How About We Play a Little of Bilas' "Who should be in?"
Jay Bilas famously played a "Who should be in?" comparison between Kentucky and Villanova the other day during the Villanova-Syracuse game, claiming that Villanova had a better argument for getting in the NCAA tourney than UK. How about we play a little of that ourselves?
Here are Kentucky, Villanova, and three other teams who are expected to be in the tournament:
| School | ||||||||||
| School |
Kentucky |
School K |
School B |
School C |
Villanova | |||||
| Region |
KY |
Midwest | Southwest |
West |
PA | |||||
| Founded | 1865 | 1863 | 1845 | 1880 | 1842 | |||||
| School Type | Public | Public | Private | Private | Private | |||||
| Enrollment | 26,545 | 23,182 | 13,799 | 32,000 | 6,250 | |||||
| Rankings | ||||||||||
| Conf Standing | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | |||||
| AP Rank | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| RPI | 0.5778 | 0.5817 | 0.5912 | 0.5915 | 0.5761 | |||||
| RPI Rank | 48 | 45 | 32 | 31 | 50 | |||||
| SOS | 0.5776 | 0.5676 | 0.5661 | 0.5741 | 0.5543 | |||||
| SOS Rank | 12 | 24 | 29 | 14 | 52 | |||||
| Wins & Losses | ||||||||||
| Overall | 18-11 | (62.1%) | 20-10 | (66.7%) | 21-9 | (70.0%) | 20-10 | (66.7%) | 20-11 | (64.5%) |
| Home | 14-4 | (77.8%) | 15-2 | (88.2%) | 12-4 | (75.0%) | 10-5 | (66.7%) | 12-3 | (80.0%) |
| Away | 4-6 | (40.0%) | 3-5 | (37.5%) | 6-4 | (60.0%) | 7-4 | (63.6%) | 4-7 | (36.4%) |
| Neutral | 0-1 | (0.0%) | 2-3 | (40.0%) | 3-1 | (75.0%) | 3-1 | (75.0%) | 4-1 | (80.0%) |
| Conference | 12-4 | (75.0%) | 10-6 | (62.5%) | 9-7 | (56.3%) | 11-7 | (61.1%) | 9-9 | (50.0%) |
| Top 25 | 2-4 | (33.3%) | 2-3 | (40.0%) | 2-4 | (33.3%) | 3-6 | (33.3%) | 2-4 | (33.3%) |
| Blowout (> 19) | 5-1 | (83.3%) | 9-1 | (90.0%) | 6-0 | (100.0%) | 6-1 | (85.7%) | 4-1 | (80.0%) |
| Close (< 6) | 5-3 | (62.5%) | 2-2 | (50.0%) | 2-3 | (40.0%) | 1-2 | (33.3%) | 4-3 | (57.1%) |
| Overtime | 1-1 | (50.0%) | 1-1 | (50.0%) | 1-1 | (50.0%) | 1-1 | (50.0%) | 0-0 | (0.0%) |
| NCAA Tourney | 0-0 | (0.0%) | 0-0 | (0.0%) | 0-0 | (0.0%) | 0-0 | (0.0%) | 0-0 | (0.0%) |
Who is the better team among these 5? Who is the most deserving of an invitation to the tournament? Let's have some sound reasoning and brilliant arguments.
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73 comments
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Purely by the
I also think that the CATS are a much scarier of an 'out' in the tournament compared to someone like Villanova.
Oh yeah, and Kentuck's fan base is monumental and a solid draw at the gate and on the tv.
By the numbers, it doesn't look good, but everything else is saying the contrary. I think we are in. Moreover, I think we might get screwed with a 9 seed, or if we do get a ten seed it will be in a braket with Kansas as the 2.
If things really fall the CATS way, they will win the SECT with at least one big signature win and sneak out a 7 seed somehow.
by cdnWildcatfan on
Mar 13, 2008 7:01 PM EDT
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Quickly....
