I wanted to do each one of these regions in a separate post, but unfortunately, time caught up with me. Instead, we will look at the log5 of each region I have not yet covered and talk a bit about the best likely matchups.
Keep in mind that the log5 is just a mathematical formula, and is tantamount to playing the games on paper. Fortunately for all us fans, the NCAA requires that the teams actually settle the matter on the basketball court rather than by computer or human rankings. That's one thing that makes the NCAA Basketball championships so exciting.
We'll begin after the jump.
| 2011 Southwest Regional | |||||||
| Team | Pyth. Win % | Second Round | Sweet Sixteen | Regional Final | Final Four | ||
| Seed | Raw | Adj. | |||||
| 1 | Kansas | 0.971 | 97.39% | 73.75% | 53.68% | 35.91% | 31.93% |
| 16 | Boston U | 0.4726 | 2.61% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | UNLV | 0.9121 | 48.37% | 12.31% | 5.74% | 6.22% | 5.53% |
| 9 | Illinois | 0.9172 | 51.63% | 13.75% | 6.62% | 9.53% | 8.47% |
| 4 | Louisville | 0.944 | 88.48% | 62.06% | 25.32% | 12.93% | 11.50% |
| 13 | Morehead St. | 0.687 | 11.52% | 2.71% | 0.25% | 0.04% | 0.03% |
| 5 | Vanderbilt | 0.8882 | 55.90% | 20.89% | 5.31% | 3.10% | 2.76% |
| 12 | Richmond | 0.8624 | 44.10% | 14.34% | 3.07% | 1.29% | 1.15% |
| 3 | Purdue | 0.9547 | 92.56% | 70.78% | 43.37% | 21.45% | 19.07% |
| 14 | St. Peter's | 0.6288 | 7.44% | 1.70% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.02% |
| 6 | Georgetown | 0.8893 | 75.49% | 23.92% | 9.34% | 2.66% | 2.36% |
| 11 | VCU | 0.7229 | 24.51% | 3.61% | 0.66% | 0.08% | 0.07% |
| 7 | Texas A&M | 0.8631 | 49.23% | 14.78% | 4.54% | 1.09% | 0.97% |
| 10 | Florida St. | 0.8667 | 50.77% | 15.54% | 4.87% | 1.20% | 1.06% |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 0.9478 | 92.22% | 68.18% | 36.85% | 16.94% | 15.06% |
| 15 | Akron | 0.6049 | 7.78% | 1.50% | 0.16% | 0.01% | 0.01% |
| 800.00% | 400.00% | 200.00% | 112.47% | 100.00% | |||
The Kansas Jayhawks are a strong favorite in this region, but amazingly, the least likely to get into the Final Four. Louisville has a relatively low percentage to get to the Final Four. Matchups I'd like to see:
- Louisville Cardinals and Kansas in the regional semis. That would be a very interesting game.
- I love the Vanderbilt Commodores-Richmond Spiders game. Upset danger there.
- The potential Florida St. Seminoles-Notre Dame Fighting Irish matchup looks intriguing, if the Seminoles have Singleton back.
