clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Kentucky Basketball: Kentucky's Seeding Possibilities

Now that the Kentucky Wildcats are in the SEC Finals is over, and Kentucky's bid for a 3-seed is still alive.  What we will do briefly here is take a look at the difference between what a 4 and a three seed might mean by using 2 speculative components:  Joe Lunardi's very latest bracketology (as of about 4:00 PM today), Ken Pomery's pythagorean winning percentage, and the Log5 formula.  For an explanation of the Log5 calculation, go here.

What we will do for this exercise is use the Log5 spreadsheet (given to me sometime back by KYVampyre) to calculate the percentage chances for Kentucky to get to each round of the tournament as a 4 seed.  Then, we will flip the 3 and 4 seeds to see what the difference in chances would be with the better seed.

Lunardi currently has Kentucky as a 4 seed in the West (I sure hope that doesn't happen, geographically) in the same bracket as the Pittsburgh Panthers, BYU Cougars, and Connecticut Huskies.  Of course, Lunardi may get a lot of teams right in the tournament, but his brackes rarely resemble the real thing -- that's just too much to ask of anyone.  But for this exercise, it really doesn't matter much.  We'll get to it after the break.

Okay, here is the Log5 of Lunardi's current bracket containing Kentucky:

West

Team Pyth. Win % Second Round Sweet Sixteen Regional Final Final Four

Raw Adj.
1 Pittsburgh 0.9598 96.27% 74.07% 47.94% 30.78% 30.68%
16 Boston U 0.4803 3.73% 0.43% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Old Dominion 0.872 47.68% 11.76% 4.21% 1.51% 1.51%
9 Michigan St. 0.882 52.32% 13.74% 5.21% 1.98% 1.98%
4 Kentucky 0.9482 83.02% 57.40% 29.20% 16.95% 16.90%
13 Oakland 0.7892 16.98% 5.39% 1.03% 0.24% 0.24%
5 Texas A&M 0.8651 40.29% 13.00% 3.65% 1.26% 1.26%
12 Clemson 0.9048 59.71% 24.22% 8.72% 3.84% 3.83%
3 Connecticut 0.9257 87.80% 55.57% 25.61% 10.86% 10.83%
14 Kent St. 0.6339 12.20% 2.39% 0.27% 0.03% 0.03%
6 Kansas St. 0.8941 59.91% 27.31% 10.10% 3.41% 3.40%
11 Richmond 0.8496 40.09% 14.72% 4.19% 1.08% 1.08%
7 Georgetown 0.89 36.56% 13.21% 6.06% 1.99% 1.98%
10 Washington 0.9335 63.44% 30.67% 18.14% 8.20% 8.17%
2 BYU 0.9482 88.11% 53.97% 35.19% 18.12% 18.07%
15 Long Beach St. 0.7119 11.89% 2.15% 0.46% 0.06% 0.06%



800.00% 400.00% 200.00% 100.32% 100.00%

Looking at this, Kentucky has an 83% chance of getting through to the second round, a 57% chance of getting through to the Sweet Sixteen, and a 29% chance of getting to the Elite Eight.  They wind up with only a 17% chance of getting to the Final Four.  The Pittsburgh Panthers, the 1 seed, have the best chance to get there, the BYU Cougars second and UK third.

Now, let's look at the same bracket, but flip the Connecticut Huskies and the Wildcats:

West

Team Pyth. Win % Second Round Sweet Sixteen Regional Final Final Four

Raw Adj.
1 Pittsburgh 0.9598 96.27% 74.07% 52.68% 32.07% 31.97%
16 Boston U 0.4803 3.73% 0.43% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Old Dominion 0.872 47.68% 11.76% 4.94% 1.61% 1.60%
9 Michigan St. 0.882 52.32% 13.74% 6.08% 2.10% 2.09%
4 Connecticut 0.9257 76.89% 46.50% 19.52% 8.83% 8.80%
13 Oakland 0.7892 23.11% 7.33% 1.40% 0.29% 0.29%
5 Texas A&M 0.8651 40.29% 16.41% 4.61% 1.44% 1.43%
12 Clemson 0.9048 59.71% 29.77% 10.72% 4.31% 4.30%
3 Kentucky 0.9482 91.36% 65.44% 36.25% 19.60% 19.54%
14 Kent St. 0.6339 8.64% 1.69% 0.19% 0.02% 0.02%
6 Kansas St. 0.8941 59.91% 21.57% 7.97% 2.89% 2.88%
11 Richmond 0.8496 40.09% 11.29% 3.21% 0.90% 0.90%
7 Georgetown 0.89 36.56% 13.21% 5.11% 1.81% 1.80%
10 Washington 0.9335 63.44% 30.67% 15.78% 7.55% 7.53%
2 BYU 0.9482 88.11% 53.97% 31.12% 16.83% 16.78%
15 Long Beach St. 0.7119 11.89% 2.15% 0.37% 0.06% 0.06%



800.00% 400.00% 200.00% 100.31% 100.00%

As you can clearly see, the 3 seed is a much better place for the Wildcats to be.  Kentucky winds up with almost a 20% chance of getting to the Final Four, second only to Pitt's 32%.  Interestingly, Pitt's odds go up in this scenario, and BYU's goes down.

We will perform a similar analysis with accurate numbers once the actual brackets are determined tomorrow.