School C from the west seems to me to be the most deserving of those listed. (I'm guessing, I promise, Stanford)-- They are 10-5 away from home, with a 14 schedule rank--Both impressive. RPI of 31 couple with a 11-7 conference record should be more than ample numbers to get this team in, and will probably be a 5 to 7 seed.
By the way, Bilas is delusional if he sincerely thinks 'Nova and UK have similar resumes.
My theory, Ashley rebuffed his awkward advances.
Sound reasoning and brilliant argument? Probably not, but it's the best I can do right now :)
by Ken Howlett on
Mar 13, 2008 7:07 PM EDT
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Not Stanford, they are ranked in the Top 25
by Ken Howlett on
Mar 13, 2008 10:43 PM EDT
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Correct.
by Truzenzuzex on
Mar 13, 2008 10:44 PM EDT
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UK looks a lot better...
But just on these #s: conference wins have to count for something. If you just squeak by .500 in conference, you should be much further down the bubble. I think UK goes by against any of these teams based on that fact alone. I also like School C's resume; the rest, not so much.
(And our San Diego loss now looks pretty good. And nice that two other bubble teams, Houston & UAB, lost too. & congrats to Tubby on pulling one out today.)
by CW on
Mar 13, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
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Shake 'em out
#2 The numbers say school B, what the numbers don't show is B is 5-5 in its last 10 games.
#3 Kentucky
#4 School K, These numbers here would have these schools tied, but the last 10 games is 8-2 vs 5-5, that's why Kentucky is ahead.
#5 Villanova - dead last just because the East Coast establishment is trying to make them relevant.
by sweasyf on
Mar 13, 2008 7:45 PM EDT
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I would rank this way, if forced to.
- School C. Best overall on RPI and SOS. Best overall on away and neutral games (similar to tourney conditions). Most top-25 games (though not any better than any other). No significant negative.
- School B. Best overall remaining RPI and SOS. Best remaining away/neutral record. Best overall record.
- School K. Best remaining RPI. Fair away/neutral.
- Villanova. Similar RPI to Kentucky, but worse SOS. Much, much better away/neutral record. 20 wins.
- Kentucky. Sorry, Cats fans. I tried to move them higher. My preferences are explained next:
- RPI. I like this much better than SOS. Faulty it may be, it does a better job at correlating than SOS does.
- Away/Neutral. This is more like tourney conditions. I even think road games are better for tourney estimation than home games. That 4-1 neutral of 'Nova really sways me strongly.
- Numerical values rather than rankings. Such as RPI, where the numerical gap between Kentucky and School K is much larger than the ranking would suggest, and vice versa for Kentucky and Villanova.
- Top 25. This is more of an in-between, but it's high enough to put here. Again, the scheduling is too sketchy to put too much value into this, but good performance against good teams should be rewarded. So I don't penalize much if few games are played, but a lot of good top-25 games is worth noting.
- SOS. As mentioned before, I don't give it much thought. Unless a team obviously lowballed the nonconference schedule (none of them did) for the sake of wins, then it shouldn't matter. I certainly don't discount for a weak conference, because no team has a real choice in those games. I'll use this to validate RPI, but that's it, and even that's sketchy.
- Overall A significantly better overall should be more deserving than a lesser overall. But that's usually not a factor when comparing bubble teams.
- Conference Standing. Again, I don't fault teams for tough or weak conferences. (BTW, I'd put Kentucky at 3 in-conference behind MSU, but that's irrelevant for my post.)
- Blowout/Close/Overtime You can make conjectures about these, but I don't think they're worth consideration. Unless a team makes a habit of blowing out top-10 teams, they're usually blowouts against Little Sisters of the Poor. And those who blow out good teams usually don't have to worry about this argument in the first place.
- School size. I think bigger schools are favorably treated anymore due to fan draw.
- Overall fan base. Like school size, it's all about the money. When it's all said and done, the tourney cares about profit, not about which teams are in. Better put, they care about the teams only so far as the profit margin is concerned.
