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Word has come down from on high (Twitter, of course) that 2014 #1 point guard Emmanuel Mudiay will be making his college choice tomorrow at the Under Armor Elite 24. This is definitely big news, because Mudiay is John Calipari's #1 target a point guard. The buzz on Mudiay has been that he's Kentucky's to lose for some time now.
Emmanuel Mudiay told Scout that he is announcing his college decision tomorrow from Elite 24.
— Evan Daniels (@EvanDanielsFOX) August 23, 2013
However, there is a fly in the ointment. A week or so ago, Mudiay tweeted that he was going to "shock the world:"
Mudiay tweeted last week that he was going to "shock the world"...SMU would be shock. But he is a Calipari type PG. don't know what he does
— Matt Jones (@KySportsRadio) August 23, 2013
The reckoning by the experts is that maybe Mudiay will pick Southern Methodist (where the legendary Larry Brown coaches, in case you've forgotten) over Kentucky. Here's Evan Daniels' reasoning:
Put it this way: Mudiay was supposed to go to UK in Oct. Has been to SMU @ least 5 times. UK recently offered another Ulis. Adding things up
— Evan Daniels (@EvanDanielsFOX) August 23, 2013
He has a point there, but applying logic to what these young men do is a position fraught with peril. If it was a done deal to Kentucky, nobody except Wildcat fans would be watching the Elite 24 tomorrow with any particular interest. He could just be raising interest in the event, or, he could very much be headed to SMU or even Baylor.
In the end, if Calipari loses a Texas recruit to a legendary coach (if not program) in Texas, well, that's just the way these things sometimes go. You can't win them all, even if you are John Freaking Calipari. Sometimes, you just lose players. A perfect example would be Shabazz Muhammad. Calipari didn't let him go, he just picked UCLA over UK, pure and simple, and geography had its part to play if you believe the postmortems. Similar situation with Andrew Wiggins, although it's doubtful geography had anything to do with that one -- more likely a surfeit of talent at UK.
So keep your hopes up, but don't be freaked out if Mudiay does "shock the world." It does happen, has happened, and will happen again. Recruiting is not an exact science.