Wednesday Quickies: ESPN FPI Projects Kentucky’s Record

The Football Power Index historically hasn’t favored the Cats

By Zac Oakes@ZacOakes Jul 8, 2020, 6:40am EDT

NCAA Football: Citrus Bowl-Kentucky vs Penn State

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) hasn’t historically favored the Kentucky Football program. In the last two years, the FPI has projected losing seasons for Kentucky, projections that the Wildcats have clearly outperformed.

Going into the 2020 season, the FPI is more generous to Kentucky, and projects a winning season at 7-5. However, that record doesn’t necessarily take the path you would think. Here’s a look at how the FPI projects Kentucky’s schedule.

WINS: Eastern Michigan, Kent State, South Carolina, Eastern Illinois, Vanderbilt, at Missouri, and Mississippi State

LOSSES: At Florida, at Auburn, at Tennessee, Georgia, at Louisville

My prediction has been 8-4, which comes by moving Louisville to the win column.

However, the interesting part of this projection is the FPI provides a “chance of winning” for each game. For the Louisville game, that percentage is 29.2 percent. Even if you don’t love Kentucky’s chances of winning that game, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where that game is played 100 times and Kentucky only wins 29 of them.

You can take a look at all the percentages by clicking here.