The news around here is flying so thick and fast, I just can't keep up with it.  We have a new basketball commit from out of nowhere, Ken has a new interview up at Saturday soundoff, and now I am going to further burden your sports minds with an interview I did the other day (from the beaches of the Atlantic coast) with Todd of Roll Bama Roll.

If you have not been over to Roll Bama Roll, you really must check it out, and while you're at it, you can listen to the podcast below, or download it here.

It seems everyone, from the good folks in Las Vegas, to the local and national media, are picking against the 'Cats in their upcoming epic battle for the Governor's Cup.  I suppose I can understand why the knee-jerk reaction is to pick Louisville to win this years contest.  After-all, the game is being played at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium, and UK will be starting an unproven quarterback.  Add the fact that Kentucky lacks experience at the receiver slot, except for the talented Dicky Lyons, and one can reasonably assess the game as a U of L lean.  But if one analyzes the contest and a few key personnel a bit closer, a converse conclusion can easily be arrived upon.

I like Eric Crawford.  The Courier-Journal sports columnist is generally not dogmatic, that is, he backs up his opinions with some form of fact.  As is true with anyone who puts out opinions three or four times a week, I don't always agree with his assertions, but I don't always agree with any writer's opinions 100% of the time.  

This past Sunday Mr. Crawford penned a fairly even-handed column in which he put forth his prediction for the UK v. U of L game, along with his reasoning for reaching his final conclusion.  His logic seems to follow that of most of the national media, as well as some local media members, concerning the game and its possible outcome.  Because of this I am going to use his column, and his points, as the basis for my rebuttal to those who opine that U of L will come out victorious Sunday evening.

His assertions begin with an historical perspective:

"And the biggest one ( reason ) is the way UK historically has played in its season opener under Rick Brooks, which is to say, not at all well."

"Brooks has never beaten U of L in an opener.  But more than that, in four years of playing the Cardinals in the first game, his UK teams have managed just one first-quarter touchdown.  And they weren't facing blockbuster U of L defenses, either." 

 Well, that's a shocker.  In Brooks' first two years on the job UK went a combined 6 - 17.  Those teams were ... I'm being kind here ... terrible.  Of course they didn't play well in the first game, they didn't play well in ANY game.  But, in Brooks third season UK went 3 - 8, and almost managed to upset the Cards, losing only 31 - 24.  If not for an Andre' Woodson fumble on the U of L two yard line, that game could have very easily swung the other way. 

There is no denying that Louisville has had, previous to last season, a far superior team over the last several years.  Using UK's poor performances in some of those games as a yardstick by which to measure this years game is flawed logic.  Actually it's not flawed logic, the assertion lacks logic altogether.  One has nothing whatsoever to do with the other.

He next confronts the all important ground game:

"For eight straight years, the winning team's top rusher out-gained the entire opposing team.  Rafael Little did that last year."

"Because both teams figure to use multiple backs, that streak might be in jeopardy.  But let's say that UK's defensive line -- it best unit -- stuffs the U of L run.  Now the Wildcats are free to try to control things with their own running game, something their talented backfield is capable of doing.  But they can do that only if they can keep U of L honest through the air, and that's a shaky proposition."

 "Because both teams figure to use multiple backs, that streak might be in jeopardy."  -- I admit, I'm not sure what that means.  He seems to be implying that UK will win the rushing battle, but it won't matter because Kentucky will be using more than one running back.  Again, illogical at best.  One would think that because Kentucky has a stable of thoroughbreds that that would mean fresher legs for a longer period of time.  Most importantly the fourth quarter, where many a game is won or lost.

Can UK keep Louisville's defense honest through the air?  Finally, a legitimate point from Mr. Crawford.

Considering U of L returns eight starters from last years porous defense, I think it's fair to evaluate the job they did last year pressuring the passer: Last season Louisville recorded 17 sacks in 12 games, to go along with seven interceptions ( they also allowed 25 touchdown passes, and 251 yards per game through the air ).  Not fear inspiring numbers, even if Mike Hartline has yet to start a single college game.  UK's experienced offensive line figures to be inundated with blitz's and stunts all day long, and their ability to handle the Cards pass rushers ( U of L will be starting three new linebackers ) will go a long way in determining how effective Hartline is in the vertical game.

To offset Hartline's inexperience I'm sure Rich Brooks and Joker Phillips will utilize the pass catching abilities of the running backs.  Tony Dixon, Alfonso Smith, and Derrick Locke should prove to be valuable 'relief valves' for a pressured Hartline.  Getting those guys loose in the secondary is of vital importance to UK's offensive attack, but if U of L proves quick to cover and swarm ( which they didn't do last year ) then Kentucky's offense could become one dimensional.  Which of course would be problematic for the boys in blue.

