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Kentucky vs. Georgia: Analysis, betting trends, expert picks & predictions

A look at how the oddsmakers and experts view Kentucky vs. Georgia.

Georgia v Kentucky Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Kentucky seemed to find themselves last week against a sub-par Arkansas Razorbacks team, but it took every ounce of wide receiver-turned-quarterback Lynn Bowden to pull out the victory.

The Wildcats, sitting at 3-3, will now face by far their most difficult test of the season as they travel to Athens, for a matchup with a Georgia Bulldogs team that embarrassingly lost at South Carolina last weekend.

With a full game of tape on Bowden, a much more physical offensive/defensive line and a clear advantage of talent at skill positions, Georgia is a very sizable favorite one year after demolishing the best Kentucky team the Wildcats have had in four decades.

Saturday will be a major challenge just to stay competitive, but this Georgia team has proven to be far more vulnerable that most expected coming into the season.

Analysis

ESPN’s Football Power Index is giving Kentucky a whopping 6.3% chance to upset Georgia, who was every matchup of this decade and hasn’t lost to the Cats since 2009. Bill Connelly’s S&P formula gives the Wildcats an 8% chance of winning and projects a 39-15 win for the Dawgs.

After opening as 27-point underdogs, the line has indeed moved in Kentucky’s favor, but only by two points, as it now stands at -25 and still favors Georgia by four scores. With the over/under set at 46.5, the final score is predicted to be somewhere around 36-11 with the Bulldogs obviously winning.

Behind seasoned quarterback Jake Fromm, a veteran head coach and (most importantly) an embarrassing loss last week to the Gamecocks, Georgia will be more than ready to play this weekend. Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops has pulled off multiple upsets in his career at Kentucky, including one as a 28-point underdog at Louisville in 2016, so it’s not like they’re strangers to massive upsets.

Betting Trends

Kentucky

  • Kentucky is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kentucky’s last 9 games.
  • Kentucky is 13-6 SU in their last 19 games.
  • Kentucky is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against Georgia.
  • Kentucky is 0-9 SU in their last 9 games against Georgia.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kentucky’s last 7 games on the road.
  • Kentucky is 1-11 SU in their last 12 games when playing on the road against Georgia.
  • Kentucky is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games this season.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Kentucky’s last 12 games against an opponent in the Southeast conference.

Georgia

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Georgia’s last 7 games.
  • Georgia is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia’s last 6 games against Kentucky.
  • Georgia is 16-1 SU in their last 17 games at home.
  • Georgia is 11-1 SU in their last 12 games when playing at home against Kentucky.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia’s last 6 games this season.
  • Georgia is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against an opponent in the Southeast conference.
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Georgia’s last 8 games played in October.
  • Georgia is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played in week 8.

Expert Picks

Per CBS Sports, there was a sweep by Barton Simmons, Chip Patterson, Dennis Dodd, Jerry Palm and Tom Fornelli to not only pick the Bulldogs straight up but also to cover the 25-point spread.

Rob McVey of Athlon Sports is predicting a narrow cover by Kentucky, though, with the Wildcats losing by a 37-13 decision.

Pete Fiutak of College Football News is almost right in line with McVey, predicting a 37-10 loss for Kentucky.

Brad Crawford at 247 Sports is expecting an even wider margin of blowout by a score of 38-7 in favor of Georgia.

Joe Williams of SportsBook Wire is going with a 45-13 Georgia win.

TeamRankings projects a 37-10 Georgia win, while numberFire went with a 38-15 win for the home team.

Prediction

Other than punter, Kentucky won’t have an advantage at any position on the field this weekend. While flipping the field can spell your team some time, the punter can’t assist the offense scoring points or the defense being ran over by the Goliaths’ of Georgia’s offensive line.

This game will represent that one weekend nearly every college fanbase has each year where you’re simply looking forward to the next weekend. For the players, though, this a chance to show what they’re made of on a national stage.

The Wildcats will look to prove they’re still narrowing the gap between themselves and the Bulldogs, who in turn will look to show they’re still a legitimate College Football Playoff team.

Needless to say, Georgia will win this going away.

Final Score: Georgia 41, Kentucky 6