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Kentucky Football vs. Florida Gators: Analysis, Expert Picks and Predictions

A look at what oddsmakers and experts have to say about Kentucky Wildcats vs. Florida Gators.

Jason Marcum - Sea of Blue

Headlines, phone conversations and Twitter timelines have been flooded this week with “The Streak.” For members of the Kentucky Wildcats football team, however, there’s been one message: win.

The streak of losing to the Florida Gators is the past, and this weekend is now.

It’s no secret that Kentucky melted in the fourth quarter of last year’s game with the Gators. It’s also no secret that they had a commanding 27-14 lead with eight minutes left.

If one or two decisions by Kentucky are changed, we may talk about Kentucky starting their own winning streak this weekend.

With Dan Mullen in only his second game at Florida, the Cats have the systematic advantage. They also have the more dynamic, physical running game and arguably just as good of weapons on the outside.

The Cats’ veteran defense is right there with Florida’s, so what’s missing?

Starting quarterback Terry Wilson didn’t have the most promising season opener against an opponent and in an environment that pales in comparison to what he’ll face on Saturday night.

However, with the first game jitters out of the way as well as another week of practice, Wilson might be able to do enough for the rush attack and defense to carry the Cats victory.

Betting Trends

  • Kentucky is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
  • Kentucky is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 SEC matchups
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kentucky’s last 7 games against a team with a winning record
  • Kentucky is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kentucky’s last 7 games
  • Kentucky is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
  • Kentucky is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kentucky’s last 6 games on the road
  • Florida is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Florida is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
  • Florida is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home
  • Florida is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
  • Kentucky is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Florida
  • Kentucky is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Florida
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kentucky’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Florida

Expert Picks

Four of seven voters from CBS Sports picked Kentucky to COVER the +14.5 point spread, while OddsShark predicts a cover as well. However, those same CBS experts all predict Florida to win, as does OddsShark, who projects a 30-18 Gators win.

TeamRankings is projecting a 32-20 win for Florida, while numberFire is going with a 28-17 Florida win.

Athlon predicts a 37-17 win for Florida, while College Football News has the Gators winning 31-15.

Prediction

My pick: On September 8th, 2018, Gators fans will watch their winning streak over Kentucky end. Benny Snell will lead his team into The Swamp and carry the Wildcats to victory, 24-20.


How do you see Saturday’s matchup playing out?