Since we’re now past the halfway point of the Kentucky Football season, and with racing in full swing at Keeneland in Lexington, I thought we could do a little handicapping of a different kind - for the SEC East title race.
Despite a devastating, one-point loss to Florida in Week 4 Kentucky is still a legitimate contender in the hunt for its first-ever SEC East title, after the Gators suffered their second consecutive conference loss to Texas A&M Saturday. With a 2-1 conference record, Kentucky now control its own destiny with five SEC games remaining, including a date with the #3-ranked Georgia Bulldogs in Athens on November 18. And even if Kentucky isn’t able to make it to Atlanta, there’s still a solid chance the Cats can conquer a significant feat they haven’t accomplished since 1977: post a winning record in conference play.
The Wildcats have finished with a .500 winning percentage in the SEC just six times since the 1977 season, going 3-3 in 1984 and 4-4 in 1993, ’98, ’99, 2006, and 2016. UK’s road to SEC Championship game is a long one, and I’m listing them as the third choice as of October 16, 2017. Here’s a look at the full list of contenders along with my projected odds:
GEORGIA 7-0 (4-0 SEC)
Projected odds to win the East: 3-2
SEC Results:
Defeated Mississippi State, 31-3; Tennessee, 41-0; Vanderbilt, 45-14; and Missouri, 53-28.
Remaining SEC Schedule:
· 10/28 vs. Florida
· 11/4 vs. South Carolina
· 11/11 at #21 Auburn
· 11/18 vs. Kentucky
Projected SEC Record: 7-1
Georgia is still very much the team to beat after winning their first four conference games by a combined score of 170-45. Judging by Florida’s last two performances, the Bulldogs should be a significant favorite against the Gators on October 28. But it is a rivalry game, and who knows how each team will come out of a bye in Week 7?
I think Georgia slips up in one of its last four conference games and finishes 7-1. Even though Auburn showed its vulnerability by losing to LSU last weekend, I expect it to still be a tough environment for Georgia when the two teams meet in Auburn on November 11.
FLORIDA 3-3 (3-2 SEC)
Projected odds to win the East: 12-1
SEC Results:
Defeated Tennessee, 26-20; Kentucky, 28-27; and Vanderbilt, 38-24. Lost to LSU, 16-17; and Texas A&M, 17-19.
Remaining SEC Schedule:
· 10/28 vs. #3 Georgia
· 11/4 at Missouri
· 11/11 at South Carolina
Projected SEC Record: 5-3
Florida has to beat Georgia to keep their hopes at a third-straight conference championship bid alive, which is a tall task. But even if the Gators lose to the Dawgs in Jacksonville, they should be able to dominate Missouri, and I still give Florida the slight edge over South Carolina.
If the Gators hypothetically finish 5-3, Kentucky must go 4-1 in its five remaining SEC games in order to finish ahead of Florida. Is that possible? Keep reading to find out...
KENTUCKY 5-1 (2-1 SEC)
Projected odds to win the East: 15-1
SEC Results:
Defeated South Carolina, 23-13; and Missouri, 40-34. Lost to Florida, 27-28.
Remaining SEC Schedule:
· 10/21 at Mississippi State
· 10/28 vs. Tennessee
· 11/4 vs. Ole Miss
· 11/11 at Vanderbilt
· 11/18 at #5 Georgia
Projected SEC Record: 5-3
Kentucky opened as a 10.5-point underdog at Mississippi State this Saturday. If the Cats are able to pull off an upset in Starkville, they will pass Florida and become the second choice in my projections. Absent a complete meltdown on the road Saturday, Kentucky should be favored in home games against Tennessee and Ole Miss, and on the road at Vandy. I think it’s improbable that the Cats can upset Georgia in Athens, but not impossible. Both Georgia and Kentucky have improved since last season. Kentucky had plenty of opportunities to knock off Georgia at home in 2016, but came up just three points short.
Starkville will present a tough environment for the Wildcats, but UK looks to be well-rested off a bye headed into Saturday. But what if somehow Kentucky were to win all four of its next four games? The Cats could be traveling to Athens with a chance to win the SEC East against a team it should have beaten in Lexington a year ago!
SOUTH CAROLINA 5-2 (3-2 SEC)
Projected odds to win the East: 25-1
SEC Results:
Defeated Missouri, 31-13; Arkansas, 48-22; and Tennessee, 15-9. Lost to Kentucky, 13-23; and Texas A&M, 17-24.
Remaining SEC Schedule:
· 10/28 vs. Vanderbilt
· 11/4 at Georgia
· 11/11 vs. Florida
Projected SEC Record: 4-4
South Carolina’s victory at Tennessee was huge for Coach Muschamp and company. The Gamecocks should be favored at home against Vanderbilt on October 28, and I expect them to win that. I could see them giving Georgia a decent game, but ultimately falling short. Florida at home to end conference play will be another huge opportunity. I would not be surprised if Carolina finishes 5-3 in SEC play, but I’m leaving them at 4-4 for now.
TENNESSEE 3-3 (0-3 SEC)
Projected odds to win the East: 100-1
SEC Results:
Lost to Florida, 20-26; Georgia, 0-41; and South Carolina, 9-15.
Remaining SEC Schedule:
· 10/21 at Alabama
· 10/28 at Kentucky
· 11/11 at Missouri
· 11/18 vs. LSU
· 11/25 vs. Vanderbilt
Projected SEC Record: 2-6
Since the SEC first staged a conference championship game in 1992, only one SEC East team has won the division having lost three conference games: South Carolina in 2010. Tennessee is not going to beat Alabama at Alabama, therefore they will be 0-4 in conference play after this Saturday. Hard to see Butch Jones as the Tennessee Coach after this season ends.
VANDERBILT 3-4 (0-4 SEC)
Projected odds to win the East: 200-1
SEC Results:
Lost to Alabama, 0-59; Florida, 24-38; Georgia, 14-45; and Ole Miss, 35-57.
Remaining SEC Schedule:
· 10/28 at South Carolina
· 11/11 vs. Kentucky
· 11/18 vs. Missouri
· 11/25 at Tennessee
Projected SEC Record: 2-6
Four losses is not going to get it done, although I think Vanderbilt could potentially win two or three of their last four SEC match-ups.
MISSOURI 1-5 (0-4 SEC)
Projected odds to win the East: 300-1
SEC Results:
Lost to South Carolina, 13-31; Auburn, 14-51; Kentucky, 34-40; and Georgia, 28-53.
Remaining SEC Schedule:
· 11/4 vs. Florida
· 11/11 vs. Tennessee
· 11/18 at Vanderbilt
· 11/24 at Arkansas
Projected SEC Record: 1-7
Mizzou might get one SEC win. Two wouldn’t be that crazy.