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Arkansas at Kentucky -- Statistical breakdown

Here is the statistical comparison between Kentucky and Arkansas

This is a very even game, statistically speaking.  Arkansas is very slightly superior in many categories, especially in conference.  You will notice I added three additional statistical categories to the National rankings section relating to defensive stats.  I don't know why I had previously omitted them, but they are included now.

There are two things that jump out at me as opportunities for Kentucky here.  One is the fact that the Razorbacks foul more than we do.  That is a situation we have actually experienced only once this year, against Tennessee, and we all know what happened.  Putting the Wildcats on the free throw line is a very bad idea.  The second is the fact that the Razorbacks have a very strong correlation between turnovers and efficiency on both sides of the ball.  If they turn it over a lot on offense, they are very likely to lose.  If they fail to turn the opponent over on defense, their defensive efficiency is significantly impacted.

Arkansas also likes to play at a significantly higher pace than Kentucky.  Kentucky has successfully exploited pace-sensitive teams all year, and I expect this will be another opportunity to do so.  These two teams couldn't be much more different in style of play and composition.  Arkansas is a fast-paced, pressing team with a big front line.  Kentucky is a grind-it-out team with a small front line.  A big area of concern for the Cats, as it has been all year, will be rebounding.  We have often held our own against bigger teams, but Arkansas is not only big, but athletic as well.

I'll have a more in-depth look at the game in my adversary analysis.  For more on the Arkansas Razorbacks, please be sure to visit our good friends at Razorback Expats.

Thanks again to Statsheet.com and Basketball State for the statistical data.

Statistic UK Ark Comments
Overall 14-10 18-7
Conference 8-3 7-4
Home 11-4 13-1
Away 3-5 2-4 No advantage here
Top 25 2-3 1-1 We've played tougher
RPI Top 50 3-4 2-3 No advantage here
Ranking NR NR BlogPoll
RPI 73 36
SOS 25 50 We've played tougher

Overall Conf. Only
National rankings UK Ark UK Ark Comments
FG% 45 61 3 4 Small advantage UK
2 pt FG% 54 60 8 7 Small advantage UK
3 pt FG% 115 225 4 3 Not much difference in conference
Possessions 219 71 12 3 They play significantly faster
Offensive Pts/Possession 121 105 7 3 Advantage Arkansas
Defensive Pts/Possession 88 40 6 6 Pretty even in conference
TO/gm 274 274 9 9 We both turn it over a lot.
APG 170 79 8 5 Arkansas passes better.
A/TO 253 171 9 8 No surprise.
Defensive FG% 17 36 3 2 Arkansas better in conference
Defensive 2-pt FG% 15 87 3 2 Ditto
Defensive 3-pt FG% 54 21 6 4 Ditto
Rebounds 141 41 8 4 UK has been weaker here all year
Location based rank* 90 34 N/A N/a
*Factors in how well the team plays away from home


Statistic All Games Conference Games

UK Ark UK Ark Delta (adjusted
for all games
played)
Comments
Total Games 24 25 11 11 -1
Wins 14 18 8 7 -4
Losses 10 7 3 4 3
Pct 0.58 0.72 0.73 0.64 -0.14
Field Goals Made 586 669 254 291 -56.24
Field Goals Attempted 1243 1440 554 642 -139.4
Field Goal Percentage 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.01 Very close
Free Throws Made 363 376 168 155 2.04
Free Throws Attempted 482 556 225 237 -51.76
Free Throw Percentage 0.75 0.68 0.75 0.65 0.08 Only LSU is as good as the Cats
3pt Field Goals Made 140 145 58 78 0.8
3pt Field Goals Attempted 385 429 159 213 -26.84
3pt Field Goal Percentage 0.36 0.34 0.37 0.37 0.03 Dead even in conf.
Points 1675 1859 734 815 -109.64
Points Per Game 69.8 74.4 66.7 74.1 -4.6 Arkans outscores us
Rebounds 879 1019 407 455 -99.24
Rebounds Per Game 36.6 40.8 37 41.4 -4.2 Always an area of concern
Offensive Rebounds 240 338 111 144 -84.48
Offensive Rebounds Per Game 10 13.5 10.1 13.1 -3.5 Advantage Arkansas
Defensive Rebounds 585 605 267 276 4.2
Defensive Rebounds Per Game 24.4 24.2 24.3 25.1 0.2 About even
Assists 318 372 136 157 -54
Assists Per Game 13.3 14.9 12.4 14.3 -1.6 Arkansas is the better passing team.
Steals 165 180 66 62 -15
Steals Per Game 6.9 7.2 6 5.6 -0.3 Small difference.
Turnovers 389 403 163 161 -14
Turnovers Per Game 16.2 16.1 14.8 14.6 0.1 Call it even
Blocks 112 134 52 51 -22
Blocks Per Game 4.7 5.4 4.7 4.6 -0.7 Call it even
Fouls 467 464 198 208 3
Fouls Per Game 19.5 18.6 18 18.9 0.9 Nobody fouls like the Cats, except Akansas!
Disqualifications 15 8 6 6 7 We haven't seen this very often.


It's game day.  Go Cats!