- Location. I do think they try to balance the tourney with teams from across the country (to a minor degree). It helps assure viewership in the earlier rounds in all time zones, which helps sell ad time.
by hooper on
Mar 13, 2008 8:11 PM EDT
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Oh, and with this
by hooper on
Mar 13, 2008 8:23 PM EDT
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You place ...
For neutral games, Kentucky has had far fewer opportunities in the neutral arena due to an early loss to Gardner-Webb. That loss not only counted as a home loss (which it was), but prevented UK from playing at least two and possibly 3 neutral-site games. So you really can't draw any conclusions at all from the "neutral" side of the equation, because Kentucky has only played one neutral game, which was not all that neutral -- it was at Freedom hall in Louisville against UAB, a game which I attended and which was 100-1 in favor of UK. So saying a team like Villanova has a "much better road/neutral record" is only technically correct. In reality, you can't really make a comparison including neutral games due to the incomparable number of attempts.
On the away side, Kentucky has a better record than 3 of the five teams in question. Add in a 12-4 conference record in the fourth toughest RPI conference in the land, a very comparable record against the top 25, and putting them last simply makes no sense at all. I could understand putting them 3rd or even fourth, but it is simply not defensible to put them below Villanova, especially considering their significantly weaker SOS and weaker RPI.
Kentucky, of these five, has the strongest SOS and the forth best RPI, the third best road record and much the best conference record. That matters more than many think because games in conference are against teams that know you best, your strengths, weaknesses and tendencies. You can't hide your flaws in conference like you can outside the conference.
As far as the other considerations go, we could only speculate. I have no idea about those things, and frankly, hope you are wrong about all that. It would be troubling to think people got overlooked because they were too far west, or too small. If that is the best the NCAA can do, they should stop pretending that the process is supposed to be fair and equitable.
by Truzenzuzex on
Mar 13, 2008 10:29 PM EDT
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All good points.
I don't doubt that my weighting is different than most. To be honest, I don't like using only a table like this to separate similar teams. As noted by KH early on, there's a lot more to the story. And I don't have a problem with the way that other people weight the numbers; that was simply the logic I used. I don't like SOS simply because it doesn't tell you anything about how the team actually did; it tells you how well their opponents did. (I know that opponent strength tells you about the value of the record, but it's not as clear as it seems, and it's indirect evidence. I disagree with about 99% of people on that, and I'm ok with that. I don't think less of any differing opinion.)
Well, whether my reasoning was sound or my argument brilliant, it was honest. And equally honest is that I don't really see any separation between the bottom three. Any other order of them wouldn't faze me in the least.
by hooper on
Mar 13, 2008 10:44 PM EDT
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In hindsight,
by hooper on
Mar 13, 2008 10:47 PM EDT
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I agree ...
So hairs must be split, sometimes to molecular thickness.
:-)
by Truzenzuzex on
Mar 13, 2008 10:47 PM EDT
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Ha! Gotcha...
by wldcatsfreak on
Mar 13, 2008 10:30 PM EDT
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That's hilarious!
But I guess I say, "I'm got!"
by hooper on
Mar 13, 2008 10:46 PM EDT
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neutralsite games
by i got the blues on
Mar 13, 2008 10:10 PM EDT
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Brilliant Mathmatical Analysis
I rated each team 1 through 5, with 1 being best and 5 being worst, in the following categories: RPI Rank, SOS Rank, Overall Record, Away/Neutral Combined Record, Conference Record, and Win/Loss Versus The Top 25. The team with the best "record" in each category received 1 point, the second best "record" 2 points, etc..
I did not include where each team finished in conference, because I don't know how many teams are in the conferences of the teams represented. Besides, their conference records are sufficient data for this highly analytical experiment. I did not include home records, because they are not considered "weighty" to the Selection Committee. I also did not consider margin of victory(or overtimes), because those stats are totally irrelevent.
Drum roll please; remember, less is more,
School C- 10 points
School B- 15 points
School K- 16 points
Kentucky- 18 points
Villanova- 24 points
So there you have it sports fans. My bet is that C, B, K, and UK all make the Tournament. 'Nova will probably not be so fortunate.
by Ken Howlett on
Mar 13, 2008 11:12 PM EDT
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Kentucky Is Best Of Those 5
(2) 12-4 in SEC.
