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Central Michigan @ Kentucky: No time for Chippewas

Btn_ball_medium Btn_stats_medium Another Monday, another game. This time, it is the final "tune up" game scheduled against a supposedly weaker opponent for UK's out-of-conference slate.  Interestingly enough, UK has a history with CMU, even if it is only one game -- we met the Chippewas in the 1975 NCAA tournament second round, a game which we won 90-73 in Dayton, Ohio.

So who are the CMU Chippewas?  Here are some quick facts:

  • Head coach:  Ernie Zeigler, former assistant to Ben Howland at Pittsburgh and UCLA.  Coached two years in Saudi Arabia.
  • Record:  3-8
  • Nickname:  Chippewas
  • Location:  Mount Pleasant, MI
  • Colors:  Maroon and Gold
  • Conference:  MAC
  • Record against the SEC:  0-4
  • Enrollment:  27,354

Let's have a look at the Chippewa's stats.  Starters higlighted in yellow, as always:

Player stats

Central Michigan Chippewas
Player Size Pos Class GP GS MPG PPG FG% RPG APG SPG BPG
Robbie Harman 6'1”/180 G Jr. 11 11 34.5 12.1 35.8 3.1 3.4 2 0
Adrian Hunter 5'11”/195 G Fr. 9 1 20.7 5.7 39.1 3.1 0.7 0.2 0
Jacolby Hardiman 6'5”/200 G-F Jr. 11 11 32 10.7 47.9 5.5 1.4 1.5 0.2
Marcus Van 6'7”/220 F-C Sr. 6 4 27.8 12.5 60.4 8.3 0.2 0.7 2.2
Jordan Bitzer 6'3”/195 G Jr. 3 2 24.7 9.3 32.1 4.7 1.3 1.7 0
William Eddie III 6'2”/170 G Fr. 10 0 10.4 1.3 40 0.4 0.3 0.2 0
Jeremy Allen 6'3”/185 G So. 11 10 30.3 12.6 40.3 3.1 1.3 1.5 0.2
Lawrence Bridges 6'6”/220 F Fr. 10 0 9.5 1.7 50 1.1 0.1 0.5 0
Zach Saylor 6'8”/235 F Fr. 7 0 4.7 0.9 28.6 0.6 0 0.1 0.1
Brandon Ford 6'11”/255 F-C Jr. 7 0 8.6 0.3 16.7 1.3 0.4 0 0
Chris Kellermann 6'8”/245 F Sr. 7 7 26.9 14.4 41.7 5.6 1.3 1 0.3
Antonio Weary 6'3”/215 G So. 11 9 23.1 2.7 29.4 3.4 2 0.8 0.4
Ryan Thomas
G Fr. 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Team statistics

Courtesy of Ken Pomeroy's site:

Stat CMU Kentucky Advantage
Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Offense Rnk Defense Rnk Offense Defense
Adjusted efficiency 94.8 253 106.1 259 108.7 59 86.8 23 UK Big UK Big
Effective FG% 47.4 216 48.3 146 55.8 14 42.4 19 UK Big UK
Turnover % 23.2 267 23.2 77 24.7 305 20.9 187 CMU CMU
Offensive rebound % 33.5 169 37.2 288 35.3 109 29.3 63 None UK
Free throw rate 20 282 62.8 343 32.3 30 34.1 127 UK Big UK
3-point FG% 33.2 185 30.9 70 32.4 216 32.9 133 CMU CMU
2-point FG% 46 229 49.1 209 58.8 5 39.1 10 UK UK
Free throw % 59.3 330 74 319 78.1 11 68.7 181 UK Big UK
Block % 11.7 291 6.1 266 6.2 45 19.1 4 UK Big UK Big
Steal % 11.3 264 11.9 57 10.7 228 9.4 206 UK CMU
3PA/FGA 38.3 65 27.9 33 29.5 250 32.1 136 N/A N/A
A/FGM 45.1 327 50 82 64.6 23 43.5 12 N/A N/A

Analysis

Front court

Kentucky is much bigger and more athletic than CMU in the front court.  The task of guarding the combination of Patterson, Harrellson and Stevenson looks monumental from my point of view.  The Chippewas do have some size coming off the bench, but that depth is not particularly skilled and will not likely help much.

CMU's inside players do shoot a good percentage from the floor, with their front-court starters averaging around 49% from the floor.  Chris Kellerman was their leading scorer, and main inside threat, but he is out with a foot injury.

The Chippewas have also been outrebounded in seven of their last eight games, three times by double-digit margins.

Back court

CMU has a small back court led by junior Robbie Harman, who averages 12 points per game.  Adrian hunter, the point guard, is just a freshman and has been suffering from shooting woes lately, having made only 2 of his last 14 from the arc.  Robbie Harman made 7 of 14 three-point shots against Illinois State, and Illinois State is currently ranked #79 by Pomeroy, is undefeated, and plays significantly better three-point defense than Kentucky.

The smaller and quicker Chippewa guards could give UK some trouble.  They haven't played well lately, but they are capable of scoring big from the perimeter if UK doesn't respect them.  They will pressure UK on defense to try to force turnovers, and the Wildcat's ballhandling will be tested today, unlike on Saturday.

Style

The Chippewas play pressure defense a la Ben Howland, but they are not an up-tempo team by any means.  CMU averages an adjusted tempo of around 68 possessions/40 min., which is in between a UCLA and Michigan State tempo.  UK wants to play relatively faster than that at around 71 possession/40 min.

If Coach Ziegler's style is anything like Howland's, he will likely eschew the zone, which will require constant double-teams on Patterson.  Theoretically, you would think that would point to a big game for either Stevenson or Harrellson inside, or Meeks on kick-outs.

Overall

CMU isn't only undermanned and under-talented, their leading scorer is out with injury.  On paper, this is a very significant mismatch, although not as big as some of the other teams that UK has played recently.  CMU is on par in the Pomeroy rankings with Florida Atlantic, but I don't think CMU is really that good right now.  FAU's modest position was due to having thier best player out for nine games, and CMU is suffering the reverse, losing their best player recently.