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Tennessee at Kentucky -- Statistical breakdown

Here is the statistical comparison between Tennessee and Kentucky.

If the last game looked like a mismatch, this one looks even worse.   But that's the way it goes.

There's really not too much good to find in these statistics for UK.  I'm a little surprised that we are so close to UT in defensive points/possession, which tells me their half-court defense isn't that good.  The problem is, they try to get the pace very high so they can bomb away early in the shot clock.  I'll have more later in my game analysis, but I believe that if we can control the tempo like we did against Vanderbilt, we have a shot at this game.  Vandy tried to play a high-pace game with Tennessee, and we all saw how well that worked for them.  If UT gets this game above 70 possessions, we are unlikely to win.

The biggest thing that Kentucky can do to help their cause today is shoot the ball better, and continue to play hard on the defensive end.  Pearl may not play as much screen and roll as Florida does, but everybody on their team can shoot the ball from the perimeter, and when you have a weapon like Chris Lofton, life is usually hard for the opposing team.  If you are a UK fan, you just have to hope that we get our best effort of the year tonight on both ends of the floor, because that's what it will take.

Thanks again to Statsheet.com and Basketball State for the statistical data.

Star-divide


Statistic UT UK Comments
Overall 16-1 7-9
Conference 3-0 1-2
Home 10-0 7-4
Away 3-0 0-4
Top 25 2-1 1-2
RPI Top 50 5-1 2-3
Ranking 13 NR BlogPoll
RPI 1 179 !
SOS 3 56 !
National rankings UT UK Comments
FG% 76 66
2 pt FG% 36 45
3 pt FG% 160 170
Possessions 75.1 69.6 We will try to control
Offensive Pts/Possession 9 125 As you'd expect
Defensive Pts/Possession 68 84 Not that bad
TO/gm 21 297 Yech.
APG 2 159 !
A/TO 1 248 UK=Ugly
Rebounds 33 126 Hmm...

Stat All Games Conference Games

UT UK UT UK Delta (adjusted for games played for all games) Comments
Total Games 17 16 3 3 1
Wins 16 7 3 1 9
Losses 1 9 0 2 -8
Pct 0.94 0.44 1 0.33 0.5
Field Goals Made 511 404 87 72 81.75
Field Goals Attempted 1100 865 192 176 180.94
Field Goal Percentage 0.47 0.47 0.45 0.41 0 Surprising. But SEC stat isn't as promising
Free Throws Made 271 246 43 51 9.63
Free Throws Attempted 415 323 63 66 71.81
Free Throw Percentage 0.65 0.76 0.68 0.77 -0.11 Always a plus
3pt Field Goals Made 162 100 28 18 55.75
3pt Field Goals Attempted 457 284 72 58 155.25
3pt Field Goal Percentage 0.35 0.35 0.39 0.31 0 Again, a bit surprising, but we are slumping. Are we due for a breakout?
Points 1455 1154 245 213 228.88
Points Per Game 85.6 72.1 81.7 71 13.5 Huge.
Rebounds 660 600 129 128 22.5
Rebounds Per Game 38.8 37.5 43 42.7 1.3
Offensive Rebounds 243 172 46 43 60.25
Offensive Rebounds Per Game 14.3 10.8 15.3 14.3 3.5 We have to do better than this.
Defensive Rebounds 392 390 79 72 -22.38
Defensive Rebounds Per Game 23.1 24.4 26.3 24 -1.3 This has been a weakness for UT all year. Can we exploit it?
Assists 344 217 55 35 127
Assists Per Game 20.2 13.6 18.3 11.7 6.6 Just wow.
Steals 193 126 25 27 67
Steals Per Game 11.4 7.9 8.3 9 3.5 No surprise, but closer than we may have expected.
Turnovers 210 274 38 48 -64
Turnovers Per Game 12.4 17.1 12.7 16 -4.7 No surprise.
Blocks 54 70 11 10 -16
Blocks Per Game 3.2 4.4 3.7 3.3 -1.2 At least we have an advantage in something.
Fouls 335 339 62 70 -4
Fouls Per Game 19.7 21.2 20.7 23.3 -1.5 The only team in the SEC that fouls as much as we do.
Disqualifications 0 13 0 4 -13


I'll have more pre-game analysis in a separate post, as usual.

0 recs  |  Comment 9 comments

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Tought team...
The Vols are the total package.  I feel like Dr. Robert Neville in "I Am Legend" when he describes the mutating virus which has taken control of humankind, who grimaces with grudging respect and says: "It is...  elegant."

That's how I feel about Tennessee.  They're fluid, move the ball extremely well, they're long, powerful, and they can all shoot.  Their defense is second to none and starts from the second you inbound the ball.  Their bench seems to go on forever and they're led by one of the hottest coaches in the business.

It will be a long shot for any SEC team -- any SEC team -- to beat them.  And if anyone can string together 16 SEC victories this year, it's Tennessee.  But I don't think they're going to do that.  They'll lose a few games, anywhere from 1-3 in my view, en route to an SEC title.

Tonight could be one of those games.  Tennessee could very easily be overlooking the struggling 'Cats.  For Kentucky, winning this game would have such huge meaning for the program at this stage in its transition: a validation of sorts.  I won't say it would "make Kentucky's season" because Kentucky is too successful a program to need to win a single game over a top-ranked opponent to be satisfied in that manner with a win.  But it would still be undeniably huge.

