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Kentucky vs. Ole Miss: Odds, betting trends, expert picks & prediction

Rounding up what the experts and oddsmakers are saying about Cats vs. Rebels.

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Lane Kiffin and his Ole Miss Rebels travel to Lexington this weekend in search of their first win after losing to the Florida Gators in Week 1.

Opening weekend for Kentucky football wasn’t exactly a pretty sight, either. In starting quarterback Terry Wilson’s first game back, his offense had three turnovers and scored just 13 points (though an additional six were wrongly taken off the board) in a sizable loss to the Auburn Tigers.

The Kentucky offense actually out-gained Auburn’s, but was far less efficient on both sides of the field. While the Kentucky defense allowed four touchdown drives at Auburn, only two came on a drive of more than 27 yards.

While they held up decently well against the Tigers, Kiffin’s offense can hardly be overlooked. The Rebels scored 35 on Florida’s defense last week, though their own defense did give up 51 in the loss.

This week is a new chapter. Kentucky has the chance to bounce back and secure their first win of the season in front of their home crowd. In this All-SEC schedule, though, no opponent can be overlooked. Head coach Mark Stoops and his team will need to come out ready to trade blows and play with poise. Kickoff is set for 4 pm EST.

Odds

After opening as a 6.5-point favorite, Kentucky has been on the negative side of some “steam.” Per Pregame.com, 43% of tickets are currently producing 70% of the cash bet on this game, in favor of Ole Miss. ESPN’s Football Power Index currently gives Kentucky a 63% chance of victory at home, all-be-it with a very limited capacity in terms of fans.

Betting Trends

Kentucky Wildcats

  • Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kentucky’s last 5 games.
  • Kentucky is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
  • Kentucky is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kentucky’s last 8 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky’s last 5 games played in October.
  • Kentucky is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games played in week 5.
  • Kentucky is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games played on a Saturday.
  • Kentucky is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing as the favorite.

Ole Miss Rebels

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi’s last 6 games.
  • Mississippi is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games.
  • Mississippi is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against Kentucky.
  • Mississippi is 0-6 SU in their last 6 games on the road.
  • Mississippi is 0-6 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Mississippi’s last 11 games played in October.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Mississippi’s last 5 games played in week 5.
  • Mississippi is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games when playing as the underdog.

Expert Picks

Pete Fiutak of College Football News sees a push by the spread in a 26-20 victory by Kentucky.

Eric Sorenson, editor for Athlon Sports, is predicting a slight cover by Kentucky in a shootout fashion of 42-34.

Collin Wilson of The Action Network is taking the points with Ole Miss, but did not declare a winning score.

Josh Moore of the Herald-Leader is also taking Ole Miss with the spread, but sees Kentucky winning a tight ballgame by a score of 31-27.

SportsLine, which simulates every college football game 10,000 times to come up with the most accurate projections possible, has Ole Miss winning 20-19.

247 Sports’ Bud Elliot did not offer a score prediction but did pick Ole Miss to cover the 6.5-point spread.

Prediction

Kentucky’s defense fared decently well at Auburn last week. Take away the unforced turnovers by the offense and Kentucky would have limited Auburn to even fewer yards/points. With Lane Kiffin’s offense sure to throw unique looks Kentucky’s way, it will be significant for the Wildcats’ offense to keep their defensive unit rested and off the field as often as possible. The formula to do so is a heavy dose of running the football, which is what Kentucky does best as a football team. It will take patience from Wilson and his receivers, but an efficient will allow for explosive plays downfield via play-action. Kentucky’s ability to do just that will carry them on Saturday and earn their first win of the season.

Final Score: Kentucky 27, Ole Miss 20