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Kentucky at Georgia: Analysis, game line, betting trends & prediction

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A breakdown of Kentucky’s trip to Georgia.

NCAA Basketball: Vanderbilt at Kentucky Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

After a jump from 18th to 12th in the latest Associated Press poll, the Kentucky Wildcats will put their credibility to the test in Tuesday’s road test against the Georgia Bulldogs.

Kentucky (12-3) has started SEC play with two wins to one loss, while Georgia (9-6) has done the opposite of one win and two losses.

While the Bulldogs have faced two ranked teams (Auburn and Tennessee) since their SEC slate began, the Wildcats haven’t faced near that level of talent. In just the third true road game of Kentucky’s season, achieving victory will most likely be easier said than done.

Analysis

Kentucky is 1-1 on the road so far this season, winning at Louisville and losing at Alabama. They’re also 1-2 in neutral site games, defeating North Carolina but losing to both Duke and Seton Hall. That leaves a perfect 10-0 record at Rupp Arena, but Tuesday night’s game will be far from West High Street in Lexington, KY.

Kentucky’s lack of rebounding was becoming a serious area in need of attention before Saturday’s game against the Vanderbilt Commodores. However, behind 12 boards from Reid Travis and eight from PJ Washington, the Wildcats rediscovered their rebounding niche by winning the glass via a 38-21 margin.

The Bulldogs will likely be tough to move around in the paint, ranking 51st in the country for rebounding margin. While offensive production from Travis & Washington has recently dipped, their presence controlling the glass will be significant at both ends of the floor.

Over the last month, Ashton Hagans has blossomed as the team’s point guard. While shooting guard Tyler Herro has also had his moments scoring the rock and playing excellent off-ball defense, it’s been Immanuel Quickley’s scoring as the team’s sixth man that has been a difference maker since SEC play began.

In a tough road environment, Quickley’s scoring will be priority off the bench.

UK vs. UGA Stats to Know

Kentucky Offense Rank Defense Rank
Kentucky Offense Rank Defense Rank
Points/Game 80.9 (#25) Opp Points/Game 68.7 (#98)
Assists/Game 14.3 (#97) Opp Assists/Game 11.7 (#68)
Total Rebounds/c 38.1 (#63) Opp Total Rebounds/Game 28.2 (#1)
Assists/FGM 0.511 (#203) Opp Assists/FGM 0.469 (#64)
Assists/Turnover 1.034 (#137) Opp Assists/Turnover 0.774 (#48)
Effective FG % 54.5% (#48) Opp Effective FG % 49.7% (#145)
Free Throw % 75.2% (#40) Opp Free Throw % 69.7% (#169)
Three Point % 34.6% (#155) Opp Three Point % 38.0% (#317)
Two Point % 55.7% (#39) Opp Two Point % 45.3% (#29)
Shooting % 49.1% (#18) Opp Shooting % 42.5% (#99)
Shooting Efficiency 1.169 (#25) Opp Shooting Efficiency 1.051 (#120)
3PM/Game 6.1 (#305) Opp 3PM/Game 8.4 (#256)
3PA/Game 17.7 (#326) Opp 3PA/Game 22.1 (#162)
FTM/Game 18.6 (#4) Opp FTM/Game 10.6 (#26)
FTA/Game 24.7 (#24) Opp FTA/Game 15.2 (#19)
Off Rebounds/Game 10.2 (#60) Opp Off Rebounds/Game 7.6 (#88)
Def Rebounds/Game 25.2 (#67) Opp Def Rebounds/Game 18.7 (#2)
Off Rebound % 35.3% (#16) Opp Off Rebound % 23.2% (#52)
Def Rebound % 76.8% (#52) Opp Def Rebound % 64.7% (#16)
Blocks/Game 5.5 (#14) Opp Blocks/Game 2.6 (#55)
Block % 9.4% (#11) Opp Block % 4.6% (#55)
Steals/Game 6.7 (#115) Opp Steals/Game 5.6 (#89)
Steals/Play 8.4% (#115) Opp Steals/Play 6.7% (#66)
Turnovers/Game 13.9 (#201) Opp Turnovers/Game 15.1 (#63)
Turnovers/Play 16.7% (#187) Opp Turnovers/Play 18.7% (#59)
Georgia Offense Rank Defense Rank
Points/Game 77.3 (#74) Opp Points/Game 73.2 (#192)
Assists/Game 14.6 (#87) Opp Assists/Game 12.1 (#96)
Total Rebounds/Game 41.6 (#9) Opp Total Rebounds/Game 36.2 (#217)
Assists/FGM 0.550 (#94) Opp Assists/FGM 0.460 (#52)
Assists/Turnover 0.905 (#224) Opp Assists/Turnover 1.034 (#214)
Effective FG % 52.6% (#109) Opp Effective FG % 45.2% (#21)
Free Throw % 72.5% (#97) Opp Free Throw % 69.5% (#157)
Three Point % 33.1% (#214) Opp Three Point % 30.8% (#51)
Two Point % 54.2% (#78) Opp Two Point % 44.5% (#21)
Shooting % 46.5% (#73) Opp Shooting % 39.4% (#22)
Shooting Efficiency 1.115 (#101) Opp Shooting Efficiency 0.981 (#24)
3PM/Game 6.9 (#244) Opp 3PM/Game 7.7 (#184)
3PA/Game 20.7 (#238) Opp 3PA/Game 24.9 (#287)
Off Rebounds/Game 9.4 (#98) Opp Off Rebounds/Game 10.3 (#313)
Def Rebounds/Game 28.2 (#10) Opp Def Rebounds/Game 21.7 (#63)
Off Rebound % 30.2% (#71) Opp Off Rebound % 26.7% (#184)
Def Rebound % 73.3% (#184) Opp Def Rebound % 69.8% (#71)
Blocks/Game 6.5 (#2) Opp Blocks/Game 2.7 (#60)
Block % 9.7% (#7) Opp Block % 4.7% (#61)
Steals/Game 5.8 (#223) Opp Steals/Game 7.0 (#273)
Steals/Play 6.7% (#259) Opp Steals/Play 8.2% (#240)
Turnovers/Game 16.1 (#332) Opp Turnovers/Game 11.7 (#298)
Turnovers/Play 18.9% (#305) Opp Turnovers/Play 13.6% (#327)

Bettings Trends

The Wildcats opened as a touchdown favorite at Georgia, as oddsmakers are giving the road team a seven-point cushion. Unfortunately, Kentucky is 6-9 against the spread this season, while Georgia is 10-5.

  • Kentucky is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games
  • Kentucky is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky’s last 6 games
  • Kentucky is 1-1 ATS in its last 2 away games
  • Kentucky is 5-6 ATS in its last 11 games following a win
  • Georgia is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Georgia’s last 7 games
  • Georgia is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games at home
  • Georgia is 1-0 ATS as an underdog at home this season
  • Georgia is 3-2 ATS in its last 5 games after losing

Prediction

The Wildcats have fallen behind by double digits early in each of their previous two games. While they’ve managed to rally back and win both, they also were at home and didn’t have the additional challenge of dealing with a road crowd. On Tuesday, sound execution out of the gate will be necessary at both ends of the court.

Though Hagans, Herro and Quickley have handled most of the team’s offensive load since SEC play began, this matchup will call for both Travis and Washington to hold their own in the painted area. Along with effectively rebounding the basketball, both big men will need to assert themselves on offense.

Kentucky is plenty good enough to win, but should face a few bumps before the clock hits zero.

Final Score: Kentucky 72, Georgia 68