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Kentucky at Florida -- Statistical comparison

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Here is the statistical comparison between Florida and Kentucky.

As you can see, this looks like a total mismatch on paper.  Florida tops Kentucky in virtually every offensive and most defensive statistics.  Just looking at the second and third tables, you would be forgiven at arriving to the conclusion that UK is going to be drubbed in this game by the far superior Gators.

Fortunately, the first table makes all the difference in the world.  The Gators are utterly unproven against competition the quality of Kentucky.  They have a strength of schedule of only 210, and have lost to teams in the RPI top 50 two out of three times.  Kentucky has played more RPI top 50 teams and had more success against them.  That alone makes this game much more interesting.   The predicted pace of this game is 66, which is right in our wheelhouse.  We have played well at that pace, and it should give us the best opportunity for success.  Florida has played very few tough defensive squads this year, and those that they have played have beaten them.

But Florida's young team has shot the ball very well this year, particularly in the O'dome.  Kentucky is going to have to continue with its tough, defensive-minded strategy in order to have any chance at the Gators in Gainesville.

Thanks again to Statsheet.com and Basketball State for the statistical data.


Statistic UK FLA Comments
Overall 7-8 15-3
Conference 1-1 2-1
Home 7-4 11-1
Away 0-3 1-2
Top 25 1-2 0-1
RPI Top 50 2-3 1-2
Ranking NR NR BlogPoll
RPI 70 179
SOS 210 66 Big diff.
National rankings UK FLA Comments
FG% 50 6
2 pt FG% 41 5
3 pt FG% 135 56
Possessions 153 159 Similar tempo
Offensive Pts/Possession 118 3 Mismatch
Defensive Pts/Possession 73 51 Surprising
TO/gm 295 30 Wow!
APG 162 14 No surprise
A/TO 247 8 UK=Ugly
Rebounds 127 99

Stat All Games Conference Games

UK FLA UK FLA Delta (adjusted for games played for all games) Comments
Total Games 15 18 2 3 -3
Wins 7 15 1 2 -8
Losses 8 3 1 1 5
Pct 0.47 0.83 0.5 0.67 -0.37
Field Goals Made 380 542 48 92 -71.67
Field Goals Attempted 806 1067 117 190 -83.17
Field Goal Percentage 0.47 0.51 0.41 0.48 -0.04 This is significant. Not sure how much is due to their low level of competition
Free Throws Made 230 232 35 37 36.67
Free Throws Attempted 305 329 48 53 30.83
Free Throw Percentage 0.75 0.71 0.73 0.7 0.05 We are among the SEC's best. Could be a factor.
3pt Field Goals Made 94 147 12 28 -28.5
3pt Field Goals Attempted 261 381 35 79 -56.5
3pt Field Goal Percentage 0.36 0.39 0.34 0.35 -0.03 No surprise here
Points 1084 1463 143 249 -135.17
Points Per Game 72.3 81.3 71.5 83 -9 Nothing new about being outscored on avg.
Rebounds 558 734 86 118 -53.67
Rebounds Per Game 37.2 40.8 43 39.3 -3.6 Florida's comp is responsible for this stat
Offensive Rebounds 157 221 28 37 -27.17
Offensive Rebounds Per Game 10.5 12.3 14 12.3 -1.8 Ditto
Defensive Rebounds 368 449 50 71 -6.17
Defensive Rebounds Per Game 24.5 24.9 25 23.7 -0.4
Assists 205 318 23 49 -60
Assists Per Game 13.7 17.7 11.5 16.3 -4
Steals 118 117 19 20 1
Steals Per Game 7.9 6.5 9.5 6.7 1.4
Turnovers 259 228 33 41 31
Turnovers Per Game 17.3 12.7 16.5 13.7 4.6 Nothing new about this. Turnovers always trouble
Blocks 68 62 8 8 6
Blocks Per Game 4.5 3.4 4 2.7 1.1 Florida's comp is responsible for this stat
Fouls 310 270 41 50 40
Fouls Per Game 20.7 15 20.5 16.7 5.7 Hmm. How tough are the Gators?
Disqualifications 10 3 1 2 7


I'll have more pregame analysis in a separate post, as usual.