Kentucky vs Texas A&M: Analysis, betting trends, picks & prediction

A rebound is on the doctor’s order as the Kentucky Wildcats return home from a late loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide to host the Texas A&M Aggies. At 10-3, the 18th-ranked Wildcats are viewed as the superior against a 6-6 Aggie team. However, that shouldn’t change Kentucky’s approach to what will surely be another tough SEC battle.

Analysis

Heading into the game, the Wildcats boast the country’s 29th-ranked scoring offense but also own the 128th-ranked scoring defense. However, the Aggies’ 148th-ranked offense should allow a favorable matchup for a Wildcats’ defense looking to rebound after giving up 77 points to the Crimson Tide.

Speaking of defense, players not named Ashton Hagans will need to improve their efforts despite the inferior offense they’ll face. While players like Nick Richards and Tyler Herro have been active off the ball/in the paint, players like PJ Washington and Reid Travis haven’t been spectacular rim defenders. Therefore, emphasis on perimeter defense/stopping the ball in transition will be increased.

Overall, the Wildcats shouldn’t face much adversity en route to a victory. In fact, the game should be a prime opportunity for the team to improve their offensive chemistry ahead of their upcoming three-game stretch against ranked opponents.

Here are some statistics to know for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:

Kentucky Offense:

• Points/Game 82.5 (#19)
• Avg Score Margin +12.5 (#30)
• Assists/Game 14.5 (#86)
• Total Rebounds/Gm 38.8 (#51)
• Assists/FGM 0.511 (#196)
• Assists/Turnover 1.044 (#130)
• Effective FG % 54.3% (#53)
• FTA/FGA 0.441 (#18)
• Free Throw % 74.9% (#43)
• Three Point % 35.3% (#120)
• Two Point % 54.9% (#63)
• Shooting % 48.9% (#22)
• Shooting Efficiency 1.169 (#26)
• 3PM/Game 6.3 (#294)
• 3PA/Game 17.8 (#325)
• FTM/Game 19.2 (#7)
• FTA/Game 25.7 (#19)

Kentucky Defense:

• Opponent Points/Game 70.0 (#124)
• Opponent Avg Score Margin -12.5 (#30)
• Opp Assists/Game 12.4 (#115)
• Opponent Total Rebounds/Gm 28.6 (#2)
• Opponent Assists/FGM 0.489 (#97)
• Opponent Assists/Turnover 0.826 (#78)
• Opponent Effective FG % 49.7% (#140)
• Opponent FTA/FGA 0.262 (#31)
• Opponent Free Throw % 69.5% (#162)
• Opponent Three Point % 38.3% (#323)
• Opponent Two Point % 45.0% (#33)
• Opponent Shooting % 42.5% (#108)
• Opponent Shooting Efficiency 1.047 (#112)
• Opponent 3PM/Game 8.5 (#263)
• Opponent 3PA/Game 22.3 (#171)
• Opponent FTM/Game 10.8 (#36)
• Opponent FTA/Game 15.6 (#26)

Texas A&M Offense:

• Points/Game 75.1 (#112)
• Avg Score Margin +3.9 (#123)
• Assists/Game 14.2 (#115)
• Total Rebounds/Gm 41.7 (#12)
• Assists/FGM 0.521 (#172)
• Assists/Turnover 0.994 (#163)
• Effective FG % 49.9% (#207)
• FTA/FGA 0.355 (#142)
• Free Throw % 68.2% (#230)
• Three Point % 28.3% (#336)
• Two Point % 53.9% (#89)
• Shooting % 44.8% (#152)
• Shooting Efficiency 1.043 (#242)
• 3PM/Game 6.1 (#303)
• 3PA/Game 21.5 (#205)
• FTM/Game 14.7 (#124)
• FTA/Game 21.5 (#96)

Texas A&M Defense:

• Opponent Points/Game 71.2 (#150)
• Opponent Avg Score Margin -3.9 (#123)
• Opponent Assists/Game 14.7 (#261)
• Opponent Total Rebounds/Gm 37.1 (#253)
• Opponent Assists/FGM 0.585 (#307)
• Opponent Assists/Turnover 1.035 (#211)
• Opponent Effective FG % 46.7% (#54)
• Opponent FTA/FGA 0.310 (#108)
• Opponent Free Throw % 63.7% (#18)
• Opponent Three Point % 32.2% (#102)
• Opponent Two Point % 45.5% (#41)
• Opponent Shooting % 39.9% (#40)
• Opponent Shooting Efficiency 1.003 (#50)
• Opponent 3PM/Game 8.6 (#266)
• Opponent 3PA/Game 26.7 (#330)
• Opponent FTM/Game 12.4 (#96)
• Opponent FTA/Game 19.5 (#175)

Betting Trends

Kentucky enters the game as a 13.5-point favorite. The Wildcats had won three straight against the spread prior to Saturday’s setback at Alabama. However, Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in four of their eight home games this season.

Here are some more betting trends for both teams:

• Kentucky is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
• Kentucky is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
• Kentucky is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas A&M
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kentucky’s last 7 games when playing Texas A&M
• Texas A&M is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
• Texas A&M is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Texas A&M’s last 9 games
• Texas A&M is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas A&M’s last 7 games on the road
• Texas A&M is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kentucky
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas A&M’s last 7 games when playing Kentucky

Picks

TeamRankings projects Kentucky to win 82-68.

numberFire is going with an 83-70 victory for the Wildcats.

Freepicks.com expects Kentucky to win and cover the spread.

Sports Chat Place also expects the Wildcats to win and cover the spread.

Prediction

Saturday's loss was definitely a setback, as Kentucky has an upcoming slate of Auburn, Mississippi State and Kansas over a seven day span. However, before their challenging stretch, they’ll first receive three games against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Georgia. While the Wildcats would’ve liked to start their SEC dominance with a win over Alabama, they’ll have to swallow the weekend defeat and maintain focus against the Aggies.

Kentucky has the lopsided edge in talent as well as coaching, which should lead to a comfortable victory.

Final Score: Kentucky 74, Texas A&M 58