Kentucky's inexperienced receiving corps is the wild card in this game, as far as the 'Cats are concerned.  Hartline will be relying on receivers Dicky Lyons, Kyrus Lanxter, E.J. Adams, Eric Adeyemi, Eugene McCaskill, and Matt Roark to run the right routes, and make the catch.  Tight end Maurice Grinter will also be relied upon to make a few catches.  Grinter, who is a terrific athlete, has very soft hands and has demonstrated an ability to catch, and then make yards after the catch with his speed, and willingness to plow through defenders.  Back-up tight end T. C. Drake has only one career catch ( for a TD ), but will also be an important target for Hartline to aim for. 

Is hoping for UK's passing game to keep the defense honest through the air too much to ask for?  Not if the receivers are asked to run intermediate routes of 15 - 20 yards.  Hartline's accuracy with the deep ball is shaky at this point, but he can make the nice throw over the middle.  Couple that with the running backs catching balls in the flat, and Kentucky's passing game should be adequate.

So to answer Mr. Crawford's question, yes, I feel that Kentucky's passing game will be strong enough to open up the running lanes for the trio of stud backs ( quartet if one includes Moncell Allen ).  If U of L stacks eight men in the box in an attempt to stuff the run, they'll pay the price all day long.

Crawford then moves to Hunter Cantwell:

"The Cardinals, meanwhile, have one thing in the game that might be most important, experience at quarterback."

Louisville does boast a more experienced signal-caller.  The former walk-on and Paducah Tilghman grad, when called upon, has played well for the Cards over the last three years. My concern though, if I were a U of L fan, is who he has played against.

His career stats look like this: 92 - 157 for 1,419 yards, with 10 touchdowns, and seven interceptions.  He has four career starts.

Cantwell's finest hour came in Louisville's '05 Gator Bowl loss to Virginia Tech.  He threw for 216 yards and three touchdowns, earning game Co-MVP honors.  But other than that game, Cantwell's numbers have been achieved against less-than-stellar competition:

• 2005 versus a 5 - 6 UConn team: 16 - 25 for 271 yards and one touchdown.
• 2006 versus a 7 - 6 Kansas State team: 18 - 26 for 173 yards, one touchdown and one interception.
• 2006 versus a 7 - 6 Middle Tennessee State team: 17 - 32 for 340 yards, one touchdown and one interception. 

Those three games account for over half of Cantwell's career yardage ( 784 of 1,419 yards ). 

In all of those games he also had either Mike Bush ( UConn ),  Mario Urrutia ( all three ), Harry Douglas ( all three ), Kolby Smith ( K-State and MTSU ), or Joshua Tinch ( UConn ) running for him, or catching his passes.  This year he has no such weapons available.  With the dismissal of receiver JaJuan Spillman, the near tragic shooting of receiver Trent Guy ( he will probably play at some point this year ), and the broken foot of receiver Scott Long, Cantwell is left with zero receivers who have caught a pass in a college game ( and you thought UK had wide-out issues ).

I think Cantwell is a fine quarterback, but his accomplishments need to be put into perspective.

Crawford wraps up his analysis with this:

"UK has the better defense, and probably the better running game.  It should also have a special-teams advantage.  And unlike in past years, the speed factor is beginning to turn in UK's favor."

"But U of L has Cantwell, home field and perhaps more urgency, certainly more pressure to win."

"UK has ... probably the better running game." -- I nominate Eric for the 'Understatement of the Year Pulitzer'.  PROBABLY, he's right. 

Although U of L does boast Brock Bolen at running back ( 456 career yards and a 5.2 yards per carry average ), Kentucky's abundance of talented backs should prove to be a huge advantage, especially if the game is tight in the fourth quarter ( which I think it will be ).

Basically Crawford, as well as many others, are basing their prognostications on Cantwell's abilities, and U of L's "pressure to win."  The whole "pressure to win" contention is a bogus argument; I bet Ohio State felt "pressure to win" the last two national championship games, but they were disemboweled in both.  In my view, one reaches for "pressure to win" when one has no other bullets.  

If one notices, Crawford only mentions UK's defense as an afterthought.  That is a monumental mistake, in my opinion.  With UK's defensive line and linebackers pressuring Cantwell, and UK's superb secondary covering the inexperienced U of L receivers, I feel that Kentucky's defense will be the difference maker in this game.  Keep in mind,  it's difficult to throw from ones backside, and it's hard to throw to blanketed receivers. 

I can see only two areas where Louisville will have the advantage Sunday: at quarterback, and having home field advantage.  But remember, the quarterback advantage may be offset by UK's defensive pressure, and U of L's lack of any experience at the receiver spot.  There's not a lot Rich Brooks can do about the home field advantage.  But, knowing U of L fans proclivity to run for the exits when things seem bleak, if UK can race to a lead, the home field may be rendered moot.

