Time to take a stand and pick some teams -- The East

by Truzenzuzex on Mar 19, 2008 9:29 AM EDT in Basketball Comment 15 comments

While picking my brackets, I thought I would add a little analysis so you can compare what I'm thinking to yours. Full discloser requires me to tell you that I have done very poorly except when I have picked Kentucky to win it all, which represents the only time I have ever won a bracket challenge. So if you are looking for success, please do not listen to me. For a guy who watches and analyzes a lot of basketball, I am crappy at picking tournament winners.

Anyone who hasn't headed over to the Sea of Blue tournament pick'em site, be sure to do so today or very early tomorrow before tipoff of the first game. You can find the details in this post by TrickyD26 just down from here.

With that said, here we go:

East:

First round:

Easy ones:

UNC over Mt. St. Marys -- too much size and talent.
Tennessee over American -- Ditto.
Louisville over Boise State -- No way Pitino loses this game. Too deep and too big for Boise State.
Notre Dame -- Notre Dame is too hot for the Patriots right now, but a contrast in styles makes me wonder a bit about this one.

Tough ones:

Oklahoma over St. Joseph's -- That one looks easy on paper, but I have an idea it isn't.
Arkansas over Indiana -- This one looks too close to call to me, so I went with the SEC team. But Arkansas is so hot and cold, and Indiana has no coach. I have no real clue.
Butler over South Alabama -- I like the defense Butler plays, plus their ball security. Turnovers really can hurt at Tournament time.

Upsets:

4-13 Winthrop -- I just think Winthrop is playing better right now.

Second Round:

UNC over Arkansas -- The Razorbacks just don't have enough skill to beat the Tarheels, but the Razorbacks should love the pace.
Notre Dame over Winthrop -- Again, I like the way Notre Dame is playing right now, and I don't think Winthrop has enough.
Louisville over Oklahoma -- Cardinals should handle the Sooners.
Tennessee over Butler -- UT is just too talented for the Bulldogs.

Regional Semifinals:

North Carolina over Notre Dame -- This is going to be a tough game. Both teams like to run, and Harangody is a match for Hansborough.
Tennessee over Louisville -- Another tough game. Tennessee is just better at the running game than the Cards. In reality, this one is too close to call, but I have to pick somebody.

Regional Finals:

Tennessee over North Carolina -- UNC is ripe for an upset, and Tennessee is capable.

There is my East bracket. I'll have my other ones as the day goes along. Treat this as an open thread to discuss the tournament.

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Comments

Picks

I think S. ALA takes Butler. It's basically a home game for Alabama.

Oklahoma and St. Joe's is tough call. Ricky p thinks this one is 50/50.

UofL beats UT in the Sweet Sixteen. UT just doesnt have it. I dont have any confidence in either them or Memphis to make too deep of a run.

DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!

by davw83 on Mar 19, 2008 9:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Trying to be objective, but its so hard...

I actually have Louisville coming out of this region. It hurts my heart to say so, but I think they have the weapons to defeat both Tenn. and UNC. Tenn has been weak lately, and UNC doesn't play final four defense.

I also took Oklahoma over Arkansas. I don't think either the Razorbacks or Vandy will do much in this tournament. Both teams were significantly worse on the road than at home and those teams usually don't fare well in the tournament.

http://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/t1/register/joingroup ID: 10939 password: wildcats08

by TrickyD26 on Mar 19, 2008 9:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Correction

I took Indiana over Arkansas. I've had waay too many teams going through my head that past few days and my processor is a little sluggish this morning!

http://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/t1/register/joingroup ID: 10939 password: wildcats08

by TrickyD26 on Mar 19, 2008 10:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

UNC is vulnerable

I too have Louisville coming out of this region. People forget they were considered a Final Four contender in the pre-season and they lost that consideration not because they weren't as good as expected, but because of injuries and they are healthy now.

It may be that I've simply watched them play too much, but I don't think UNC is quite as great as thought. They are certainly a good team, but Hansborough can be handled by a good big man and he's not going to be bailed out by the refs calling fouls in the tournament. UNC does not play good half court offense, and they don't play good defense period.

I actually have Butler beating Tennessee, but I'm not entirely objective because my parents went there and I've always liked them (Butler, not my parents. Actually, I've always liked my parents too). One of my favorite non-UK tournament memories is Butler beating the crap out of an overrated Wake Forest team back in 2001.

