It seems surreal to be faced with a near must-win at Vanderbilt, and have very real doubts if the Kentucky Wildcats can accomplish it. The fact that we are doing so having lost the last three times to the 'Dores has an eerie, nightmare quality to it that is very upsetting to my liver.
But here we are, nonetheless. Like it or not, Vanderbilt is a peer at the moment, and we are no more likely to win than lose this game. Vanderbilt is ranked, we are not. Vanderbilt is playing at home, a place that is notoriously tough for a visitor to win in. Vandy has lost at home this year to some teams worse than Kentucky, but not during SEC play.
Vanderbilt's last game was a sound thumping on the road by Mississippi State, so they will be hungry for a home win today. Kentucky's last game was a narrow victory over a resurgent "Big Baby-less" LSU team who proved its tough play against UK was no fluke by beating #3 Florida in Baton Rouge yesterday. I guess the Big Blue Nation can take some cold comfort in doing at least one thing this year Florida wasn't able to do.
Vanderbilt by the numbers
The usual starters for the Commodores are junior forward Shan Foster (6'6"/200#/15p/5r/2a), senior forward Derrick Byars (6'7"/220#/16p/5r/3a), junior forward Ross Neltner (6'9"/240#/10p/6r/2a), senior guard Dan Cage (6'5"/215#/11p/3r/2a), and junior guard Alex Gordon (5'11"/175#/8p/2r/4a).
Off the bench, we have junior forward Alan Metcalfe (6'9"/260#/2p/2r), freshman forward JeJuan Brown (6'7"/225#/3p/3r), senior center Ted Skuchas (6'11"/250#/4p/2r), and freshman guard Jermaine Beal (6'3"/200#/4p/2r/2a).
Statistically in the SEC, the 'Cats and the 'Dores stack up like this:
SCORING OFFENSE
## Team G W-L Pts Avg/G
--------------------------------------------
3.Vanderbilt.......... 27 18-9 2070 76.7
8.Kentucky............ 27 19-8 1973 73.1
SCORING DEFENSE
## Team G Pts Avg/G
--------------------------------------
4.Kentucky............ 27 1783 66.0
10.Vanderbilt.......... 27 1894 70.1
SCORING MARGIN
## Team G OFF DEF Margin
----------------------------------------------
4.Kentucky............ 27 73.1 66.0 +7.0
6.Vanderbilt.......... 27 76.7 70.1 +6.5
FREE THROW PERCENTAGES
## Team G FTM FTA Pct
---------------------------------------------
1.Vanderbilt.......... 27 368 513 .717
6.Kentucky............ 27 379 548 .692
FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGES
## Team G FG FGA Pct
---------------------------------------------
2.Kentucky............ 27 708 1484 .477
6.Vanderbilt.......... 27 729 1569 .465
FIELD GOAL PCT DEFENSE
## Team G FG FGA Pct
---------------------------------------------
1.Kentucky............ 27 656 1653 .397
8.Vanderbilt.......... 27 685 1584 .432
3-POINT FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGES
## Team G FG FGA Pct
---------------------------------------------
3.Vanderbilt.......... 27 244 646 .378
9.Kentucky............ 27 178 507 .351
3-POINT FIELD GOAL PCT DEFENSE
## Team G FG FGA Pct
---------------------------------------------
4.Kentucky............ 27 198 620 .319
5.Vanderbilt.......... 27 191 583 .328
REBOUNDING OFFENSE
## Team G Reb Avg/G
--------------------------------------
5.Kentucky............ 27 1004 37.2
11.Vanderbilt.......... 27 917 34.0
REBOUNDING DEFENSE
## Team G Reb Avg/G
--------------------------------------
5.Kentucky............ 27 912 33.8
11.Vanderbilt.......... 27 976 36.1
REBOUNDING MARGIN
## Team G TEAM Avg OPP Avg Margin
--------------------------------------------------------
5.Kentucky............ 27 1004 37.2 912 33.8 +3.4
11.Vanderbilt.......... 27 917 34.0 976 36.1 -2.2
BLOCKED SHOTS
## Team G Blocks Avg/G
-----------------------------------------
4.Kentucky............ 27 137 5.07
12.Vanderbilt.......... 27 78 2.89
ASSISTS
## Team G Assists Avg/G
------------------------------------------
