Rider (2-1) @ Kentucky (3-0) -- Pregame Analysis

Today at 1:00 PM, the Broncs of Rider University invade Rupp Arena for the second round game of the Cancun Classic.

Here is some basic information about Rider, courtesy of the Rider Athletics site:

More after the jump

Team analysis and Four Factors (Data by Kenpom.com)

Analysis:

For the third time in a row, UK faces an almost identical opponent, only this opponent has proven their chops by defeating Mississippi State, a school widely expected to win the SEC West and one of the best teams in the country.

Once again, Rider is a David to Kentucky's Goliath.  They are an undersized team from a small school, but they are not without talent and return four of their five starters.  Tell me if you have heard this story before.

Unlike the Wildcats' previous two opponents, Rider has a proven track record of shooting the ball well this year.  Just take a look at their three-point percentage.  Neither Sam Houston St., Miami (Ohio) nor Morehead came in shooting this kind of percentage from three.  I call your attention to the 3PA/FGA statistic  and their distribution of points in the analysis at the top of the page.  Currently, Rider is fourth in all the land in points coming off of 3-point shots.  Given Kentucky's performance in the last three games, that aught to concern all of us.

From the standpoint of working on 3-point defense, UK could hardly get a better opponent, but the obvious risk here is that if the defense does not improve, this is a perfect opportunity for Kentucky to fall.  Rider has been very good at taking care of the ball, as you would expect in an experienced team.  Turnovers will likely be a big part of the story of today's game.

Expect Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins to thrive again in this game, if they bring the energy they brought against Sam Houston St.  Rider will give up the open three in order to keep UK from getting to the rim, so if Eric Bledsoe or perhaps Darnell Dodson (assuming he finds his way back into Coach Cal's good graces) can get warm from outside, UK should have an opportunity from there.

What to watch for:

• UK needs to improve their perimeter defense.  Look for Rider open looks to see if they are making progress.
• Turnovers are an obvious area for improvement.
• Control on the fast break.  If we start seeing more shots in the secondary break versus the primary, I think it will be a big improvement.
• More team play.  So far, this team has been very poor at communicating and helping each other.  Will one day make any difference?
• A better rotation.  I think Cal's rotation has been too short for the pace he is trying to play.  I expect that will change today.

Game prediction:  85-65 Kentucky.

Go, 'Cats!