez’s carries and just one touchdown score on the season. What does that tell us? Kentucky’s pass rush and secondary will be put to the test on Saturday in what is expected to be an intense atmosphere. Thankfully the Wildcats have answered the bell on most occasions this season and won games they wouldn’t necessarily have won in past years. On Saturday, look for the Wildcats to continue that trend as head coach Mark Stoops secures his first win in Starkville.

Final Score: Kentucky 26, Mississippi State 20