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Kentucky vs. Missouri: Odds, betting trends, expert picks & prediction

How the oddsmakers and expert pickers view Kentucky vs. Missouri.

Kentucky v Missouri Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

After dropping their two first games of the season, the Kentucky Wildcats have rode the coattails of incredible defense for wins in their last two outings. This weekend, they’ll play host to the Missouri Tigers with a chance to move above .500 for the first time this season.

Missouri (1-2) has a single win this season, with it coming in their most recent performance in a 45-41 shootout over LSU. After last week’s matchup with Vanderbilt was postponed, they’ve had Kentucky at the top of their board for two weeks.

It’ll most certainly be a battle of the trenches, with Kentucky’s electricity in the secondary likely being the x-factor.

Odds

According to Pregame.com, Kentucky opened as a six-point favorite and has slightly moved to a five-point favorite. The over/under began at 50, but has been steamed all the way down to 46.5. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Kentucky a 60.5% chance of victory over the Tigers on Saturday.

The Cats have covered the spread in two straight games after failing to do so in losses to Auburn and Ole Miss. The Tigers covered in their 45-41 win over LSU and their 38-19 loss to Alabama but failed to do so in their 35-12 loss to Tennessee.

Speaking of, the Vols are the only common opponent both teams have faced thus far after Kentucky won 34-7 in Knoxville last week while Missouri was on a bye week.

Betting Trends

Kentucky Wildcats

  • Kentucky is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • Kentucky is 6-2 SU in their last 8 games.
  • Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Missouri.
  • Kentucky is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against Missouri.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky’s last 6 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kentucky’s last 11 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
  • Kentucky is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in October.
  • Kentucky is 5-13 SU in their last 18 games played in week 8.
  • Kentucky is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Saturday.

Missouri Tigers

  • Missouri is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Missouri’s last 14 games.
  • Missouri is 2-7 SU in their last 9 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Missouri’s last 6 games against Kentucky.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Missouri’s last 12 games at home.
  • Missouri is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
  • Missouri is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played in October.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Missouri’s last 7 games played in week 8.
  • Missouri is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games played on a Saturday.
  • Missouri is 3-17 SU in their last 20 games when playing as the underdog.

Expert Picks

Prediction

It wouldn’t be Kentucky football if every other game was a dramatic turn of events. It’s no secret the Wildcats have been on a roll over the last two weeks and that’s certainly good news heading into a matchup where a team has had more than a week to prepare. Kentucky will face more of a challenge this week, but the end result will remain the same. In a defensive grind, Kentucky pulls ahead late to move to 3-2 on the year.

Final Score: Kentucky 23, Missouri 17