Looking for a rock to wind a piece of string around.

by JLeverenz on Mar 19, 2008 11:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Butler

I, too, have Butler beating Tennessee. Tennessee - tough as they are - seems to struggle against "smaller" teams in the tournament. They had a terrible time with Winthrop last year.

by kentuckygirl0724 on Mar 20, 2008 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Close

My final 4 in that bracket was the same as yours, Tru, but I went completley opposite at that point.

I agree that UNC is ripe for an upset, but I think Notre Dame will be the one to give it to them. Harangody can shut Hansbrough down, and ND is playing well right now.

I took Louisville over Tennessee, but of course that all depends whether bad-Edgar Sosa/cold shooting Louisville shows up, or good-Edgar Sosa/good shooting/get the ball inside Louisville shows up. The latter version of the 'Cards is one of the best in the country, I think, and I'm so far from a Louisville fan it's ridiculous. My wife is a 'Ville fan (and grad), and this year has been insufferable at times.

After that, Louisville has shown it can handle Notre Dame easily, even on a not-so-great second half night, and I see that happening again.

by blbskue on Mar 19, 2008 11:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

UL

I have UL coming out of this region in at least one of my brackets and reaching the elite eight in all but one of my brackets. I think they could make a deep run this season.

I also have Butler over UT in at least one of my brackets. Its a tough call but I dont have much faith in UT and I think Butler has beaten them before.

DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!

by davw83 on Mar 19, 2008 11:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Louisville

I actually have Louisville falling to St. Joe's. Wishful thinking? Maybe. I just cant force much UL love in my heart. ;)

by kentuckygirl0724 on Mar 20, 2008 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sweet

I just figured out I picked the same final four as KAte Hairop whatever and Bob Knight. LEts hope those picks are good ones.

UNC, Kansas, Pitt, and UCLA.

DEEETROIT BASKETBALLL!!!

by davw83 on Mar 19, 2008 12:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Arkansas loses

to Indy. I feel for Pelphrey but his team has already shown that they can be pushed around. Get in their face and they wilt like lettuce. I see White & Co taking their lunch. Don't think UNC will lose until Final Four. Too much ACC mojo-BS that seeps through the contests, plus add in home field till Final Four.....the road has all but been colored yellow and bricked for them. I don't want to say it because I am tired of hearing about the SEC being "down" but I have a feeling that Tennessee will pull a Rockyflop against Butler and if Louisville lasts long enough for the two to meet I say UL pulls it out.

Either way, UNC gets "the call" and ends up in Final Four. Effing ACC BS. :>

UK in Elite Eight!!!!!!!! :>>>>>>>>>>~

by bluecrip on Mar 19, 2008 1:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Anyone...

else have a hard time separating picking with their heart and picking with their head? Like I'm sure everyone here, I watch A LOT of college basketball. I think I've got a pretty good handle on the haves and the have nots, but year in and year out I do lousy picking winners because I absolutely hate choosing teams I detest. Unfortunately it's a pretty extensive list of some of college basketballs better teams so coming up with a winning bracket is a real b**ch.

Schools worthy of being detested IMO: uf, uofl, unc, duke, uconn, ku, ariz, tenn, ucla, mich st., and iu.

by wldcatsfreak on Mar 19, 2008 6:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I occasionally ...

have trouble being objective with teams like Duke, UNC, and Louisville, but I don't have a lot of loathing for the others you mention.

by Truzenzuzex on Mar 19, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's probably..

a little over the top and mostly centers around percieved slights each team has given UK, examples being arizona beating UK in 97 or calhouns' comments about Kentucky from time to time. A few like are obvious rivals therefore deserving of being hated by all but most are probably of my own design. :)

by wldcatsfreak on Mar 19, 2008 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really must ...

add UConn to that list, though.

:-)

by Truzenzuzex on Mar 19, 2008 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

East Region

This region is Carolinas to lose, I feel.

It's a damn strong region though, with UNC, Tennessee, UL, and a strong Butler team. Notre Dame has looked strong this year at times. Harangody is a load and MCIrishman can flat shoot the lights out. When they're both on their games they are tough to beat.

I realize Carolina has a much stronger roster than Kansas in '88, but I think Hansbrough has the talent, and the desire to pull a Danny Manning and carry his team to the title.

by Ken Howlett on Mar 20, 2008 2:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs