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Log 5 Table of the NCAA Tournament -- Who Has The Best Chance to Win?

We did it for the SEC tournament, now we will do it for the Big Dance.

Kyvampyre has again created a Log5 calculation of the entire NCAA tournament.  A team's percentage chances to win in each round have been calculated using the same technique as described in our earlier post for the SEC championship.

Obviously, this is nothing to get excited about, it just shows something of a statistical look at the NCAA tournament based on the Pythagorean Winning Percentage calculation.  You can find our more about that at Ken Pomeroy's site, or by looking at various other places around the Internet.

Here is the data.  I think you will find this interesting, and I will have some comments at the end. The data follows after the break:

Star-divide

Midwest
East

Team Pyth. Win % Second Round Sweet Sixteen Regional Final Final Four

Team Pyth. Win % Second Round Sweet Sixteen Regional Final Final Four

Raw Adj.

Raw Adj.
1 Kansas 0.99 98.54% 93.54% 81.80% 61.73% 61.76%
1 North Carolina 0.97 97.93% 70.29% 45.82% 28.95% 28.73%
16 Portland St. 0.63 1.46% 0.32% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Coppin State 0.1 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 UNLV 0.87 56.63% 3.80% 1.27% 0.22% 0.22%
16 Mt. St. Mary's 0.47 2.04% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
9 Kent State 0.84 43.37% 2.34% 0.66% 0.09% 0.09%
8 Indiana 0.95 61.99% 20.55% 9.73% 4.53% 4.50%
4 Vanderbilt 0.88 77.08% 23.66% 2.22% 0.41% 0.41%
9 Arkansas 0.91 38.01% 9.01% 3.25% 1.14% 1.13%
13 Siena 0.69 22.92% 2.83% 0.10% 0.01% 0.01%
4 Wash. St. 0.96 91.16% 61.12% 28.60% 15.92% 15.80%
5 Clemson 0.96 77.25% 61.20% 12.83% 5.10% 5.11%
13 Winthrop 0.71 8.84% 1.67% 0.14% 0.02% 0.02%
12 Villanova 0.88 22.75% 12.32% 1.08% 0.19% 0.19%
5 Notre Dame 0.94 81.77% 34.30% 12.09% 5.21% 5.17%
3 Wisconsin 0.98 95.85% 70.01% 47.45% 18.64% 18.65%
12 Geo. Mason 0.77 18.23% 2.91% 0.33% 0.05% 0.05%
14 Cal. St.-F'ton 0.7 4.15% 0.44% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
3 Louisville 0.97 94.97% 73.03% 45.22% 23.39% 23.21%
6 USC 0.94 43.54% 11.65% 4.82% 0.94% 0.94%
14 Boise St. 0.6 5.03% 0.77% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00%
11 Kansas St. 0.96 56.46% 17.90% 8.49% 1.97% 1.97%
6 Oklahoma 0.91 58.90% 16.93% 6.28% 1.74% 1.73%
7 Gonzaga 0.93 55.68% 17.27% 4.51% 0.74% 0.74%
11 St. Joseph's 0.87 41.10% 9.27% 2.74% 0.59% 0.58%
10 Davidson 0.91 44.32% 11.82% 2.62% 0.36% 0.36%
7 Butler 0.92 71.22% 25.34% 9.07% 2.73% 2.71%
2 Georgetown 0.97 96.35% 70.56% 32.06% 9.55% 9.55%
10 S. Alabama 0.82 28.78% 5.59% 1.09% 0.17% 0.16%
15 Md.-B.C. 0.55 3.65% 0.35% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
2 Tennessee 0.96 95.67% 68.58% 35.50% 16.33% 16.20%



800.00% 400.00% 200.00% 99.95% 100.00%
15 American 0.5 4.33% 0.49% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%












800.00% 399.97% 199.97% 100.79% 100.00%

















West
South

Team Pyth. Win % Second Round Sweet Sixteen Regional Final Final Four

Team Pyth. Win % Second Round Sweet Sixteen Regional Final Final Four

Raw Adj.

