Jeff Lebo and the Auburn Tiggers (or is it Tigers? I forget.) stalk into Rupp Arena to try to knock off one of the hottest teams in the SEC right now, the undefeated Kentucky Wildcats.
That feels good to say again, doesn't it? Undefeated. It seems like it has been decades, although it's only been a few years, since an opponent coming into Rupp Arena did not cause me major concern. It isn't that I don't think Auburn can beat Kentucky, they most certainly do have what it takes to make that happen. An upset just doesn't seem as likely, for some reason, as it has in the past. It's a good feeling, but it could also be fool's gold.
But more on that later. First, let's look at the Auburn personnel.
Player Statistics (Courtesy of Kenpom.com)
Note: I have adapted the new format Ken Pomeroy is using. I think it is more useful. Particularly noteworthy stats are highlighted in yellow:
| # | Name | Ht | Wt | Yr | G | % Min | % Shots | eFG% | TS % | OR % | DR % | A Rate | TO Rate | Blk % | Stl % | FT Rate | FT% | 2 pt% | 3 pt% |
| Significant Contributors | |||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | DeWayne Reed National Rank |
6'1'' | 175 | Jr | 17 | 77.7 365 | 23.4 | 50.3 | 53.9 | 1.7 | 5 | 25.5 226 | 19.9 | 1.9 | 3.5 176 | 42.6 393 | 0.68 | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| 1 | Korvotney Barber National Rank |
6'7'' | 225 | Sr | 17 | 73.4 | 23.2 | 55.8 253 | 54.1 | 12.9 99 | 20.7 135 | 5.5 | 20.1 | 4.2 254 | 1.5 | 49.1 259 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0 |
| 21 | Rasheem Barrett | 6'5'' | 220 | Sr | 14 | 39.3 | 26.5 | 40.6 | 43.9 | 5 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 20 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 19.8 | 0.75 | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| 30 | Brendan Knox | 6'10'' | 220 | Jr | 13 | 15.8 | 12.4 | 63.2 | 55.1 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 29.9 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 131.6 | 0.4 | 0.63 | 0 |
| Role Players | |||||||||||||||||||
| 23 | Quantez Robertson National Rank |
6'3'' | 200 | Sr | 17 | 79.1 289 | 12.3 | 41.5 | 46.5 | 3.9 | 13.5 | 22.3 353 | 27.2 | 1.4 | 3.3 218 | 69.1 52 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.19 |
| 24 | Tay Waller National Rank |
6'2'' | 180 | Jr | 17 | 69.3 | 25.7 395 | 53.5 398 | 56.4 433 | 0.9 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 12.7 147 | 1.1 | 3.7 126 | 21.4 | 0.81 | 0.5 | 0.36 |
| 4 | Lucas Hargrove National Rank |
6'6'' | 205 | Jr | 17 | 64.1 | 16.9 | 51 | 53.6 | 8.7 | 16.6 451 | 17 | 25.2 | 2.6 491 | 2.7 479 | 41.9 408 | 0.64 | 0.53 | 0.31 |
| 20 | Frankie Sullivan National Rank |
6'1'' | 185 | Fr | 15 | 41.5 | 20.4 | 51.2 | 54.8 | 2 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 18.9 | 0.9 | 5.1 15 | 37.8 | 0.71 | 0.54 | 0.33 |
| Limited Roles | |||||||||||||||||||
| 34 | Johnnie Lett | 6'8'' | 210 | Jr | 16 | 30.7 | 14.1 | 50 | 48.3 | 10.1 | 21.5 | 4.6 | 14.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 59.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0 |
Team Statistics
| Kentucky | Auburn | ||||
| Category | Offense | Defense | Offense | Defense | D-I Avg |
| Adj. Efficiency: | 111.2 [34] | 87.7 [15] | 100.1 [178] | 89.5 [27] | 100.4 |
| Adj. Tempo: | 69.7 [79] | 71.4 [36] | 67.2 | ||
| Four Factors | |||||
| Effective FG%: | 56.2 [7] | 42.0 [5] | 49.9 [132] | 46.8 [94] | 48.8 |
| Turnover %: | 24.3 [314] | 20.8 [172] | 21.2 [207] | 25.6 [14] | 20.9 |
| Off. Reb. %: | 35.3 [105] | 30.4 [76] | 33.0 [181] | 29.3 [45] | 33.3 |
| FTA/FGA: | 41.2 [61] | 33.6 [118] | 41.9 [52] | 42.8 [288] | 36.3 |
| Miscellaneous Components | |||||
| 3P%: | 35.6 [110] | 32.5 [109] | 31.9 [240] | 33.8 [173] | 34 |
| 2P%: | 57.4 [5] | 38.7 [3] | 51.4 [49] | 44.2 [59] | 47.7 |
| FT%: | 79.2 [5] | 69.5 [214] | 60.1 [335] | 65.4 [58] | 68.6 |
| Block%: | 6.4 [32] | 18.4 [2] | 7.8 [100] | 11.0 [78] | 9 |
| Steal%: | 11.1 [264] | 9.4 [210] | 9.8 [172] | 14.6 [4] | 10 |
| Style Components | |||||
| 3PA/FGA: | 30.6 [232] | 32.9 [175] | 40.8 [35] | 39.8 [327] | 33.1 |
| A/FGM: | 62.9 [26] | 44.9 [12] | 58.9 [75] | 54.1 [164] | 54.4 |
| Point Distribution (% of total points) | |||||
| 3-Pointers: | 22.6 [284] | 29.9 [84] | 31.2 [77] | 33.2 [25] | 27.6 |
| 2-Pointers: | 54.9 [107] | 48.4 [288] | 48.6 [268] | 43.7 [341] | 52.1 |
| Free Throws: | 22.5 [70] | 21.8 [105] | 20.1 [172] | 23.0 [66] | 20.3 |
| Strength of Schedule | |||||
| Components: | 100.8 [172] | 100.5 [175] | 98.8 [262] | 100.9 [198] | 100.4 |
| Overall: | 0.5078 [173] | 0.4403 [245] | 0.5 | ||
| Non-conference: | 0.4384 [235] | 0.3581 [299] | 0.5 | ||
| Personnel | |||||
