UK's passing game was inconsistent last season due to a variety of factors. For only completing 55% of passes, UK's still had the sixth most passing yards in the SEC sandwiched in between National Champion Alabama and three-win South Carolina. That was the "boom" part of the equation.
The "or bust" part was UK only achieving a putrid 6.3 yards per attempt. None of UK's skill players finished in the top 100 nationally for receiving yards. There's more to the passing game than any one position, and UK does return every player in the receiver and tight end two-deep, but the results were frustrating because the potential was apparent.
Keying in on the receiver position to begin, Garret Johnson and Dorian Baker as sophomores had production comparable to Randall Cobb's sophomore season and Chris Matthew's junior season in 2009.
That seems cause for celebration until their numbers are compared against the rest of the country. The chart created by Bill Connelly shows for the rate Johnson and Baker were targeted, they fared poorly compared to the countries other top receivers. Baker was below average in catch rate, yards per catch, and yards per target. Johnson fared slightly better, but was below average in catch rate.
The sheer number of drops that arrived after the first half of the season are reflected in these numbers and seared into our memories; however, recall the enthusiasm from only a few months prior:
Cats loaded with options at WR right now, coaches think competition is leading to some amazing grabs.
— Jeff Drummond (@JDrumUK) August 18, 2015
Hindsight may initially suggest this perception was the creation of a marriage between UK apparatchik talking points later proliferated by a media echo chamber. Easily digestible false narratives that plays on the heartstrings akin to the late Joker Phillips era. And yet, this was not a controversial view at the time based on open practice accounts during spring ball and fall camp. This was the widely held perception - witnessed by fans, media, insiders alike - that got flipped on its head by November.
UK's receivers didn't suddenly develop a case of the Butterfingers. The explanation is likely more banal. They developed bad habits as the season reached October and November. They lost focus as the season progressed, and quit to varying degrees during varying points of varying games. This happened at multiple positions across the team, but few roles are so fully on display like a receiver's. Nothing is more public than dropping a pass to the groans of an entire stadium before it even gets replayed on the Jumbotron and you have to relive it.
Further compounding the issue was their potential misuse. After looking through 2014 data of total touches, targets, catch rate, and yards per catch I drew this conclusion the previous spring:
...Unless a significant amount of development occurs on the outside, UK probably won't be known as a consistent home-run hitting team next season. UK should, however, be dangerous in the backfield, and will be poised to exploit mismatches on linebackers and safeties by the inside receivers along the seams. If safeties have to roll up to negate running backs coming out of the backfield, or slot receivers taking advantage of linebackers, then the outside receivers will definitely have their opportunities to excel.
This was the exact opposite of what occurred. Shannon Dawson used the long ball to set up the run, and short passing game. This strategy paid off pretty well the first few weeks of the season, but defenses adjusted and the quality of play improved. By the time Dawson adjusted around the Georgia game it was too late. The offense had largely checked out.
There were drops - far too many - but the personnel were also mismanaged, resentment festered, and a pebble became a boulder speeding down a hill with abandon. Youth on the outside proved incapable of being stars who initiated the offense (without raising the fact the offensive line couldn't hold blocks to give the time for them either). Their failings are their own, but there weren't put in a schematic position to succeed either.
If they have mentally reengaged for 2016, they will catch balls, and their talents will be present to everyone again just in time to jump on the bandwagon. This is a position Mark Stoops has recruited the best after defensive backs. They have potential and the leaders are now upperclassmen. The time is now.
[Note: I've been unable to find Eddie Gran's nomenclature for receivers. Below is last season's which will probably be different. Furthermore, several players rotated positions throughout season, so the projected position is very loose categorizing.]
Depth Chart Discussion
Outside Receiver
Projected Depth Chart | Name | Projected Position | 2015 Season Stats |
1 |
Dorian Baker (JR) |
X | 55 catches, 608 yards, 3 TD's |
1 |
Jeff Badet (JR) |
Z | 29 catches, 430 yards, 2 TD's |
2 | Kayaune Ross (SO) |
Z | N/A |
2 | Jabari Greenwood (RS FR) |
X | N/A |
3 |
Blake Bone (JR) |
Z |
20 catches, 210 yards, 1 TD |
This group features three juniors, a JUCO transfer, and a redshirt freshman. The only player shorter than 6'3'' is Badet listed at 6'0''. If development occurs in this group, Baker's target rate probably dips slightly while total number of catches increases. Regression would look like last season's numbers. Plurality helps the offense by preventing defenses from keying on only one outside receiver.
