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Kentucky at Georgia: Odds, betting trends, expert picks & prediction

Everyone is picking Georgia to win and take full control of the SEC East.

NCAA Football: Georgia at Kentucky Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Despite beating Florida and LSU back-to-back weekends, starting the season 6-0 and being ranked 11th in the country, the Kentucky Wildcats are one of the larger SEC underdogs of the weekend as they travel to face No. 1 Georgia in Athens.

Kentucky, missing several key starters, will look to stay hot but will have to do so without their 12th Man — Kroger Field.

This will be Kentucky’s toughest road test in quite some time. Georgia is ranked No. 1 for the first week all season, so one would have to assume the Bulldogs are ready to make a statement in front of their home crowd.

Still, both fan bases should be in for quite the football game Saturday afternoon.

Odds

According to Pregame.com, Kentucky opened as heavy underdogs with the spread set at +23.5 points. The line has held firm, only slightly moving to +22.5. The over/under total opened at 44.5 and has narrowly adjusted to 45. ESPN’s Football Power Index is giving the Wildcats just a 4.6% chance to upset the Bulldogs in Athens.

Betting Trends

Kentucky

  • Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kentucky’s last 6 games.
  • Kentucky is 8-0 SU in their last 8 games.
  • Kentucky is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against Georgia.
  • Kentucky is 0-10 SU in their last 10 games against Georgia.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky’s last 6 games on the road.
  • Kentucky is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Georgia.
  • Kentucky is 6-0 SU in their last 6 games this season.
  • Kentucky is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
  • Kentucky is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the East Division division.

Georgia

  • Georgia is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • Georgia is 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia’s last 6 games against Kentucky.
  • Georgia is 8-0 SU in their last 8 games at home.
  • Georgia is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Kentucky.
  • Georgia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games this season.
  • Georgia is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Georgia’s last 5 games against an opponent in the East Division division.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Georgia’s last 8 games played in October.

Expert Picks

Prediction

The glaring difference in this game will be Georgia’s historic defense. While Kentucky has been extraordinary this season (12th in defensive yards per play), the Bulldogs are light years ahead by leading or being near the top in every defensive category. On offense, though, these two teams match up somewhat similarly with Kentucky possibly having the edge. Kentucky (6.6) actually ranks ahead of Georgia (6.5) in yards per play on offense. You may see the spread and expect a blowout by Georgia, but if Kentucky can avoid giving the ball away in their own territory the Bulldogs could find it challenging to score let alone move the football consistently. What a victory and fairytale upset it would be for Kentucky to win in Athens... so much of a fairytale that it’s hard to see that becoming true. Kentucky nearly pulls off the upset in a highly respectable defeat.

Final Score: Georgia 26, Kentucky 16