Now that the Kentucky Wildcats are in the SEC Finals is over, and Kentucky's bid for a 3-seed is still alive. What we will do briefly here is take a look at the difference between what a 4 and a three seed might mean by using 2 speculative components: Joe Lunardi's very latest bracketology (as of about 4:00 PM today), Ken Pomery's pythagorean winning percentage, and the Log5 formula. For an explanation of the Log5 calculation, go here.
What we will do for this exercise is use the Log5 spreadsheet (given to me sometime back by KYVampyre) to calculate the percentage chances for Kentucky to get to each round of the tournament as a 4 seed. Then, we will flip the 3 and 4 seeds to see what the difference in chances would be with the better seed.
Lunardi currently has Kentucky as a 4 seed in the West (I sure hope that doesn't happen, geographically) in the same bracket as the Pittsburgh Panthers, BYU Cougars, and Connecticut Huskies. Of course, Lunardi may get a lot of teams right in the tournament, but his brackes rarely resemble the real thing -- that's just too much to ask of anyone. But for this exercise, it really doesn't matter much. We'll get to it after the break.
Okay, here is the Log5 of Lunardi's current bracket containing Kentucky:
| West | |||||||
| Team | Pyth. Win % | Second Round | Sweet Sixteen | Regional Final | Final Four | ||
| Raw | Adj. | ||||||
| 1 | Pittsburgh | 0.9598 | 96.27% | 74.07% | 47.94% | 30.78% | 30.68% |
| 16 | Boston U | 0.4803 | 3.73% | 0.43% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Old Dominion | 0.872 | 47.68% | 11.76% | 4.21% | 1.51% | 1.51% |
| 9 | Michigan St. | 0.882 | 52.32% | 13.74% | 5.21% | 1.98% | 1.98% |
| 4 | Kentucky | 0.9482 | 83.02% | 57.40% | 29.20% | 16.95% | 16.90% |
| 13 | Oakland | 0.7892 | 16.98% | 5.39% | 1.03% | 0.24% | 0.24% |
| 5 | Texas A&M | 0.8651 | 40.29% | 13.00% | 3.65% | 1.26% | 1.26% |
| 12 | Clemson | 0.9048 | 59.71% | 24.22% | 8.72% | 3.84% | 3.83% |
| 3 | Connecticut | 0.9257 | 87.80% | 55.57% | 25.61% | 10.86% | 10.83% |
| 14 | Kent St. | 0.6339 | 12.20% | 2.39% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.03% |
| 6 | Kansas St. | 0.8941 | 59.91% | 27.31% | 10.10% | 3.41% | 3.40% |
| 11 | Richmond | 0.8496 | 40.09% | 14.72% | 4.19% | 1.08% | 1.08% |
| 7 | Georgetown | 0.89 | 36.56% | 13.21% | 6.06% | 1.99% | 1.98% |
| 10 | Washington | 0.9335 | 63.44% | 30.67% | 18.14% | 8.20% | 8.17% |
| 2 | BYU | 0.9482 | 88.11% | 53.97% | 35.19% | 18.12% | 18.07% |
| 15 | Long Beach St. | 0.7119 | 11.89% | 2.15% | 0.46% | 0.06% | 0.06% |
| 800.00% | 400.00% | 200.00% | 100.32% | 100.00% | |||
Looking at this, Kentucky has an 83% chance of getting through to the second round, a 57% chance of getting through to the Sweet Sixteen, and a 29% chance of getting to the Elite Eight. They wind up with only a 17% chance of getting to the Final Four. The Pittsburgh Panthers, the 1 seed, have the best chance to get there, the BYU Cougars second and UK third.
Now, let's look at the same bracket, but flip the Connecticut Huskies and the Wildcats:
| West | |||||||
| Team | Pyth. Win % | Second Round | Sweet Sixteen | Regional Final | Final Four | ||
| Raw | Adj. | ||||||
| 1 | Pittsburgh | 0.9598 | 96.27% | 74.07% | 52.68% | 32.07% | 31.97% |
| 16 | Boston U | 0.4803 | 3.73% | 0.43% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Old Dominion | 0.872 | 47.68% | 11.76% | 4.94% | 1.61% | 1.60% |
| 9 | Michigan St. | 0.882 | 52.32% | 13.74% | 6.08% | 2.10% | 2.09% |
| 4 | Connecticut | 0.9257 | 76.89% | 46.50% | 19.52% | 8.83% | 8.80% |
| 13 | Oakland | 0.7892 | 23.11% | 7.33% | 1.40% | 0.29% | 0.29% |
| 5 | Texas A&M | 0.8651 | 40.29% | 16.41% | 4.61% | 1.44% | 1.43% |
| 12 | Clemson | 0.9048 | 59.71% | 29.77% | 10.72% | 4.31% | 4.30% |
| 3 | Kentucky | 0.9482 | 91.36% | 65.44% | 36.25% | 19.60% | 19.54% |
| 14 | Kent St. | 0.6339 | 8.64% | 1.69% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.02% |
| 6 | Kansas St. | 0.8941 | 59.91% | 21.57% | 7.97% | 2.89% | 2.88% |
| 11 | Richmond | 0.8496 | 40.09% | 11.29% | 3.21% | 0.90% | 0.90% |
| 7 | Georgetown | 0.89 | 36.56% | 13.21% | 5.11% | 1.81% | 1.80% |
| 10 | Washington | 0.9335 | 63.44% | 30.67% | 15.78% | 7.55% | 7.53% |
| 2 | BYU | 0.9482 | 88.11% | 53.97% | 31.12% | 16.83% | 16.78% |
| 15 | Long Beach St. | 0.7119 | 11.89% | 2.15% | 0.37% | 0.06% | 0.06% |
| 800.00% | 400.00% | 200.00% | 100.31% | 100.00% | |||
As you can clearly see, the 3 seed is a much better place for the Wildcats to be. Kentucky winds up with almost a 20% chance of getting to the Final Four, second only to Pitt's 32%. Interestingly, Pitt's odds go up in this scenario, and BYU's goes down.
We will perform a similar analysis with accurate numbers once the actual brackets are determined tomorrow.