Crawford ends with a prediction: 31 - 21, Louisville.  He offers up a disclaimer, though:

"But I make that pick with all of the confidence I have in my lottery numbers."

I agree.  Rivalry games, especially early season rivalry games, can be very unpredictable, and with the profusion of question marks masquerading as players, this years contest is laborious to handicap. 

My prediction?  Well, that's gonna have to wait until Friday.

Thanks for reading, 'Believe in Blue', and BEAT LOUISVILLE!

Well, once again I find myself in the heart of ACC territory in the Palmetto State.  Of course, there is one good SEC school nearby in South Carolina, but just off to my southwest and northeast lie Clemson, UNC and of course, Duke, and even though I am technically in South Carolina, North Carolina is just a stone's throw away.

Being here is always nice, but sometimes those nice, fancy wireless technologies can work less perfectly than they should.  But I am now back online and should be for the duration of my reconnoiter down here on the Atlantic coast.  Now, to Wildcat business.

The good news, which I am sure most of you have heard by now, is that the Kentucky offense scrimmaged against the defense on Saturday, and the result was much more competitive.  Both Hartline and Cobb were said to have done some good things in the backfield, and the offensive line was apparently much more aggressive and cohesive, particularly in the running game.  Overall, this scrimmage was seen as a definite step forward for the offense, but there are rumblings of players taking plays off.  Even in the heat of mid-August, the coaching staff is not going to take kindly to that.

There is still some concern about the receivers and how they are performing, including unpleasant news of dropped balls, poor routes, missed blocking schemes and just general greenness.  Concerns or no, the time has come to prepare for the Louisville Cardinals this week in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium.  From now on, there is no margin for error.  We need to get healthy, focused and prepared for what is to come next Sunday.

So now, it's time to check up on both UK and Kentucky to see what the state of play is.  Mike at Card Chronicle reports on the unfortunate loss of senior middle linebacker Mozell Axson for the season due to a medial collateral ligament tear.  Mike wants to know if practice is just a little to rough in the 'Ville:

Quick question: are we using knives in these non-contact drills? Because if so, it's sort of defeating the purpose.

Ouch.  This is at least the second significant injury in the last week or so with their best returning receiver, Scott Long, being out indefinitely due to a fracture.  I said before and I'll say again, I want both teams healthy.  I don't want to hear "If only's" from them, and I know they don't want to hear them from us.

Kentucky isn't exactly a picture of health, but we have not been as unfortunate lately as Louisville.  Several Wildcats are dinged up with minor, "owies,"  as Rich Brooks likes to call them, but knock wood, nothing serious so far.

Chip Crosby has this piece today in the Herald-Leader noting how Louisville natives have fueled the resurgence of Kentucky.  I think we can all thank Bobby Petrino for this, as I think the gave short shrift to many of the local folks.  Most of you remember the revocation of Brad Durham's scholarship offer by Petrino when he found someone he thought was better at the position (How did that work out for them, by the way?  Think maybe they would like to have Durham this year?)  It was that type of ethical relativism and general disrespect for local talent that has been a boon to Kentucky.  In fact, from 2004 to 2007, Petrino only signed 3 more players from Louisville than Kentucky did (10 vs. 7).  I think that to some extent, Petrino was seen as a guy who would rather take a low 4-star from elsewhere than a high 3-star from near home.

Whatever the case, there is no doubt that Louisville is playing a huge role in the resurgence of Kentucky football.  Even if Louisville wins the game this year, it is likely that unless the wheels fall off, Kentucky will still be seen as a team on the rise, and Louisville as a program that is at best treading water unless the Cards pull off an unexpectedly strong season.  Either way, UK has never been stronger in the city of Louisville, and that trend has helped us enormously.

Kenny Colston at UK Wildcat Country debunks some myths for us about UK's season, and the Louisville "myth"seems relevant:

1. Louisville's experience at quarterback will be enough for the team coast to a 6-6 or 7-5 season.

Verdict: Total bull. Listen here Louisville fans, have many teams have you seen with a good quarterback, and Cantwell is good but not great, will his team to victory? Sure, you have a 6'8 receiver who will be hung out to dry some many times he won't have ribs. Your best returning WR has a bullet in his back. And you're running game isn't THAT great. Your defense won't put you in the best field position. Sorry folks, this pre-season myth is bull.

Well, I myself have never heard this argument put forward, but then again, I'm sure Kenny has to listen to more U of L fans in person than I do.  But either way, he's right -- Cantwell seems to be a solid quarterback, but Louisville is notoriously short of pass catchers, and last time I checked, a completed pass required a receiver as well as a passer.  In addition, I don't think all that much of the Big East, but it is a tough enough conference that nobody can just "coast by"on the services of a strong-armed quarterback.