Raw Adj.
1 UCLA 0.98 99.85% 77.80% 62.02% 43.71% 43.24%
1 Memphis 0.98 98.84% 84.41% 65.51% 44.22% 43.51%
16 Miss. Valley St. 0.08 0.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Texas-Arlington 0.4 1.16% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 BYU 0.89 28.22% 3.46% 1.25% 0.35% 0.34%
8 Miss. St. 0.91 51.46% 8.16% 3.20% 1.82% 1.79%
9 Texas A&M 0.95 71.78% 18.74% 10.94% 5.50% 5.44%
9 Oregon 0.91 48.54% 7.35% 2.79% 1.38% 1.35%
4 U Conn 0.94 88.85% 50.88% 14.10% 6.23% 6.17%
4 Pittsburgh 0.94 78.83% 38.74% 10.65% 3.91% 3.84%
13 San Diego 0.68 11.15% 1.75% 0.09% 0.01% 0.01%
13 Oral Roberts 0.81 21.17% 4.69% 0.49% 0.08% 0.08%
5 Drake 0.94 74.68% 39.82% 10.71% 4.61% 4.56%
5 Mich. St. 0.95 79.26% 49.82% 16.48% 7.18% 7.06%
12 WKU 0.85 25.32% 7.55% 0.89% 0.18% 0.18%
12 Temple 0.85 20.74% 6.74% 0.87% 0.19% 0.19%
3 Xavier 0.95 84.34% 50.11% 20.28% 7.13% 7.06%
3 Stanford 0.96 94.32% 53.70% 26.85% 11.14% 10.97%
14 Georgia 0.78 15.66% 3.41% 0.40% 0.04% 0.04%
14 Cornell 0.61 5.68% 0.50% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
6 Purdue 0.94 62.23% 31.59% 11.36% 3.54% 3.50%
6 Marquette 0.96 80.13% 41.30% 20.27% 8.23% 8.10%
11 Baylor 0.91 37.77% 14.89% 3.83% 0.85% 0.84%
11 Kentucky 0.86 19.87% 4.50% 0.96% 0.15% 0.15%
7 West Virginia 0.94 49.97% 16.26% 8.41% 2.71% 2.68%
7 Miami (FL) 0.89 49.84% 10.11% 2.55% 0.49% 0.48%
10 Arizona 0.94 50.03% 16.29% 8.43% 2.72% 2.69%
10 Saint Mary's 0.89 50.16% 10.23% 2.59% 0.50% 0.50%
2 Duke 0.97 97.41% 67.31% 47.27% 23.50% 23.25%
2 Texas 0.97 97.57% 79.43% 46.73% 22.33% 21.97%
15 Belmont 0.5 2.59% 0.15% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
15 Austin Peay 0.46 2.43% 0.24% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%



800.00% 400.00% 200.00% 101.09% 100.00%



800.00% 400.00% 200.00% 101.62% 100.00%


















Play-in: Mt. St. Mary's
0.47 88.84%












Coppin State
0.1 11.16%












Some interesting notes:

  • Despite the fact that UNC is the #1 overall seed, they have a slightly lower percentage likelihood of making it to the second round than the other #1 seeds.
  • UNC is also the least likely to make it to the Final Four.
  • Kansas is the most likely #1 seed to make it, and the most likely overall.
  • Georgetown is the least likely 2 seed to make it.  Duke is the most likely.
  • Louisville is the most likely #3 seed to make it.  Xavier is the least likely.
  • Of the #11 seeds, Kansas State is the most likely to make it.  Kentucky is the least likely.

You can play all kinds of games with this, but don't take it too seriously.  If statistical analysis were all there was to it, we wouldn't bother to play the games.  Thanks again to Kyvampyre for performing this calculation for our edification and benefit.  It is much appreciated.

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You guys are giving ...
...me a serious headache with all your charts and such :)

by Ken Howlett on Mar 17, 2008 2:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Or ...
"How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Statistics" :-)

by Truzenzuzex on Mar 17, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stats
Were always my weak point.

by FortyYearCatFan on Mar 17, 2008 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kentucky - Final Four - .15%
So your sayin' there's a chance?

:)

by sylvar on Mar 17, 2008 3:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Odds about like...
Georgia winning the SEC tournament, or a tornado hitting downtown Atlanta.

by cthom on Mar 17, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Love the chart...
...blowing out my Firefox.

LOUD NOISES!

The Online home of Big Blue Nation ...

by JL Blue on Mar 17, 2008 4:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh ...
quit complaining and spring for a widescreen monitor.

:-)

It was either stretch the screen a bit vertically or horizontally.  A loser either way.  I'll move it to the second page in a little while.

by Truzenzuzex on Mar 17, 2008 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I love the stats
I'm also a baseball fan who loves to read Rob Neyer, Hardball Times, and other such websites so I love charts and stats and percentages ;-)
Looking for a rock to wind a piece of string around.

by JLeverenz on Mar 17, 2008 10:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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