Almost famous
After checking around the web last night, I was pleasantly surprised with the Kentucky fanbase's generally even-keeled repsonse to yesterday's 64-61 loss at home to No. 1 Florida.
Expecting the usual flood of negativity and "I told you so" message board banter, it was generally a sort of resignation and appreciation for the Wildcats' efforts, however in vain.
But this morning, my polite disgust was replaced with that gnawing sense or entitlement that UK fans seem to posess in droves. Why am I still so happy with "almost"? And at the risk of turning into that which I so often rail against, where is the "Kentucky" brand of basketball?
Don't get me wrong. Compared to last year's bunch, this crew of Cats oozes heart and effort. They lack key components, and too frequently rely on the wrong personnel at key times (e.g. Bobby Perry, anytime).
But without dredging up more animosity, or repeating ad nauseum the recruiting refrains, am I really going to have to wait another year for the chance to see a win in a big game?
To recap this season:
• Big games in Maui = close loss to UCLA, big loss to Memphis
• Chance to rebound at UNC = game effort, loss
• 11-game win streak, home game vs. Vandy, chance for rankings return = home loss
• Bounce-back game at Georgia, big first half = close loss
• National TV audience, huge game against No. 1 at your house = close loss
This isn't to say there haven't been good times. Indiana is a better team than folks thought when we played them, and it's a win that has held up nicely. Louisville could end up slipping into the NCAA tournament, making that win seem more notable. And both rivalry games are "must win" when it comes to the home fans.
But even if we discard last season as the anomaly, the track record of showing up for big games for the current roster is pretty damning.
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I happen to be an apologist for the 2005 season, consistently marvelling at folks' inability to remember how close that group came to breaking the current "Final Four" curse. But looking back at the "big games" they won, you see the following:
• Game at #9 North Carolina = don't show up, loss
• Game at #13 Louisville = only miracle game from (now departed) Sparks overcomes rest of team's lethargy in close win
• Home game vs. #2 Kansas = never in it, loss
• Road game at #16 Bama = win, but guys still on team now provide just 16 of 78 UK points
• Pair of late losses to unranked Florida (road, SEC final)
The trend here is that while Kentucky is winning 23+ games, they are becoming a team that wins the games they are supposed to and comes "oh so close" in games they are either underdogs or on even standing with.
Is this just the makeup of the current group of players? So much ink has been spilled on the merits or lack thereof of our senior class. The juniors have a track record of disappearing, particularly offensively, on the biggest stage. Can this really be chalked up to just bad breaks?
In any event, my point is that I'm tired this morning of finding ways to explain why things didn't go the Cats' way. You make your own luck.
What's most frustrating is that for years I considered Tubby Smith the opposite. To me, he was the guy you wanted in the big games, even though he was prone to overlooking the lesser opponent. But as time has worn on, he's taken a turn towards the "Huggins," the guy who beats the beaten and takes solace in the close loss to a big-name opponent.
While I don't hyperventilate at the lack of Final Fours (I don't like it, but ... ), Smith's Kentucky record in the biggest NCAA games (Final Four, Elite Eight) is now 3-3, with all three wins coming in 1998's title run. Since? Three losses in three Final 8 games. Legitimate reasons for those losses? Of course.
But how long do I have to continue to be happy defending the fact that we're just happy to be there?
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I think that is a very fair question...
It seems impossible to "defend" an attitude that "we're just happy to be here" when you are an elite school like UK. Fortunately, I don't think most UK fans do. I think we all wonder when, in these last two seasons, the team will begin to assert itself again. Unfortunately, I think we have to face the possibility that it may not occur. I am not ready to cop to that, but so far, the team has a perfect record of disappointment.
So where does this leave us? Well, we were all abjectly happy when Crawford, Morris and Rondo signed on the dotted line. What hath this class wrought? Well, outside of a final 8 finish in their freshman year, arguably very little when compared to expectations. I think that many people see a bigger future with our current freshman class than our juniors.
So what is to blame for all this angst? I think we can see that our junior class has underachieved significantly compared to expectations. Tubby Smith must certainly get some of the blame for that - he recruited Morris, Crawford and Rondo and is responsible for developing their skills. Funny thing is, their skills aren't really in dispute - it is their heart. But then again, the senior class of North Carolina two years removed underachieved even more. Some will say that replacing Dougherty with Williams was the solution, but was it really? We will never know.
When it comes right down to it, and we look at the Flordia game in toto, the only thing that really went wrong was shooting. This is an occasional bane of all teams, but the very best find a way to fight through bad shooting days most of the time. I think arguably that explains why we failed - we simply aren't among the very best now.