1.Vanderbilt.......... 27 461 17.07
4.Kentucky............ 27 433 16.04
STEALS
## Team G Steals Avg/G
-----------------------------------------
4.Vanderbilt.......... 27 203 7.52
10.Kentucky............ 27 157 5.81
TURNOVER MARGIN
## Team G TEAM Avg OPP Avg Margin
--------------------------------------------------------
3.Vanderbilt.......... 27 347 12.9 425 15.7 +2.89
12.Kentucky............ 27 396 14.7 349 12.9 -1.74
ASSIST/TURNOVER RATIO
## Team G Asst Avg Turn Avg Ratio
--------------------------------------------------------
1.Vanderbilt.......... 27 461 17.1 347 12.9 1.33
4.Kentucky............ 27 433 16.0 396 14.7 1.09
OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS
## Team G No. Avg/G
---------------------------------------
11.Kentucky............ 27 284 10.52
12.Vanderbilt.......... 27 261 9.67
DEFENSIVE REBOUNDS
## Team G No. Avg/G
---------------------------------------
2.Kentucky............ 27 720 26.67
7.Vanderbilt.......... 27 656 24.30
3-POINT FIELD GOALS MADE
## Team G 3FG Avg/G
---------------------------------------
1.Vanderbilt.......... 27 244 9.04
9.Kentucky............ 27 178 6.59
Offensively, Kentucky shoots better than Vanderbilt, but Vanderbilt is a much better 3-point shooting team, and they have multiple weapons in that area. Kentucky is a much better rebounding team, averaging 3 more rebounds than their opponents, while Vandy averages 2 less. Neither team is a threat on the offensive glass, with UK being only slightly better.
But Vanderbilt takes care of the ball. They average +3 in TO margin, while UK averages a -2. Vanderbilt leads the league in assist/turnover ratio. UK is 4th.
Defensively, UK is the better team, on paper anyway, leading significantly in every defensive category. However, Vandy is almost as good at defending the three as UK.
Efficiency wise, Kentucky is slightly more efficient on offense, but the difference is insignificant. Defensively, UK has the 23rd most efficient defense, while Vandy has the 64th most efficient.
There is one very interesting correlation for Vandy - a negative correlation between offensive efficiency and opponent's FG%. Apparently, when the other team shoots well, it has a negative impact on Vandy's offensive efficiency. That is a bit counterintuitive, but there you go.
What it all means
Vanderbilt has historically given Tubby Smith teams trouble because of their reliance on the 3-point shot. It is axiomatic that Kentucky's ball-line defense is vulnerable to inside-out threes, and there is no real reason to expect anything different today.
For those of us who have been waiting all year for this UK team to put it all together and go an a run, now would be a good time. It will require patience and extremely tough defense, as Vandy is going to shoot threes and make them. Foster and Byars are about as tough a front-line duo as there is in the SEC because of their versatility and quickness. They can shoot a 3 on anyone because of their excellent size, and can take it inside for the same reason.
Vandy, on the other hand, has no answer at all for Randolph Morris, so they will double-team him. If Kentucky hit shots from the perimeter or make strong cuts to the basket when the double team comes, UK could score a lot of easy baskets on the 'Dores and get Neltner and Skuchas in foul trouble. If Morris gets in foul trouble, it will be tough for UK to win.
Will Bradley be patient, yet assertive? Will he share the ball? Will Crawford shoot well, and drive the ball into the lane? Can Jasper provide some kind of offensive threat? Will Meeks continue to give us that third or fourth scoring option off the bench? Can we get anything out of the 4 spot? These are the questions that must come up mostly "yes" if UK is to win at Vanderbilt.