Here is the statistical comparison between Florida and Kentucky.
As you can see, this looks like a total mismatch on paper. Florida tops Kentucky in virtually every offensive and most defensive statistics. Just looking at the second and third tables, you would be forgiven at arriving to the conclusion that UK is going to be drubbed in this game by the far superior Gators.
Fortunately, the first table makes all the difference in the world. The Gators are utterly unproven against competition the quality of Kentucky. They have a strength of schedule of only 210, and have lost to teams in the RPI top 50 two out of three times. Kentucky has played more RPI top 50 teams and had more success against them. That alone makes this game much more interesting. The predicted pace of this game is 66, which is right in our wheelhouse. We have played well at that pace, and it should give us the best opportunity for success. Florida has played very few tough defensive squads this year, and those that they have played have beaten them.
But Florida's young team has shot the ball very well this year, particularly in the O'dome. Kentucky is going to have to continue with its tough, defensive-minded strategy in order to have any chance at the Gators in Gainesville.
Thanks again to Statsheet.com and Basketball State for the statistical data.
|Stat||All Games||Conference Games|
|UK||FLA||UK||FLA||Delta (adjusted for games played for all games)||Comments|
|Field Goals Made||380||542||48||92||-71.67|
|Field Goals Attempted||806||1067||117||190||-83.17|
|Field Goal Percentage||0.47||0.51||0.41||0.48||-0.04||This is significant. Not sure how much is due to their low level of competition|
|Free Throws Made||230||232||35||37||36.67|
|Free Throws Attempted||305||329||48||53||30.83|
|Free Throw Percentage||0.75||0.71||0.73||0.7||0.05||We are among the SEC's best. Could be a factor.|
|3pt Field Goals Made||94||147||12||28||-28.5|
|3pt Field Goals Attempted||261||381||35||79||-56.5|
|3pt Field Goal Percentage||0.36||0.39||0.34||0.35||-0.03||No surprise here|
|Points Per Game||72.3||81.3||71.5||83||-9||Nothing new about being outscored on avg.|
|Rebounds Per Game||37.2||40.8||43||39.3||-3.6||Florida's comp is responsible for this stat|
|Offensive Rebounds Per Game||10.5||12.3||14||12.3||-1.8||Ditto|
|Defensive Rebounds Per Game||24.5||24.9||25||23.7||-0.4|
|Assists Per Game||13.7||17.7||11.5||16.3||-4|
|Steals Per Game||7.9||6.5||9.5||6.7||1.4|
|Turnovers Per Game||17.3||12.7||16.5||13.7||4.6||Nothing new about this. Turnovers always trouble|
|Blocks Per Game||4.5||3.4||4||2.7||1.1||Florida's comp is responsible for this stat|
|Fouls Per Game||20.7||15||20.5||16.7||5.7||Hmm. How tough are the Gators?|
I'll have more pregame analysis in a separate post, as usual.