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Lies, damn lies, and statistics...

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Some interesting statistical facts about UK this year compared to recent years.  Below, you will find some aggregated data from Ken Pomeroy's excellent site, comparing adjusted UK numbers in tempo, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and calculated winning percentage (a measure of how likely the team is to win a game):

Year Team (Conf T/O/D/P)   TEMPO/PACE    Off. Eff.    Def. Eff.   Win %
2007  Kentucky  (SEC)      68.9 (126)  112.3 ( 43)   86.4 ( 20)  .954 ( 24)
2006  Kentucky[8] (SEC)    65.7 (221)  115.8 ( 14)   94.0 ( 50)  .916 ( 20)
2005  Kentucky[2] (SEC)    67.2 (163)  113.7 ( 25)   87.7 (  5)  .952 ( 10)
2004  Kentucky[1] (SEC)    68.3 (134)  115.6 ( 19)   87.7 ( 12)  .960 (  9)

A few noteworthy caveats:

  1. Other seasons are complete seasons, and this season isn't, so keep that in mind.
  2. Adjusted numbers take into account things like strength of competition, home court advantage, ect.
  3. Ken may have changed his algorithms somewhat over the years, and I'm not sure if past numbers reflect this.
Notice the difference in our tempo from last year to this.  It is a dramatic change.  In fact, we are playing at a higher tempo than at any time in Ken's database.  Smith said this would happen, and the team has lived up to that observation.

It is interesting to note that we had a higher offensive efficiency every previous year.  I would surmise this is due to fewer turnovers.  As tempo increases, turnover rate also tends to increase.  Still, that doesn't mean turnovers aren't a problem - look at 2004.  A similar pace, but also significantly higher offensive efficiency. 

Also, notice our defensive efficiency is far better this year than last.  This should surprise exactly nobody, since we had so many close games last year.  Still, our defense is nowhere near as efficient as 2005, but isn't far off 2004.

Finally, our winning % is higher now than for any previous year except 2004.  This stat can be a bit misleading, though, because we are comparing midseason numbers to complete seasons.  Still, I think the trend is directionally accurate.