Kentucky at Florida -- Statistical comparison

Here is the statistical comparison between Florida and Kentucky.

As you can see, this looks like a total mismatch on paper.  Florida tops Kentucky in virtually every offensive and most defensive statistics.  Just looking at the second and third tables, you would be forgiven at arriving to the conclusion that UK is going to be drubbed in this game by the far superior Gators.

Fortunately, the first table makes all the difference in the world.  The Gators are utterly unproven against competition the quality of Kentucky.  They have a strength of schedule of only 210, and have lost to teams in the RPI top 50 two out of three times.  Kentucky has played more RPI top 50 teams and had more success against them.  That alone makes this game much more interesting.   The predicted pace of this game is 66, which is right in our wheelhouse.  We have played well at that pace, and it should give us the best opportunity for success.  Florida has played very few tough defensive squads this year, and those that they have played have beaten them.

But Florida's young team has shot the ball very well this year, particularly in the O'dome.  Kentucky is going to have to continue with its tough, defensive-minded strategy in order to have any chance at the Gators in Gainesville.

Thanks again to Statsheet.com and Basketball State for the statistical data.

Stat	All Games		Conference Games
	UK	FLA	UK	FLA	Delta (adjusted for games played for all games)	Comments
Total Games	15	18	2	3	-3
Wins	7	15	1	2	-8
Losses	8	3	1	1	5
Pct	0.47	0.83	0.5	0.67	-0.37
Field Goals Made	380	542	48	92	-71.67
Field Goals Attempted	806	1067	117	190	-83.17
Field Goal Percentage	0.47	0.51	0.41	0.48	-0.04	This is significant. Not sure how much is due to their low level of competition
Free Throws Made	230	232	35	37	36.67
Free Throws Attempted	305	329	48	53	30.83
Free Throw Percentage	0.75	0.71	0.73	0.7	0.05	We are among the SEC's best. Could be a factor.
3pt Field Goals Made	94	147	12	28	-28.5
3pt Field Goals Attempted	261	381	35	79	-56.5
3pt Field Goal Percentage	0.36	0.39	0.34	0.35	-0.03	No surprise here
Points	1084	1463	143	249	-135.17
Points Per Game	72.3	81.3	71.5	83	-9	Nothing new about being outscored on avg.
Rebounds	558	734	86	118	-53.67
Rebounds Per Game	37.2	40.8	43	39.3	-3.6	Florida's comp is responsible for this stat
Offensive Rebounds	157	221	28	37	-27.17
Offensive Rebounds Per Game	10.5	12.3	14	12.3	-1.8	Ditto
Defensive Rebounds	368	449	50	71	-6.17
Defensive Rebounds Per Game	24.5	24.9	25	23.7	-0.4
Assists	205	318	23	49	-60
Assists Per Game	13.7	17.7	11.5	16.3	-4
Steals	118	117	19	20	1
Steals Per Game	7.9	6.5	9.5	6.7	1.4
Turnovers	259	228	33	41	31
Turnovers Per Game	17.3	12.7	16.5	13.7	4.6	Nothing new about this. Turnovers always trouble
Blocks	68	62	8	8	6
Blocks Per Game	4.5	3.4	4	2.7	1.1	Florida's comp is responsible for this stat
Fouls	310	270	41	50	40
Fouls Per Game	20.7	15	20.5	16.7	5.7	Hmm. How tough are the Gators?
Disqualifications	10	3	1	2	7

I'll have more pregame analysis in a separate post, as usual.