Inside Receiver
Projected Depth Chart | Name | Projected Position | 2015 Season Stats |
1 |
Garrett Johnson (JR) |
H | 46 catches, 694 yards, 2 TD's |
1 |
Tavin Richardson (RS FR) |
Y/Z | N/A |
2 |
Ryan Timmons (SR) |
H | 12 catches, 114 yards, 1 TD |
2 |
Alexander Montgomery (JR) |
Y | 3 catches, 18 yards |
3 |
Charles Walker (JR) |
H | 5 catches, 61 yards |
3 | Dakota Holtzclaw (FR) |
Y/X | N/A |
The inside receivers also need more across-the-board production. Timmons' first disappointing year in the Blue and White has almost made him an afterthought heading into his senior season. Montgomery's injury-ridden time in Lexington has prevented real development, and its an open question as to whether or not his knee injury suffered against Vandy will have him back in time for fall camp [note: Montgomery not listed on July's depth chart]. These factors open up the possibility for young receivers like Richardson and Holtzclaw to gain early playing time. Tight end CJ Conrad will also see snaps at the Y position.
Tight End
Projected Depth Chart | Name | 2015 Season Stats |
1 | CJ Conrad (SO) |
15 catches, 149 yards, 1 TD |
2 |
Greg Hart (SO) |
N/A |
3 |
Daryl Long (RS SO) |
N/A |
4 |
Justin Rigg (FR) |
N/A |
CJ Conrad
The true sophomore looks to build on a strong freshman season, and is perhaps the offense's best weapon. Conrad may have been under-utilized - partly by necessity to help pass protection, but also partly hard to say without complete knowledge of play calls and scrimmage audibles - but the freshman started every game and got the majority of snaps. If he wasn't targeted on purpose, he sure did see the field a lot which undermines the narrative the coaches ignored him. In any case, he had good production numbers, and impressed with his blocking as a true freshman.
What constitutes a strong sophomore season for Conrad? Two possible comparisons are South Carolina's Jerell Adams and Arkansas' Hunter Henry who were respectively selected in the 6th and 2nd rounds of the NFL Draft. They were SEC tight ends that were featured partly due to being on teams without multiple play-makers at receiver. Adams finished his senior season with 28 catches, 420 yards, and three touchdowns. Henry had 51 catches, 739 yards, and three touchdowns.
I think a successful sophomore season is doubling his production. This would put him on par with Adams, and set the table for the sort of junior season that would make him ponder leaving early.
The Rest of The Merry Band
The rest of this crew doesn't look like much, but it has come a long way in the previous years. Hart redshirted last season, and Conrad talked about how hard he pushed himself in the weightroom during the fall since transfers and redshirts continue to lift during the season. He showed promised during the spring practice I attended. Coming out of high school, former UK assistant Greg Nord recruited Hart, but he would go on to redshirt at Nebraska. Whether Hart develops into NFL talent is anyone's guess, but he'll be an important contributor likely in non-flashy ways in 2016.
Not much is known about Long, but he's been in the program for two years now. His contributions may mostly come on special teams, while Rigg is a true freshman with a 6'6'' frame that will likely redshirt in 2016. If he puts on good weight, he may outgrow this position, and eventually end up as an athletic offensive tackle. Time will tell for both young players.
Fantasy Buys
Let's say you're into college fantasy football. Let's also say one of your leagues is just for the SEC. Would you draft any of these players?
Conrad is a good late round pick for an eight person league in a SEC league, but for leagues with more members he has value in the mid-rounds. In a national league he's worth a late round pick. Conrad will be targeted in the red zone a lot in 2016, and most of his receptions will probably be over 10 yards for bonus points. He'll likely also be harder to solo tackle this season which should see his yards after catch improve.
Baker and Johnson are both solid late round picks for a SEC league. They both have upside, both averaged over 10 yards per catch last season, and both are poised to be options 1 and 1A in the passing game this season.
Outlook
The tight end position looks solid. Their play will help move the chains if properly utilized in play-action, and when exploiting mismatches. The receivers have potential, but a new position coach and offensive coordinator will have to unlock it. Given new receiver coach Lamar Thomas' track record with UofL's receivers last season there is cause to expect moderate improvement in 2016.
******
Thursday's post will preview the young upstarts that comprise the inside linebacking corps.