Will we be before season's end? I have no idea. But I do know this - UK currently lacks an on-court leader with a true understanding of what leadership really means. Leadership isn't wanting to take a shot when the game is on the line, it is knowing what to do when the game is on the line. It isn't acting brave and cocky and confident in the face of adversity, it is having the ability to instill in your teammates a sense of confidence and purpose, not just in your ability to get the job done, but in their ability to get the job done.
Right now, Ramel Bradley is only 50% of a leader. He has confidence, but only in himself. He does not believe in his teammates, and they can sense this. That's why the ball is always firmly in his hands at the end of every close game, and why he only trusts himself to get the job done. That isn't leadership - it's hubris, and it looks suspiciously like Rajon Rondo last year.
Until we find a leader for this team, or Ramel begins to understand what leadership really means, we will fail more often than not when lesser teams with true leadership would prevail. I think Smith deserves some blame for being unable to demonstrate real leadership to Bradley, or being unwilling to force him to accept the leadership of someone more qualified (assuming such a person exists). Tubby has made very few hard choices this season, and his failure to do so is a failure of his own leadership. Teams are a reflection of their coach - if he won't make hard choices, they won't either.
Smith needs to do better. So does Bradley. So does the rest of the team when it comes to accepting leadership and coaching. Randolph Morris needs to discover his inner Marquis Estil. Joe Crawford must find a way to play the way Smith wants him to play, and stop being so distracted by every passing influence. Bobby Perry must stop being such a sissy, and hit somebody out there - I don't mean nasty fouls, I mean taking the ball to the basket with bad intentions.
I think I'm engaging in wishful thinking, but this is basketball and not my career. I can afford it. So can all UK fans. It's time we admit that and stop treating this like life or death. But we should continue to demand more, especially when we now know the ability is there. So should Smith.
It's the recruiting...
I still disagree about the '98 team, I think Tubby did an outstanding job that tourney. And those 2003-2005 teams that won more games than any other program, again a rare feat. Kudos to Tubby.
However (and this is where we are in sync), I don't understand why we have to HOPE Patrick Patterson comes here. Why UK is so elite-player starved, we have to resort to "finding lost faxes" (Morris) and "discovering transcript errors" (Jason Parker) and whatever you call the Joe Crawford "you better not transfer or we'll make you pay" business. We all knew Rashaad Carruth was trouble, but we put up with it, 'cause who else could've put 19 on Duke.
Am I making any sense here? Time (and laziness) prevent me from researching the above topics just to make sure I get my facts 100% right, but the implications are there: UK is desperate when it comes to attracting the truly elite recruits.
Lord knows we settle for three and two star recruits after the big boys have had their picks. But I thought that was just in football.
Actually ...
A red herring.
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You reached a conclusion...
The junior class is a problem. All three have issues as college basketball players, but that is true of every school in America to some extent. I believe it is true of ours to a greater extent than most of it's caliber.
Smith has a responsibility to lead the team and develop leadership within them. Either he is failing to do that because of his own insufficiency, or the deficiencies of the young men under his charge, or a combination of both. Given Smith's success in the past, I am inclined to completely discard #1, giving the young men the benefit of the doubt requires that I choose to discard #2. That leaves #3 as the most likely, and that's what I believe.
It is completely unfair to try to draw inferences about the past by excluding the successful teams. It is an unworthy and indefensible argument. Your criticism of his recruiting is more apt, although I am less concerned about "project 7 footers" than getting consistently good recruiting classes. The "lost" senior and sophomore classes are examples of my point.
Your comment about parity is simply unworthy of response. Anyone who follows college basketball knows better than this, so I'll assume you just haven't thought it through.
Will you please...
See JL's comment for the answer.
Where to begin?
I have only one response to your comment about the 1998 team - did not Roy Williams win the 2005 national championship with Matt Dougherty's players? I see no rush to tar him with the same brush you are so willing to slap Smith with.
Serious answer to your question: Ask the UK Board of Regents and the UK Athletic Administration. No, wait - the administration has already said that Smith can stay as long as he wants. Therefore, that leaves the BOR or the President of the University.
orlando
never go to a final 4 again
i even got banned from other boards
4-5 years ago when i predicited this
orlando and his big ego will be the downfall of UK basketball
I won't ban you ...
It's not somplicated.
I like differing views, but you'll have to provide reasons, proof, actual facts, not just opinion stated as fact.
I couldn't disagree with your post more. Welcome aboard.