| 2011 West Regional | |||||||
| Team | Pyth. Win % | Second Round | Sweet Sixteen | Regional Final | Final Four | ||
| Seed | Raw | Adj. | |||||
| 1 | Duke | 0.9759 | 98.64% | 85.96% | 58.91% | 42.98% | 42.94% |
| 16 | Hampton | 0.3591 | 1.36% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Michigan | 0.8696 | 56.71% | 8.62% | 2.56% | 0.85% | 0.85% |
| 9 | Tennessee | 0.8358 | 43.29% | 5.30% | 1.32% | 0.37% | 0.36% |
| 4 | Texas | 0.9627 | 87.47% | 69.50% | 31.17% | 19.83% | 19.82% |
| 13 | Oakland | 0.7871 | 12.53% | 4.74% | 0.60% | 0.13% | 0.13% |
| 5 | Arizona | 0.8911 | 77.40% | 22.98% | 5.19% | 1.97% | 1.97% |
| 12 | Memphis | 0.7049 | 22.60% | 2.79% | 0.25% | 0.04% | 0.04% |
| 3 | Connecticut | 0.9277 | 84.54% | 49.69% | 22.66% | 7.02% | 7.02% |
| 14 | Bucknell | 0.7012 | 15.46% | 3.22% | 0.47% | 0.04% | 0.04% |
| 6 | Cincinnati | 0.9113 | 57.96% | 29.08% | 11.79% | 3.16% | 3.15% |
| 11 | Missouri | 0.8817 | 42.04% | 18.00% | 6.05% | 1.29% | 1.29% |
| 7 | Temple | 0.8756 | 51.02% | 14.43% | 5.86% | 1.20% | 1.20% |
| 10 | Penn St. | 0.8711 | 48.98% | 13.49% | 5.35% | 1.06% | 1.06% |
| 2 | San Diego St. | 0.9558 | 93.59% | 70.95% | 47.67% | 20.14% | 20.12% |
| 15 | Northern Colorado | 0.5971 | 6.41% | 1.13% | 0.15% | 0.01% | 0.01% |
| 800.00% | 400.00% | 200.00% | 100.09% | 100.00% | |||
Duke has a slightly better chance at getting to the Final Four Than Kansas. Look at UConn's low percentage into the Final Four. Interesting matchups:
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Tennessee Volunteers. This one just looks like a lot of fun. I have no idea who will win this.
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Missouri Tigers: I sense real upset potential here.
- Potential Duke Blue Devils-Texas Longhorns meeing in the Sweet Sixteen.
| 2011 Southwest Regional | |||||||
| Team | Pyth. Win % | Second Round | Sweet Sixteen | Regional Final | Final Four | ||
| Seed | Raw | Adj. | |||||
| 1 | Pittsburgh | 0.9594 | 95.13% | 77.64% | 48.54% | 32.94% | 32.96% |
| 16 | N.C. Ashville | 0.5477 | 4.87% | 0.90% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.01% |
| 8 | Butler | 0.8391 | 49.01% | 10.37% | 2.85% | 0.93% | 0.93% |
| 9 | Old Dominion | 0.8444 | 50.99% | 11.09% | 3.14% | 1.05% | 1.05% |
| 4 | Wisconsin | 0.951 | 60.73% | 39.41% | 20.77% | 13.20% | 13.21% |
| 13 | Belmont | 0.9262 | 39.27% | 21.43% | 9.17% | 4.86% | 4.87% |
| 5 | Kansas St. | 0.8894 | 39.43% | 13.06% | 4.36% | 1.85% | 1.85% |
| 12 | Utah St. | 0.9251 | 60.57% | 26.10% | 11.08% | 5.83% | 5.84% |
| 3 | BYU | 0.9388 | 85.63% | 56.58% | 35.41% | 16.59% | 16.60% |
| 14 | Wofford | 0.7203 | 14.37% | 3.55% | 0.82% | 0.11% | 0.11% |
| 6 | St. Johns | 0.8814 | 47.29% | 18.26% | 8.31% | 2.54% | 2.54% |
| 11 | Gonzaga | 0.8923 | 52.71% | 21.61% | 10.39% | 3.41% | 3.41% |
| 7 | UCLA | 0.8348 | 43.41% | 14.93% | 4.77% | 1.11% | 1.12% |
| 10 | Michigan St. | 0.8682 | 56.59% | 22.64% | 8.54% | 2.41% | 2.41% |
| 2 | Florida | 0.9242 | 89.52% | 60.36% | 31.51% | 13.05% | 13.06% |
| 15 | UCSB | 0.588 | 10.48% | 2.06% | 0.25% | 0.02% | 0.02% |
| 800.00% | 400.00% | 200.00% | 99.92% | 100.00% | |||
Pittsburgh is the second least likely of the four #1 seeds to get to the Final Four. Lots of upset picks in this bracket:
- Butler-Old Dominion. The log5 likes the upset.
- Belmont-Wisconsin. This looks more like an upset from the outside than using the numbers.
- Kansas St.-Utah State: Again, log5 picks an upset.
- Gonzaga-St. Johns: Another upset pick.
- Michigan St.-UCLA: Yet another upset pick.
- BYU-St. Johns would be an interesting second-round game.