| Bench Minutes: | 33.0% [130] | 25.7% [293] | 31.40% | ||
| Experience: | 1.26 yrs [287] | 2.21 yrs [27] | 1.65 | ||
| Effective Height: | +1.6 [74] | -1.3 [247] | 0 | ||
| Average Height: | 78.6" [3] | 76.1" [223] | 76.5" | ||
Analysis
Personnel-wise, Auburn University starts three back-court players (Reed, Barrett and Waller), one wing (Hargrove) and one front-court player, Korvotney Barber. The Tigers have remarkably balanced shooting as you can see from the numbers above, with three of the main players taking about the same number of shots per 40 minutes.
Barber, a Rivals 4-star back when he was being recruited, chose Auburn over the University of Kentucky due to its proximity to home. Barber is a slightly smaller player than Patrick Patterson, but plays a similar type of game. Barber is shooting a high percentage, but not nearly as high as Patrick Patterson. Barber has had five double-doubles this season and just missed a sixth at Alabama
DeWayne Reed is the point guard, a dangerous 3-point shooter and the best passer on the team. Rasheem Barrett is a slasher who has struggled from 3-point range this year, and is an excellent defender. Waller is a scoring guard who also leads the team in steals with 3.7/40 minutes played. Lucas Hargrove is a slashing wing who will also shoot the three, although he has struggled a bit from long range.
Matchup-wise, Kentucky is longer and bigger at every position, but the Tigers are very fast and athletic. They play an up-tempo style similar to Kentucky, although they usually average a possession or two less per game than UK. It will be interesting to see how they attempt to guard Meeks, as Jeff Lebo has pulled out junk defenses like a box-and-one or a triangle-and-two on more than one occasion. My take is that Kentucky wins the individual matchups hands down, except at the point where Reed is superior to Porter both athletically and statistically. Kentucky has the deeper bench, but not by a great deal. Auburn has some good size coming off the pine, and their second best rebounder is a bench player.
Auburn will mix up man-to-man and zone, and you can expect to see them do a lot of pressing and trapping. Auburn knows that Kentucky has had trouble handling the ball, and Auburn leads the SEC in steals. They will try to put as much pressure on Kentucky's ballhandling as possible, and if they are successful, it could be another high turnover game for the Wildcats. If the 'Cats do take good care, expect a lot of baskets in transition by Kentucky.
In the half court, I expect to see a lot of zone from the Tigers tonight, both to protect Korvotney Barber and limit Patterson's touches. Of course, that will only last as long as they are able to contain Jodie Meeks, because if he starts raining threes down on Auburn, Lebo will make an adjustment. That will likely make it easier for Patterson down low. Auburn is not a very good half-court defensive team, though, so I expect the Wildcats to get plenty of good looks at the basket tonight.
Look for Perry Stevenson to get a lot of touches down low tonight. Auburn cannot match his size, and if Stevenson can make some early shots and force the defense to play him honest, it will just make life easier for both Patterson and Jodie Meeks. In many ways, Perry is the key to the game tonight.
Offensively, the Tigers will bomb away from three. They will go to Barber sometimes, but he does a lot of his damage on the offensive glass. Auburn takes the most 3 point shots in the SEC as a percentage of all field goal attempts, and if UK's perimeter defense is not on tonight, they can make life very difficult for Kentucky. UK must do what it did against Tennessee, and not allow any clean 3-point looks. Patterson or Stevenson can handle Barber, but the other is going to have to defend the perimeter. Auburn is a poor free-throw shooting team, which really hurts their offensive efficiency, because they are one of the best in the SEC at getting to the free-throw line.
Conclusion
UK is a significantly more talented team than the Tigers, but with Barber back healthy this year, Auburn is a much tougher out than they were last year, as Alabama found out a few days ago and Florida nearly did. Kentucky can't take Aubie for granted, as they the kind of team that can rain threes on you when they are hot, and when you ignore the post, they have Barber in there to do damage. Auburn forces a lot of turnovers, so UK is going to have to take good care of the basketball.
Bottom line -- get the ball in to Patterson, let Meeks do his thing, take care of the defensive boards and the basketball, and Kentucky should win this one with reasonable ease.
I figure UK by about 10.