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Not really sure ...
I think it's funny that somehow the argument every critic hangs his hat on is Final Fours. It's understandable, but the minute he makes ONE Final Four, what will be the next issue ... no titles?
I find it hard to believe that the complaining will go away, just the complaint.
Tubby has done a fine job with the program. Not extraordinary, but certainly far better than the blowhards would have you believe.
I think a change in staff is the first step. If that doesn't produce an uptick in talent and/or results, you can start talking about buyouts, etc, but honestly, the dude isn't going anywhere averaging 25-27 wins a season and making the second round of the tourney every year, even if that isn't up to the standards some people want.
Last thing I'll say about it is that the idea that our current program is "mediocre" sure flies in the face of fact. Last season was brutal for him and for us. It's not up to par. But acting like THAT was the norm is just convenient posturing.
- Mediocre is Duke's 5-6 ACC mark.
- Mediocre is UConn's attempt to get to the BIG EAST tournament.
- Mediocre is Louisville in the NIT
- Mediocre is Kansas losing two straight years in the first round.
- Mediocre is Michigan St. facing the NIT
- Mediocre is Indiana in the NIT under Mike Davis
So can it with the "mediocre" garbage. You're just riled up and looking for a fight. Admit that if Tubby Smith's UK team went tot he Final Four this year, miraculously, you'd just latch onto some other perceived problem, like style of play or his wardrobe.
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You misunderstand me
That's not an admission of my standards. Just a fact folks are refusing to get used to/resigned to.
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Not even Rick Pitino...
Let's face it, the job Ricky P. did at Ky from '89 to '97 was as rare as it was magical.
So magical, not even the man himself can duplicate it. Much to the dismay or Louisville fans. And to the delight of Big Blue Nation.
If Tubby followed Hall, if he followed Sutton, if he had followed anybody but the '90s Pitino, there would be no argument. Compare the successes head to head. Now consider how much harder the job is compared to two decades ago. And the fact that we no longer pay players.
Here I am again, apologizing for orlando. Sue me.
That...
I don't think that was an apology for Smith, either. The facts speak for themselves, but when one chooses to ignore the larger body of facts in favor of the ones who support their position, it certainly bears pointing out.
It never ends...
You are certainly entitled to set whatever standard you want for UK basketball, reasonable or otherwise. But you are not entitled to make up fiction and represent it as fact, such as the "Lexington media" crap. That is simple nonsense. What would you have them do, regurgitate the same LOD'r arguments that I see so often in your posts? Even the national media folks such as Gregg Doyell and others don't belabor the criticism, as you apparently wish they would.
I'll give you a solution - write to the local media and complain. Maybe they'll take you to heart.
What I've been wondering is...
Three or four years ago, UK would have won Saturday's game. They would have won because a role player would have stepped up and had a career night. Saying that there is a history of not winning the big game is a bit unfair. Yeah, the NCAA tourneys have been disappointing for quite awhile. But Tubby's teams have consistently won the big games during the regular season up until the last few years.
Tubby's never been a top tier recruiter. The playing style he espouses and the heavy handed discipline enforced by both him and the university will stop most top tier recruits in their tracks. But, Tubby's teams have not generally needed so many top players. Generally his teams have had one or two top players and a bunch of great role players that could take up the slack when someone like Prince didn't show up. I can't remember a Tubby team that won or loss based entirely on whether the top three players were on their game. I used to look forward to seeing which players Tubby would get to play well above their potential. Something has changed with the program and I'm not quite sure what it is.
by senowen on Feb 12, 2007 1:39 PM EST reply actions
This .. .
The Daniels-Fitch-Hayes types are limited on this team to one guy: Jodie Meeks. And he's a freshman.
I have to admit I kept waiting for him to bust out Saturday, but either he was wowed by the moment or just didn't have it.
Regardless, I agree with you.
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In not saying...
by senowen on Feb 12, 2007 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
Assistant Coaches
My dream
He is de facto Tubby replacement when Tubby decides to step away.
It's never going to happen, but I can dream.
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If there is one thing we can all take solace in
Sums it all up...
The problem that EVERY UK fan has right now is trying to reconcile clear facts vs our hearts. UK is still winning like it always has (always means extending back to before Pitino and after Rupp's great initial run when a title wasn't happening every 5 years), we dominate our conference most years. The record points to all of this. But it's not what our heart tells us; there we hear that we don't win the big games, we don't get mentioned in the same breath as some other programs recently, we appear "soft".
