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Kentucky vs. Missouri: Analysis, betting trends, expert picks and prediction

Breaking down Kentucky vs. Missouri with predictions.

NCAA Football: Kentucky at Missouri Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

After a shutout loss to the Georgia Bulldogs, the Kentucky Wildcats are looking to hit the reset button this weekend against the Missouri Tigers.

Unfortunately for the Wildcats, though, they’ll play a strong opponent coming off an upset loss for the second consecutive Saturday. Last week, Georgia was coming off a home loss to South Carolina and this week the Tigers are looking to rebound their loss last Saturday at Vanderbilt.

Kentucky can only go up in terms of scoring when compared to last week, and what better way to do so than in front of the Big Blue Nation at Kroger Field.

Analysis

After opening as nine-point underdogs, the line has narrowly moved to 10.5 in favor of the Tigers. According to pregame.com, however, the “sharp” money is currently on the Wildcats, as 70% of the tickets and 80% of the total money have been placed on Kentucky to cover the 10-point spread.

ESPN’s Football Power Index is giving Kentucky a slim chance of victory at home, with the pregame winning percentage being calculated at 35.4%.

It’s no secret Kelly Bryant will be the number-one focus of head coach Mark Stoops’ defense Saturday evening. With inclement weather expected to be a factor for the second consecutive week, the Wildcats should be more prepared than last week on both sides of the ball.

Of course, heavy rain will almost always play a part in the passing game but in order to win Kentucky will quite literally have to move the ball more through the air than they did at Georgia.

Playing back in front of their home crowd should fuel the momentum fire for Kentucky, but execution on both sides of the ball will be required to pull off the upset.

Betting Trends

Kentucky

  • Kentucky are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kentucky’s last 5 games.
  • Kentucky is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kentucky’s last 5 games against Missouri.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kentucky’s last 6 games at home.
  • Kentucky is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games this season.
  • Kentucky is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games against an opponent in the Southeast conference.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky’s last 5 games played in October.
  • Kentucky is 3-9 SU in their last 12 games played in week 9.
  • Kentucky is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played on a Saturday.

Missouri

  • Missouri is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Missouri’s last 6 games.
  • Missouri is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
  • Missouri is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Kentucky.
  • Missouri is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on the road.
  • Missouri is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games this season.
  • Missouri is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games against an opponent in the Southeast conference.
  • Missouri is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played in October.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Missouri’s last 6 games played in week 9.

Expert Picks

College Football News is predicting the Tigers to cover the 10-point spread by a score of 30-17.

Bill Connelly’s S&P formula has Missouri winning 32-17 and gives the Tigers an 80% chance of winning at Kroger Field.

Athlon Sports has Missouri winning 34-18.

Winners and Whiners projects the Tigers to cover the 10.5-point spread.

OddsShark projects a 42-18 win for Missouri.

Josh Moore of the Herald-Leader is going with a 24-20 win for the Tigers.

Prediction

Kentucky will certainly move the ball more effectively this weekend, but that doesn’t mean their defense will play nearly as well. While rain is expected to be a factor Saturday night, it shouldn’t be near the amount Georgia faced when playing Kentucky’s defense a week ago.

Therefore, Kentucky’s ability to move the football will more than likely correlate with Missouri scoring the ball effectively on the Wildcats’ defense. Considering Kentucky is at home, expect the contest to be much closer than most predict.

Final Score: Missouri 27, Kentucky 24