(3) I don't root for K, B, C, or Villanova.
by FortyYearCatFan on
Mar 13, 2008 11:12 PM EDT
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Hey, while you're at this.
by hooper on
Mar 13, 2008 11:22 PM EDT
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Gar. Posted too fast.
by hooper on
Mar 13, 2008 11:24 PM EDT
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Thanks for the link.
If one scrolls down to the breakdown of the SEC and who has "work to do", Glockner states that UK needs to beat "Mississippi" to remove itself from the perilous bubble. Mr. Glockner assumes a lot considering Ole Miss is being spanked at the moment by Georgia. There is still 11 minutes left, though.
I'm rooting hard for Georgia because of Dennis Felton. I am a huge fan of his. He is an excellent coach who has encountered some major player issues unrelated to his ability to coach and recruit.
by Ken Howlett on
Mar 13, 2008 11:36 PM EDT
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Honestly ...
You have to keep in mind which conferences these teams play in. Dayton plays in the A-10, a conference with an average team RPI rank of 127 vs 58 for the SEC. Dayton also lost to Xavier 3 times if you include the conference tourney. Xavier is a great team, but surely no better than Tennessee.
Then we have the "beat Pitt and won at Louisville" argument. They beat Louisville when they were 48th in the RPI and Pitt when they were 7th. Kentucky beat Vandy when they were 12th in the RPI and Tennessee when they were #1 in the RPI. And those two cancel each other out?
Glockner's argument, in my judgment, simply doesn't hold water. And that goes without even noting that Dayton lost 5 out of their last 10 games. Compare that to Kentucky's 8-2 in a much stronger conference, and you'll have to forgive me for not being impressed with his reasoning.
by Truzenzuzex on
Mar 14, 2008 7:50 AM EDT
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IMO...
by wldcatsfreak on
Mar 13, 2008 11:28 PM EDT
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Bubble teams going down today...
Even if they do, Ramel has already said how much he likes playing in the SEC tournament. Good news.
by CW on
Mar 14, 2008 12:48 AM EDT
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Check out Donovan going nuclear on his team......
Conversely, our Coach Gillispie takes NO credit for the play of Bradley and Crawford, as it pertains to their one-on-in skills.(Tipton's article)
by Ken Howlett on
Mar 14, 2008 1:35 AM EDT
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LINK
http://www. courier-journal.com/blogs/bozich/blog.html
by Ken Howlett on
Mar 14, 2008 1:36 AM EDT
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Once again
by Ken Howlett on
Mar 14, 2008 1:41 AM EDT
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Donovan going ballistic
Schlabach on ESPN.com has a similar article with those quotes. I admit... I'm stunned.
""It's in front of our guys, what it takes to win," Donovan said. "For whatever reason, I haven't brought it out in them. They're not committed to it. But I'm not necessarily really that excited about these guys being sophomores, to be honest. I don't think people change a whole lot, and I don't think you've seen the basketball team change at all this year. So it's hard for me to get overly thrilled or excited.""
""I think we have some talent issues on the defensive end of the floor, footspeed-wise, that sometimes is not all their fault," Donovan said. "But I think we have a commitment issue, too, which bothers me as a coach because I just got done coaching a group the last two years that was so committed. And to be with this group, I don't think just because they're going to be another year older that all of a sudden, everything gets resolved. I don't see that.""
"When Parsons told reporters Florida simply wasn't ready to play against Alabama, Donovan bristled at the suggestion. To say the team wasn't ready to play, I've got to take responsibility for that because I think that's my job," Donovan said. "That's disappointing to hear." "
Those are certainly some damning and disheartening comments from Billy D... I guess we've just been lucky at Kentucky in that I could never picture Pitino, Tubby, or Billy G saying those things. I wonder if Donovan has a sign on his desk that says "The buck stops over there -->"
What makes it even more disturbing is that they may not be done this season. Obviously the NIT isn't what top tier teams play for, but its still a quality tournament with growing experiences for your team going into next year. How do you get ready to play a tourney game in a couple weeks with quotes like that floating around teh intrawebz?
by chirop1 on
Mar 14, 2008 6:58 AM EDT
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I don't know ...