The hard part is that both answers are right if you're a UK fan. Fans that want to deny Tubby's success are not being objective; fans who want to give a pass for the failures are whistling past the graveyard. Fans who say Tubby hasn't done anything great obviously think that going undefeated in your conference and entering the tourney the #1 overall seed means nothing; fans who justify an Elite Eight loss to a team that we should have beaten are rationalizing. Fans who point to the last 8 years as evidence that UK isn't elite anymore obviously think the same thing of Indiana (1 Final Four, no titles in the past 8 years) or Kansas (2 Final Fours, no titles in the past 8 years); fans who want to say that not making the Final Four in 8 years doesn't hurt us should feel ill when they realize that in the past 8 years Duke and Carolina have passed us on the most Final Fours list. Recruits are coming out now who haven't seen UK in the Final Four since before they were playing for their middle-school team.
It's heart vs. head. We want the two to meet, and I think they will, but it is absolutely legitimate to ask how much longer Tubby gets to do it. I think it depends on two things: Their performance in the tournament this year and how many players+recruits come back next year. If we have another poor tournament then I think next year has to be spectacular. If he returns Morris et al, and the recruits are as good as we are told they should be, then so much more pressure.
What fans on Tubby's side have to realize is that he can't be given a pass indefinitely, there has to be an endgame. What fans who oppose Tubby have to realize is that by no objective measure has his performance justified that endgame happening this year. As good as we are supposed to think our next class is, and as good as our returning players should be, if we don't improve and look awesome next year then it is major decision time.
by Logan5 on Feb 12, 2007 5:18 PM EST reply actions
Senowen, I couldn't agree more...
And I appreciate the discussion in general. I appreciate the nuance in opinion at this blog. I tend to be a Tubby supporter, because I think he is a very good coach who has proven that he can wins lots of games here, as well as be a great representitve for Kentucky basketball. But to me things aren't perfectly rosy either; I also am tired of coming "so close" in big games against top teams, and of whiffing on top player after top player. Those two ideas--that Tubby CAN lead this program well, and yet things AREN'T where they should be right now--can coexist in a head without causing it to blow up. Opinions on everything, not just sports but politics, everything seem so polarized now. I think plenty of us fans out there manage to have this more nuanced, not so black and white view of things. But you rarely see this point of view represented in the reaches of UK basketball online fan-dom. So thanks : )
by blue kentucky girl on Feb 12, 2007 5:36 PM EST reply actions
I Concur
Instead, we talk about what we didn't do. Well, looking at the rankings, most analysts across the country still believe that UK is a threat come March, as indicated by us not dropping any spots in either poll. This team has the potential there to be very scary, and I just have to believe that at some point everything will click. If that happens, a Final Four is not out of the realm of possibility with a favorable draw.
Our defense is keeping us in games. The only thing left is allowing our offense to win the games.
Be careful with this ...
Take the good, yes. But don't start making 30 minutes a rallying point. We're too big for that.
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UK and Florida
It is not my post. I came across it on the Courier-Journal blogs.
Ever notice how a school claims a rivalry with UK whenever, during this or that decade, it meets with some success? Alabama became a rival in the late '80s. Arkansas became a rival in the early-mid '90's. Florida is now the rival. These things come and go.
There is only one constant over time. The school by which every other school in the SEC measures its success. It tells you something that anyone who manages a two- or three-game winning streak against UK becomes UK's rival.
Don't you think this rivalry business is more media invention than anything else? A newspaper's way to raise interest in a game, or ESPN's way of raising viewership during its invented Rivalry Week?
So who are the true rivals? Louisville, yes, though it was on life-support before Pitino arrived. Neighbors do make the best rivals. Indiana, not so much, even when Knight had a winning record against us. Notre Dame even less so. Not since Digger really. No team in the SEC has had more success against UK than has Tennessee (is that still true?). Maybe they feel more strongly about it than we do.
Duke? There is a mystique. On the short list of the best programs in the country, with Connecticut, North Carolina, UK, Arizona and Kansas, in no particular order (ahem). A game for the ages, but we don't play them enough to call it a rivalry.
Florida? For the time being, undoubtedly. Of course, they've been claiming preeminence in the SEC long before they won the crown. "If you want to win the SEC, you've got to go through us" crap. They surprised everyone last year in the tournament, and this year they deserve to crow about themselves (something they do oh so well). We'll see how long that lasts. If history is any guide, they'll regress to the mean. And join all the other rivals.
Great post ...
I'll have to admit to preferring the former tremendously.
Regardless, you're right about a lot of this and let's hope the Cats do indeed win.
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