The Kentucky Wildcats are coming off of one of the most embarrassing losses in the Mark Stoops era last week against Alabama. The Florida Gators are coming off of four consecutive blowout victories, including a drubbing of the Georgia Bulldogs.
Two years ago, the Wildcats broke a 31-year losing streak in Gainesville behind big games from running back Benny Snell and quarterback Terry Wilson, who figures to get the starting nod Saturday after rotating with Joe Gatewood and Beau Allen in recent weeks.
For all intents and purposes, Kentucky was the better team that day. Looking ahead to this Saturday, thought, the Wildcats will likely need a little luck to pull off the upset.
Kyle Trask has been unbelievable this season and has worked his way into Heisman conversations. He has completed over 70% of his passes while throwing 31 touchdowns to only three interceptions. He has already thrown for more than 2,500 yards in just seven games, and he has a quarterback rating of 197.1 for the season.
Trask spreads the ball around very well as 10 players have caught at least one touchdown pass. The leading receiver is Kadarius Toney who has 42 receptions for over 500 yards and seven touchdowns on the season. This Florida offense spreads the ball around and brings a very balanced attack to the table.
While a trio of running backs share time in the backfield, junior Dameon Pierce gets the bulk of the carries. He has 345 yards and three touchdowns on the year, and he averages 4.8 yards per carry. If Kentucky plays back to focus on defending the pass, the Gators are very capable of running the ball down their throats.
After back-to-back wins over Tennessee and Mississippi State, the Wildcats have fallen into somewhat of a tale spin. After narrow losses to Mississippi and Georgia, with both games highlighting offensive woes for Kentucky, the Wildcats barely beat the struggling Vanderbilt Commodores before embarrassing themselves on both sides of the ball against Alabama.
Florida has a great defense that flies around the field and puts helmets on the ball carrier. Kentucky is struggling to find an offensive identity, which is not what you want to see with two games left on the schedule. Kentucky’s defense is also looking to find their footing, while Florida’s offense seems to be clicking on all cylinders.
This is all ignoring the fact that Kentucky may be without as many as 18 players and 10 coaches due to COVID-19 restrictions. But while that seemingly put the game in danger of not being played, Kentucky still departed Friday and is now in Gainesville, which should confirm the game will go on.
Can Kentucky win on Saturday?
However, with the way both teams are trending and considering that Kentucky will be short-handed, calling this an uphill battle would be an understatement.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kentucky’s last 6 games.
- Kentucky is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against Florida.
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Kentucky’s last 13 games on the road.
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kentucky’s last 15 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
- Kentucky is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played in November.
- Kentucky is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing as the underdog.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Florida’s last 9 games.
- Florida is 10-1 SU in their last 11 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida’s last 6 games against Kentucky.
- Florida is 10-0 SU in their last 10 games at home.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida’s last 7 games this season.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida’s last 7 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
- Florida is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in November.
- Florida is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games played in week 13.
- OddsShark is picking Florida to win 44-21.
- TeamRankings is going with a 43-16 Gators victory, while numberFire has them winning 37-14.
- Mark Story of the Lexington Herald-Leader has Florida winning 48-16.
- Jason Laker of Sportsbook Review didn’t make a score prediction but did pick Kentucky to cover the spread.
- The same is true with Ace DeCardano of Action Network, who simply picked Florida to cover the spread.
- Pete Fiutak of College Football News has Florida winning 41-17.
- Antwan Staley of Athlon Sports picked the Gators to win 40-20.
How to watch Kentucky Wildcats (3-5) at Florida Gators (6-1)
Game Time: 12:00 pm EST on November 28th, 2020
Location: Ben Hill-Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
TV Channel: ESPN
Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
Radio: As always, Tom Leach and Jeff Piecoro will have the UK radio network call on 630 AM, 98.1 FM in Lexington, and on the UK Sports Network.
Odds: Florida opened as a 24-point favorite. The line has shifted between 22 and 26 points in various sportsbooks. ESPN FPI gives the Wildcats just a 10% chance of winning.
Weather: Partly cloudy and high 60s with a 13% chance of rain (via Covers).