The problem seems to be that all the basketball smarts is vested in one person right now -- Calathes. The other guys are talented, but they remind me very much of Kentucky on defense earlier this year, too often in the wrong place.
I think Donovan took appropriate responsibility, and he is right in the sense that it is shared by everyone on the team, including its members. I found the assessment honest, if a bit harsh, about his players.
by Truzenzuzex on
Mar 14, 2008 7:09 AM EDT
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Somewhat agree
Now, contrast what he said about players not changing with what we have seen happen at UK this year. I think I'd have more respect for him if he stood up and took a little responsibility for his teams lack of effort since clearly the coaching job he did this year was sub-par.
by sylvar on
Mar 14, 2008 11:05 AM EDT
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Ditto
He takes a bit of responsibility early in his comments, but the overriding theme was that his team sucks, and he sees the suckage continuing because he doesn't thnk they will get any better. He doesn't think people change....what? That's just an ignorant comment borne from his frustration.
Like his mentor Traitor Rick who called G-Town "lucky" after a recent loss to the Hoyas, Donovan needs to simply say, "we were outplayed, we'll get better" and be done with it. Diatibes such as this make one look like a sore loser, in my view.
Anyway, good luck to the team PPat should be playing for. The NIT has a FF in New York, that should be the Gator goal.
Addendum: Don't kid yourself folks, Florida will be a top 10 team next year. I suspect this hiccup will not bleed over to '08-'09.
by Ken Howlett on
Mar 14, 2008 11:30 AM EDT
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Donovan gets an F
Kudos for going back to back but UF is the current version of UNLV, not the new Duke.
by BeatUL on
Mar 14, 2008 6:32 AM EDT
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Worse ...
You're joking, right?
by Truzenzuzex on
Mar 14, 2008 7:09 AM EDT
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Yes worse...
One thing about Tubby, for the most part, he was consistent in coaching and what his teams looked like at the end of the year. Inconsistent in recruiting. Billy D., just the opposite, for the most part.
by BeatUL on
Mar 14, 2008 11:38 AM EDT
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UNLV
by FortyYearCatFan on
Mar 14, 2008 8:12 AM EDT
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Where are they now?
by sylvar on
Mar 14, 2008 11:08 AM EDT
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They were the most dominate or 90 and 91
Can't wait for more meaningless stats.
by BeatUL on
Mar 14, 2008 11:30 AM EDT
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Vegas.....
Stating that the '90 and '91 UNLV teams were the most dominant team of the '90's is wrong, in my opinion. It was Duke who won back-to-back Titles, beating Vegas along the way in '91.
They were very, very talented without a doubt, but to be truly dominant a team has to sport rings as tangible evidence of said dominance. Vegas has one, Duke has two, plus Duke played in 3 straight championship games.
A solid argument can be made that UK from '96-'98 was the most dominant program during the '90's. Three straight championship game appearances made by 3 significantly different groups of players.
I love the way Tark snubbed his nose at the NCAA, but his lack of committment to following the rules troubles me when evaluating his success.
by Ken Howlett on
Mar 14, 2008 11:38 AM EDT
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Let's ask more valid question -
by blueblood on
Mar 14, 2008 2:01 AM EDT
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Easy call..
by BeatUL on
Mar 14, 2008 6:26 AM EDT
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The road forward.. .
I'm rooting for Alabama today too. I'd rather face them tomorrow than Mississippi State and that beanpole foul-immune shot blocking machine.
Just some thoughts from a guy stuck at home with food poisoning. I'm in absolute hell right now, but at least I can watch as much basketball as I want.
by blbskue on
Mar 14, 2008 9:10 AM EDT
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Bilas responds ...
