Log 5 Table of the NCAA Tournament -- Who Has The Best Chance to Win?

by Truzenzuzex on Mar 17, 2008 2:27 PM EDT in Basketball Comment 10 comments

We did it for the SEC tournament, now we will do it for the Big Dance.

Kyvampyre has again created a Log5 calculation of the entire NCAA tournament. A team's percentage chances to win in each round have been calculated using the same technique as described in our earlier post for the SEC championship.

Obviously, this is nothing to get excited about, it just shows something of a statistical look at the NCAA tournament based on the Pythagorean Winning Percentage calculation. You can find our more about that at Ken Pomeroy's site, or by looking at various other places around the Internet.

Here is the data. I think you will find this interesting, and I will have some comments at the end. The data follows after the break:

Midwest								East
	Team	Pyth. Win %	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Regional Final	Final Four			Team	Pyth. Win %	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Regional Final	Final Four
	Team	Pyth. Win %	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Regional Final	Raw	Adj.		Team	Pyth. Win %	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Regional Final	Raw	Adj.
1	Kansas	0.99	98.54%	93.54%	81.80%	61.73%	61.76%	1	North Carolina	0.97	97.93%	70.29%	45.82%	28.95%	28.73%
16	Portland St.	0.63	1.46%	0.32%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	16	Coppin State	0.1	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	UNLV	0.87	56.63%	3.80%	1.27%	0.22%	0.22%	16	Mt. St. Mary's	0.47	2.04%	0.12%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
9	Kent State	0.84	43.37%	2.34%	0.66%	0.09%	0.09%	8	Indiana	0.95	61.99%	20.55%	9.73%	4.53%	4.50%
4	Vanderbilt	0.88	77.08%	23.66%	2.22%	0.41%	0.41%	9	Arkansas	0.91	38.01%	9.01%	3.25%	1.14%	1.13%
13	Siena	0.69	22.92%	2.83%	0.10%	0.01%	0.01%	4	Wash. St.	0.96	91.16%	61.12%	28.60%	15.92%	15.80%
5	Clemson	0.96	77.25%	61.20%	12.83%	5.10%	5.11%	13	Winthrop	0.71	8.84%	1.67%	0.14%	0.02%	0.02%
12	Villanova	0.88	22.75%	12.32%	1.08%	0.19%	0.19%	5	Notre Dame	0.94	81.77%	34.30%	12.09%	5.21%	5.17%
3	Wisconsin	0.98	95.85%	70.01%	47.45%	18.64%	18.65%	12	Geo. Mason	0.77	18.23%	2.91%	0.33%	0.05%	0.05%
14	Cal. St.-F'ton	0.7	4.15%	0.44%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	3	Louisville	0.97	94.97%	73.03%	45.22%	23.39%	23.21%
6	USC	0.94	43.54%	11.65%	4.82%	0.94%	0.94%	14	Boise St.	0.6	5.03%	0.77%	0.07%	0.00%	0.00%
11	Kansas St.	0.96	56.46%	17.90%	8.49%	1.97%	1.97%	6	Oklahoma	0.91	58.90%	16.93%	6.28%	1.74%	1.73%
7	Gonzaga	0.93	55.68%	17.27%	4.51%	0.74%	0.74%	11	St. Joseph's	0.87	41.10%	9.27%	2.74%	0.59%	0.58%
10	Davidson	0.91	44.32%	11.82%	2.62%	0.36%	0.36%	7	Butler	0.92	71.22%	25.34%	9.07%	2.73%	2.71%
2	Georgetown	0.97	96.35%	70.56%	32.06%	9.55%	9.55%	10	S. Alabama	0.82	28.78%	5.59%	1.09%	0.17%	0.16%
15	Md.-B.C.	0.55	3.65%	0.35%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	2	Tennessee	0.96	95.67%	68.58%	35.50%	16.33%	16.20%
			800.00%	400.00%	200.00%	99.95%	100.00%	15	American	0.5	4.33%	0.49%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%
											800.00%	399.97%	199.97%	100.79%	100.00%

