Earlier this year, I predicted Kentucky to go 6-6 overall and 3-5 in the SEC. Considering the fact that the Wildcats have matched those win totals already with four games remaining, I figured it was time to revise my predictions. So, here is how I see the rest of the season going down.
Ole Miss at Kentucky - November 4th
After the debacle at Mississippi State a few weeks ago, I think having this game at home is huge for Kentucky. Ole Miss has been shaky at best this season, but they seem to really struggle on the road and have gone 0-3 in such match-ups.
The Rebels have an overall record of 3-5 and are currently sitting at 1-4 in the SEC with their lone victory coming at home in a shootout (57-35) against Vanderbilt. Last week, they blew a 24 point lead against Arkansas. You would have to think that any confidence they had was erased with the Razorbacks absolutely dominating the last two and a half quarters on Saturday.
Vegas says Kentucky is a 4.5 point favorite, the ESPN Power Index gives Kentucky a 61.1% chance of winning, and I am going to agree with both of those predictions and give the Wildcats the nod at home.
Kentucky at Vanderbilt - November 11th
Make no mistake, Vanderbilt is a solid football team. But after losing five straight (all SEC) games, you have to wonder about their confidence level at this point. Ever since the “we want Bama” claim, the Commodores seem to have bitten off more than they can chew.
However, this will be only the third road SEC game for the Wildcats and the last one went very poorly in Starkville. This is a winnable game for either team, and while the ESPN Power Index gives Kentucky a 52.1% chance of winning, I am not sure they get it done in Nashville. I think Vanderbilt wins this one.
Kentucky at Georgia - November 18th
I vividly remember Kentucky beating #1 LSU in 2007. I was on the edge of my seat when the Wildcats overcame being a 28 point underdog to knock off Louisville last season. Besides maybe the Alabama game last year, I remember very few games that seemed less winnable than beating Georgia this season.
Georgia is clicking on all cylinders and looks like Bama-east this season. The only close game this year was a one point victory at Notre Dame, and that win looks better and better every week. ESPN says Georgia has a 95.6% chance of winning. That sounds about right. I think Nick Chubb already has 100 rushing yards.
Louisville at Kentucky - November 25th
Although both teams are very different from last season, Louisville is still likely to be favored in this match-up, even at
Commonwealth Stadium Kroger Field. ESPN lists Louisville as having a 66.2% chance of winning, and I would guess they will open as a 4-5 point favorite.
While the Cardinals have played a more difficult schedule than Kentucky and their status is likely boosted by a win over a reeling Florida State team, the trajectories for these teams could not be more different.
Outside of Lamar Jackson, who is still putting up amazing numbers, Louisville seems to lack an identity on both sides of the ball. They were absolutely demolished by Wake Forest last week, who has looked pretty average throughout the season.
At home, last game of the season, with Stephen Johnson having one last stand to prove he is who Kentucky fans think he is...I think the Cats win and bring home the Governor’s Cup and finish 8-4.
Kickoff against Ole Miss will be at 4:00 p.m. this Saturday with coverage on the SEC Network. Can Kentucky improve to 7-2?