In comparing resumes, UK makes a pretty good case, but it is much closer than many seem to believe, that's all. The good news is, there are relatively few good teams at the end of the line.
I prefer to look at the entire body of work, and use my basketball judgment to determine the 34 best teams. I believe that UK will make it, but it will be a healthy discussion.
... And, if people doubt that I like and respect UK, consider my past effusive comments about the Cats and the fact that my neice is a senior at UK right now.
So there you go ...
The Online home of Big Blue Nation ...
by JL Blue on
Mar 14, 2008 10:41 AM EDT
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Backtracking at its finest.....
I'll give him this; he has been very fair and even-handed when evaluating UK over the last several years.
Perhaps his niece received a perceived unfair grade in one of her classes which caused Bilas to turn anti-'Cat this year.
by Ken Howlett on
Mar 14, 2008 11:19 AM EDT
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I've ...
I think his earlier comments are misguided, but that is more opinion than anything else. He's certainly entitled to his.
by Truzenzuzex on
Mar 14, 2008 2:41 PM EDT
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Tonight's game..
by BeatUL on
Mar 14, 2008 11:39 AM EDT
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online
i don't understand this...they showed all four games yesterday, but apparently only showing the first two games online today. i hope that gets updated later in the day.
the only game i can watch on tv is sunday's championship game, so it would really suck if raycom doesn't show all the games before that.
by UKWildCatFanatic on
Mar 14, 2008 12:10 PM EDT
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Yahoo
by bluecrip on
Mar 14, 2008 12:26 PM EDT
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Somewhat off topic
http://bracketproject.atspace.com/comparison.htm
Its a compliation of 50+ bracket projections showing the avg seeding of each team across those brackets. Pretty interesting.
We get a 10 seed on avg.
by sylvar on
Mar 14, 2008 12:51 PM EDT
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11 would be better...
by sylvar on
Mar 14, 2008 1:56 PM EDT
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Mine, too.
by Truzenzuzex on
Mar 14, 2008 2:42 PM EDT
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Guessing.....
Kentucky
Kansas State
Baylor
USC
Nova
by MartinGolf9 on
Mar 14, 2008 1:01 PM EDT
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I'm not sure but I don't ...
by Ken Howlett on
Mar 14, 2008 1:42 PM EDT
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They are Private....
by MartinGolf9 on
Mar 14, 2008 2:28 PM EDT
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My thinking was...
You nailed it.
by Ken Howlett on
Mar 14, 2008 3:22 PM EDT
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One Point Game
by kentuckygirl0724 on
Mar 14, 2008 2:02 PM EDT
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Sadly....
by Ken Howlett on
Mar 14, 2008 3:18 PM EDT
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Really
by kentuckygirl0724 on
Mar 14, 2008 3:20 PM EDT
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Couldn't catch the game.
by hooper on
Mar 14, 2008 3:33 PM EDT
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IMO
by kentuckygirl0724 on
Mar 14, 2008 3:37 PM EDT
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It sounded to me like the bad officiating
At least, that's how I've come to understand it by indirect means. I couldn't catch the game, so my information and guesswork is secondhand and prone to error.
by hooper on
Mar 14, 2008 4:31 PM EDT
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What the hell ...
That was really unacceptable as a no-call. I sympathize with the unwillingness of the officials to make game-impacting calls in the last few seconds, and I generally agree with it, but you just can't let that one go. It was egregious, almost flagrant.
I can't say much about the rest of the game, but that no call was just wrong with a capital W. Odom should protest to the league about that one. It happed directly in front of the official, and he was looking directly at the incident. Not acceptable.
by Truzenzuzex on
Mar 14, 2008 3:41 PM EDT
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Especially
by kentuckygirl0724 on
Mar 14, 2008 3:45 PM EDT
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By the way...
Plus, I learned USC is a private school... you can't get this stuff just anywhere :)
Great post by Tru.
by Ken Howlett on
Mar 14, 2008 8:21 PM EDT
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