West								South
	Team	Pyth. Win %	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Regional Final	Final Four			Team	Pyth. Win %	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Regional Final	Final Four
	Team	Pyth. Win %	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Regional Final	Raw	Adj.		Team	Pyth. Win %	Second Round	Sweet Sixteen	Regional Final	Raw	Adj.
1	UCLA	0.98	99.85%	77.80%	62.02%	43.71%	43.24%	1	Memphis	0.98	98.84%	84.41%	65.51%	44.22%	43.51%
16	Miss. Valley St.	0.08	0.15%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	16	Texas-Arlington	0.4	1.16%	0.08%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	BYU	0.89	28.22%	3.46%	1.25%	0.35%	0.34%	8	Miss. St.	0.91	51.46%	8.16%	3.20%	1.82%	1.79%
9	Texas A&M	0.95	71.78%	18.74%	10.94%	5.50%	5.44%	9	Oregon	0.91	48.54%	7.35%	2.79%	1.38%	1.35%
4	U Conn	0.94	88.85%	50.88%	14.10%	6.23%	6.17%	4	Pittsburgh	0.94	78.83%	38.74%	10.65%	3.91%	3.84%
13	San Diego	0.68	11.15%	1.75%	0.09%	0.01%	0.01%	13	Oral Roberts	0.81	21.17%	4.69%	0.49%	0.08%	0.08%
5	Drake	0.94	74.68%	39.82%	10.71%	4.61%	4.56%	5	Mich. St.	0.95	79.26%	49.82%	16.48%	7.18%	7.06%
12	WKU	0.85	25.32%	7.55%	0.89%	0.18%	0.18%	12	Temple	0.85	20.74%	6.74%	0.87%	0.19%	0.19%
3	Xavier	0.95	84.34%	50.11%	20.28%	7.13%	7.06%	3	Stanford	0.96	94.32%	53.70%	26.85%	11.14%	10.97%
14	Georgia	0.78	15.66%	3.41%	0.40%	0.04%	0.04%	14	Cornell	0.61	5.68%	0.50%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Purdue	0.94	62.23%	31.59%	11.36%	3.54%	3.50%	6	Marquette	0.96	80.13%	41.30%	20.27%	8.23%	8.10%
11	Baylor	0.91	37.77%	14.89%	3.83%	0.85%	0.84%	11	Kentucky	0.86	19.87%	4.50%	0.96%	0.15%	0.15%
7	West Virginia	0.94	49.97%	16.26%	8.41%	2.71%	2.68%	7	Miami (FL)	0.89	49.84%	10.11%	2.55%	0.49%	0.48%
10	Arizona	0.94	50.03%	16.29%	8.43%	2.72%	2.69%	10	Saint Mary's	0.89	50.16%	10.23%	2.59%	0.50%	0.50%
2	Duke	0.97	97.41%	67.31%	47.27%	23.50%	23.25%	2	Texas	0.97	97.57%	79.43%	46.73%	22.33%	21.97%
15	Belmont	0.5	2.59%	0.15%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	15	Austin Peay	0.46	2.43%	0.24%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
			800.00%	400.00%	200.00%	101.09%	100.00%				800.00%	400.00%	200.00%	101.62%	100.00%

	Play-in:	Mt. St. Mary's		0.47	88.84%
		Coppin State		0.1	11.16%

Some interesting notes:

Despite the fact that UNC is the #1 overall seed, they have a slightly lower percentage likelihood of making it to the second round than the other #1 seeds.
UNC is also the least likely to make it to the Final Four.
Kansas is the most likely #1 seed to make it, and the most likely overall.
Georgetown is the least likely 2 seed to make it. Duke is the most likely.
Louisville is the most likely #3 seed to make it. Xavier is the least likely.
Of the #11 seeds, Kansas State is the most likely to make it. Kentucky is the least likely.

You can play all kinds of games with this, but don't take it too seriously. If statistical analysis were all there was to it, we wouldn't bother to play the games. Thanks again to Kyvampyre for performing this calculation for our edification and benefit. It is much appreciated.

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