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Kentucky at Vanderbilt -- Adversary analysis

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This is the short-form Adversary Analysis I will do on opponents we have already faced.  It's unnecessary to repeat the work I have done before, so what this will do is essentially offer updated stats, note any significant changes in the team since last time, and proceed to the conclusion.

So check out my previous analysis here, and the rest follows:

Personnel:


Per Game Averages
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S. Foster Sr G-F 24 24 49.8 45.6 73 33.4 18.9 5 1.7 2 1.2 0.3
A. Gordon Sr G 24 24 41.5 40.9 77.6 29.6 10.8 2.6 3.1 2.3 1.3 0
J. Beal So G 24 23 42.7 32.8 76.3 27.4 7.8 2.2 4.8 1.6 0.9 0
A. Ogilvy Fr C 24 24 59.3 0 77.2 26.3 17.4 6.7 1.3 2.5 0.8 1.5
R. Neltner Sr F 24 22 49.4 25 77.6 26 8.2 5.4 1.8 2.2 1.2 0.5
D. McClellan Fr F 24 2 42.4 50 50 15.3 3.3 3.5 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.4
K. Bell Fr G 24 0 38.2 42.9 50 13.3 3.3 1.2 3 1.7 0.1 0
A. Metcalfe Sr C 24 0 47.8 45.5 75 12.7 6.3 2.8 0.3 1.3 0.3 0.3
A. Walker Fr F 24 0 37.3 14.3 65.2 10.1 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.3

Starters highlighted, as always.

Offense:

No change.

Defense:

No change.

Intangibles and injuries:

Vandy is at home, and Kentucky has had the very Devil of a time winning there lately, winning only twice in its last 5 tries at Memorial Gym.  The unusual setup of the gymnasium gives Vanderbilt a larger than normal home court advantage, in my opinion.  Vandy is coming home from a road swing, and they have not lost at home this year.  The Memorial magic is still in full bloom for the 'Dores.

Jodie Meeks may see some time, but my sense is that he is out of shape and it won't be much, if so.  Harris is healthy and Crawford seems to be better, so we will be coming into this game as near full strength as we have been all year.  Vanderbilt has no significant injuries to anyone.  Advantage -- Vanderbilt


Kentucky wins if:

No change.

Vanderbilt wins if:

  1. They shoot a high percentage from 3.
  2. Patterson gets in foul trouble.
  3. Kentucky turns the ball over more than Vandy does.
  4. Crawford or Bradley struggle.
  5. We fail to defend like we did in Rupp.

Conclusion:

This is a much tougher game than the victory in Rupp Arena, but in my opinion, this is a much tougher Kentucky team than the 'Dores first ran into.  With the addition of a productive Perry Stevenson and the increasing confidence and health of Kentucky's players, this is going to be a war.  Once again, Vanderbilt will try to get the pace as high as possible.  Once again, the Wildcats will try to keep it in the low to mid 60's.

Make no mistake, this is a very even matchup, and Vandy is at home.  It will take a special effort on the part of the Wildcats to get the win, and the margin for error is very small.  The whistle always seem to go against us more than usual in Memorial, and that just means that we have an even higher hill to climb.  Vandy has not been playing particularly well lately, and as much as Shan Foster was lighting it up when he rolled into Lexington, he is struggling now.  LSU proved that if you can really pressure Foster, he has difficulty getting his own shot.  We have to have that tonight.

For the Wildcats, they need to continue to do what they have been doing -- excellent defense and efficient offense.  If Kentucky could manage the turnovers better, there is no telling what might happen, but I have been let down on that so many times I don't even think about them any more.  As long as the margin isn't too high, I guess we will just have to learn to live with them.  But one thing about the Commodores that worries me and aught to worry the Cats -- giving them extra shots at the basket is an invitation to disaster.