He take a lightning from the sky
He bring a strong man to his begging knee
He make the young girl's mama cry.
Note: you will find an unusual dearth of links in this post. That's because I accidentally deleted the linked-up version, and I don't have time to relink it. Sorry.
Many of you will recognize John Fogerty's lyrics from The Old Man Down The Road, but they could have been written about Glen "Big Baby" Davis of LSU. Big Baby will be leading John Brady's LSU Tigers into Rupp Arena for the ESPN late game tonight. Will Davis and the Bayou Bengals bring Tubby Smith & Co. to their "begging knee", or can UK start an new win streak?
Unfortunately, late word out of Baton Rouge is that Big Baby is not coming to Lexington due to an injured right quadriceps. Starting in his place will be sophomore Magnum Rolle.
A good number of program doubters and critics are jumping on Davis' absence to throw cold water on a possible UK victory, claiming that it would prove nothing. On the other hand, Kentucky badly needs a victory to help it regain the confidence lost in three recent, tough losses. I say the Wildcats can help themselves if they play well, even against a wounded opponent. Play poorly, and even a victory could be diminished to near-irrelevance as far as the Big Blue faithful are concerned.
LSU by the numbers
LSU will likely start forwards sophomores Tasman Mitchell (6'7"224#) and Magnum Rolle (6'10"205#) at forward, along with senior Darnell Lazarre (6'8"228#). In the back court will be sophomores Garret Temple III (6'5"190#) and Texas Tech transfer Terry Martin (6'6"196#). Tack Minor, the expected starting point guard for this year, was dismissed from the team at midseason.
Off the bench, the Tigers bring sophomore center Chris Johnson, senior swingman Dameon Mason, a transfer from Marquette, and sophomore guard Ben Voogd.
Taking a quick look at the SEC statistics, here is where the teams stand:
SCORING OFFENSE
## Team G W-L Pts Avg/G
--------------------------------------------
8.Kentucky............ 26 18-8 1903 73.2
11.LSU................. 26 14-12 1783 68.6
SCORING DEFENSE
## Team G Pts Avg/G
--------------------------------------
2.LSU................. 26 1602 61.6
4.Kentucky............ 26 1720 66.2
SCORING MARGIN
## Team G OFF DEF Margin
----------------------------------------------
6.Kentucky............ 26 73.2 66.2 +7.0
7.LSU................. 26 68.6 61.6 +7.0
FREE THROW PERCENTAGES
## Team G FTM FTA Pct
---------------------------------------------
3.LSU................. 26 319 452 .706
6.Kentucky............ 26 357 521 .685
FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGES
## Team G FG FGA Pct
---------------------------------------------
2.Kentucky............ 26 686 1436 .478
9.LSU................. 26 658 1451 .453
FIELD GOAL PCT DEFENSE
## Team G FG FGA Pct
---------------------------------------------
2.Kentucky............ 26 631 1590 .397
3.LSU................. 26 592 1480 .400
3-POINT FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGES
## Team G FG FGA Pct
---------------------------------------------
9.Kentucky............ 26 174 496 .351
10.LSU................. 26 148 422 .351
3-POINT FIELD GOAL PCT DEFENSE
## Team G FG FGA Pct
---------------------------------------------
4.Kentucky............ 26 192 602 .319
6.LSU................. 26 160 478 .335
REBOUNDING OFFENSE
## Team G Reb Avg/G
--------------------------------------
4.LSU................. 26 981 37.7
6.Kentucky............ 26 969 37.3
REBOUNDING DEFENSE
## Team G Reb Avg/G
--------------------------------------
4.LSU................. 26 840 32.3
5.Kentucky............ 26 879 33.8
REBOUNDING MARGIN
## Team G TEAM Avg OPP Avg Margin
--------------------------------------------------------
3.LSU................. 26 981 37.7 840 32.3 +5.4
5.Kentucky............ 26 969 37.3 879 33.8 +3.5
BLOCKED SHOTS
## Team G Blocks Avg/G
-----------------------------------------
4.Kentucky............ 26 134 5.15
7.LSU................. 26 125 4.81
ASSISTS
## Team G Assists Avg/G
------------------------------------------
4.Kentucky............ 26 420 16.15
9.LSU................. 26 375 14.42
STEALS
## Team G Steals Avg/G
-----------------------------------------
8.LSU................. 26 176 6.77
10.Kentucky............ 26 153 5.88
TURNOVER MARGIN
## Team G TEAM Avg OPP Avg Margin
--------------------------------------------------------
11.LSU................. 26 363 14.0 332 12.8 -1.19
12.Kentucky............ 26 385 14.8 340 13.1 -1.73
ASSIST/TURNOVER RATIO
## Team G Asst Avg Turn Avg Ratio
--------------------------------------------------------
4.Kentucky............ 26 420 16.2 385 14.8 1.09
6.LSU................. 26 375 14.4 363 14.0 1.03
OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS
## Team G No. Avg/G
---------------------------------------
5.LSU................. 26 318 12.23
10.Kentucky............ 26 278 10.69
DEFENSIVE REBOUNDS
## Team G No. Avg/G
---------------------------------------
2.Kentucky............ 26 691 26.58
5.LSU................. 26 663 25.50
3-POINT FIELD GOALS MADE
## Team G 3FG Avg/G
---------------------------------------
9.Kentucky............ 26 174 6.69
12.LSU................. 26 148 5.69
Offensively, neither team is that good. Both teams are in the lower half of the conference in scoring offense, scoring margin, 3-point FG%, turnover margin, and 3-point FG made. Efficiency-wise, Kentucky is significantly more efficient on offense than LSU, primarily because they shoot the ball better.
Defensively, both teams are quite good, although UK leads the way in most defensive statistics. LSU is the better offensive rebounding team, neither team gets many steals and both have poor turnover margins. UK and LSU are ranked number 23 and 26 in the nation in defensive efficiency, which is insignificantly different.
Correlation-wise, LSU 's offensive efficiency is impacted by opponents offensive rebound percentage, while UK seems to be less efficient defensively the more the opposition turns the ball over. Interesting, but probably meaningless. More meaningful is the fact that LSU doesn't appear to have a correlation between OR% and OE, like most teams do. Their OE seems to be abnormally dependent upon effective FG%, which could be a plus if UK brings its Florida defense.
Individually, Davis is in the top 5 of the following categories: Scoring (3rd), rebounding (1st overall, OR and DR), minutes played (3rd). UK has Randolph Morris in the top 5 in FG% (2nd), blocked shots (5th), and Ramel Bradley in FT% (5th).
What it all means
Who the heck knows? These two teams are fairly evenly matched statistically, yet LSU's season has sucked worse, in the SEC especially. Not having a true point guard has really hurt their offense, but they do start two very large and talented guards, and this is the first team in a while which is actually bigger in the back court than we are.
It looks to me like the team who plays the best defense wins. Both teams have really stunk at offense lately, and if that trend continues, look for another grid-it-out nail-biter. Just what UK needs - another close game where it struggles to score.
Big Baby's absence will probably hurt the Bayou Bengals most in rebounding and inside scoring, but as many people have been fond of noting, we seem to play down to our competition.