Tennessee is playing in Rupp.  It's not easy to win in Rupp, even when Kentucky's not at their usual best.  Kentucky always has a chance at home.

This game can be won.  It will require a higher level than we've seen all year from the 'Cats; fewer turnovers, better decisions by Bradley, some signs of development on the part of Patterson, and Jodie Meeks -- probably the best pure athlete on the team -- has to be "back".  It's not fair to expect or demand that he do that after an extended downtime due to injury, but a high level of play is really needed from him.

I think Jasper might be less than 100% for awhile, but if his shooting touch is there and he make a couple of buckets and eat the offensive glass like he tends to do, he can be a difference maker as well.

Not gonna lie: it's going to take an off night on the part of the Vols to make it possible.  A full-strength, clicking-on-all-cylinders UT squad can probably beat any team in the nation.

But it is possible.  And speaking on behalf of other SEC teams, we need Tennessee to lose some games.  So we'll be rooting for you tonight.  GO CATS!

"UK is going to beat UF twice this year. UF's amazingly soft schedule is going to come back to haunt them." --BeatUL

by Gatorpilot on Jan 22, 2008 9:30 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

It does not look good on paper...
but that's why we play the games.  I predicted several weeks ago that during one of our first 4 SEC games this team would "click" and get on fire.  I've seen glimpses of such a click but it has not happened completely yet.  Maybe tonight will be the night.  Go Cats!
Xbox Live Gamertag: Rone Tyr

by hoopchi on Jan 22, 2008 10:12 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Exactly ...
Games are not played on paper.  We have played nobody this close to full strength.

Hope never dies.

by Truzenzuzex on Jan 22, 2008 10:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Excellent post.
I haven't peeked here since the UT-UK football game (reminder: currently a UT student, though not from the South).  I thoroughly enjoy the UT-UK games precisely because of the nature of the two sides.  I fully expect a hard-fought game, and probably a close game that comes down to the final few minutes, but I haven't seen any UT or UK fans who have been ugly about the other side.  (To be honest, most UT fans were far more bitter prior to the Ohio State game than this one.)

From this side of the fence, I wish many thanks to Tru for a wonderful blog, and many thanks to the UK fan base for making this an energetic and thoroughly enjoyable conference rivalry.

by Hooper on Jan 22, 2008 11:28 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for stopping by ...
hooper.  You're always welcome.

UT and UK are rivals, but there is a certain closeness between the two schools, and a similarity in the passion of their fans, albeit for different sports.

Plus, many of us donning the blue have spent time in  Tennessee.  I grew up in Bristol on the Tennessee side, and had we not moved to Kentucky, would have attended the same high school as Derek Hord (Tennessee High).  Plus, I went to school at Western Kentucky, and spent many weekends in and around Nashville.

You guys showed us a lot of respect during football season.  The very least we can do is return the favor.  But we sure would like to send you home with an "L" tonight.

by Truzenzuzex on Jan 22, 2008 11:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

*chuckle* Naturally
It just wouldn't be right if you didn't wish UT to lose.  I just really appreciate a rivalry where the two sides cheer their brains out during the game, and shake hands afterwards (figuratively, for the most part).

I'm also glad to hear that the UT fans were respectful.  It's one of the things that first attracted me to UT sports (I'm a Westerner).  Hopefully, the only annoying thing we do is play/sing Rocky Top about a kazillion times.  Oh, and win.  That should be annoyance enough.

by Hooper on Jan 22, 2008 12:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Tennessee fans...
... I've always had a really good experience with them.  We went to Knoxville for the 2006 Gators-Vols football game and we were treated with kindness and respect.

The worst fans in the SEC (football-wise) are LSU, in my opinion.  They're pretty hard to like.  And Bama fans can be... annoying (although they're not as bad as, say, Ohio State or FSU fans.)

"UK is going to beat UF twice this year. UF's amazingly soft schedule is going to come back to haunt them." --BeatUL

by Gatorpilot on Jan 22, 2008 12:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Vols will Volunteer
a total beatdown tonight. Cats will lose by twenty something. Lofton won't let them "overlook" UK nor will Prince, who wasn't affected by not being recruited to UK, but the fact that his cousin played for us, he will want to have "one up" on his cuz for smack talk puposes.

I am not a naysayer or a doomsday prophet, I am just looking at this realistically without the benefit of paper. UK doesn't have the guns to get into a shootout nor does it have the talent to dictate tempo against UT, other teams like Florida maybe, but not UT. It sucks!@!!! At least you won't have to hear RockyTop in Rupp because by halftime the band would be clobbered for sounding like a broken record.

Hopefully, I am completely wrong and our boys pull a W out of their proverbial arses. We shall see.

GO BIG BLUE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by bluecrip on Jan 22, 2008 1:04 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

It appears teams always have at least one player..
...who comes out red hot against the Cats. I worry about Lofton in this game. If we don't contain him early we may seem him on Sportscenter's Top 10 plays of the day(As we did Varnando) Hold Chris to 20 or less and we've got a shot.
Stinky Blue

by Stinky Blue on Jan 22, 2008 1:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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