I think that's enough for now, but if my sketchy Internet connection will cooperate, you'll be hearing from me frequently from deep in ACC country.  And a big "Thank You" goes out to Ken for not letting tumbleweeds roll through this place while I was incommunicado.

I thought I should add a few comments, as well as link a few comments, to the decision by Scout 5-star and Rivals 3-star quarterback Morgan Newton out of Carmel, Indiana to matriculate to Kentucky.

Obviously, it is great news when we get guys as highly ranked as Morgan Newton and Ryan Mossakowski.  Kentucky has always had trouble luring top talent to Lexington, which is one of the reasons why we have suffered through such futility as a program in the premiere college football conference.  To win in the SEC, you have to have two things -- talent, and depth.  In recent history, Kentucky has had neither.

But the last three recruiting classes have seen us beat out the top tier schools more and more often for quality recruits, and the end result of that is a dramatically improved base of talent from which to create a team, and increased quality depth backing them up.  Newton and Mossakowski will provide the foundation for our quarterback for many years to come, and who knows who will win the battle for that spot.  But the good news is, we have suddenly gone from looking like we would see a gradual progression of average quarterbacks to the likelihood of two studs in a couple of years.

Neither Newton or Mossakowski represent a panacea or an announcement that we are ready to contend for the SEC crown -- we aren't.  But it does serve notice to the league that Kentucky will no longer be a doormat, and with the talent level now coming to play in front of the Commonwealth Stadium crowd on Saturdays, the days of marking down UK as a likely win have now evaporated.

It is a long, tough slog to relevance in the SEC.  Kentucky isn't there yet, and it will take many more consecutive years of good football to get there.  But by the same token, no longer are the Wildcats uncompetitive with the rest of the league.  I believe us to be present at the birth of a new football tradition at the University of Kentucky, the likes of which haven't been seen since The Bear prowled the sidelines.  We still have a long, hard road fraught with pitfalls and difficulties, but as recruiting continues to move in the right direction and we continue to accumulate quality depth, the toughest conference in America just got a little tougher.

Some links to click on the Newton decision:

• Morgan Newton Far From Bullshit (Over the Pylon)
• Thank you Louisville (Chris Diggs, C-J)
• Morgan Newton makes a lovely decision (Matt Jones, KSR)
• Taking a cut -- Newton a huge get for the Cats (LEX-18)
• Just another program-changer in the fold (UK Wildcat Country)
• Morgan Newton chooses ... Kentucky! (4th and Blue)
• Continuity counts, as UK gets Newton (John Clay, Sidelines)

Congratulations to coach Brooks and his staff, and to Morgan Newton for picking an SEC program on the rise.

You can find the overall poll over at Garnet and Black Attack.  If you want a list of bloggers who are contributing to the Power Poll this year, you can find them down on the left sidebar near the bottom, or at SECPowerPoll.com.

My overall comments are these:

• I still think Miles deserved to be in the top two based on his body of work.  I don't hate Meyer as the #1 pick, though.
• #5 is too high for Spurrier given his body of work at South Carolina.  Just sayin'.
• I don't see how you can put Croom above Brooks.  But there you go.
• Bobby Johnson has everyone's sympathy.
• Rich Brooks beats out only Johnson.  His status as the crusty curmudgeon of the SEC (deserved) and general disrespect for Kentucky around the league (hard to say that is undeserved, based on history) had more to do with that than his actual record or accomplishments.

The SEC Power Poll will return every week of the college football season, only from now on, we will be talking about the teams.

This is the final installment of a series of posts breaking down the '08 football 'Cats.  I hope you have found the overviews informative, and entertaining to read.  Today we break down the quarterbacks.

Kentucky football fans have been spoiled recently with great quarterback play, but with the matriculation of André Woodson to the NFL, it's time to welcome a new starter, and an intriguing group of back-ups.  Expectations for this group of quarterbacks varies, depending on who one talks to, but if one listens to Rich Brooks and Joker Phillips the impression given is one of anticipated excellence at the position.  Of course, time will tell us whether that anticipation is warranted, or if Brooks and Phillips are being exorbitant in their hope.

Actually, having high expectations is a crucial part of coaching.  Demanding a strong work ethic, and demanding results through ones coaching is the only way to build and develop greatness.  Although greatness may not be immediately apparent to the untrained eye, a coaches ability to recognize players who aspire to be extraordinary, and can back up their aspirations with talent, desire, and an unparalleled work ethic, is the key to building what Kentucky football fans have been waiting patiently on for decades; a consistent winner.  If the coaches don't expect greatness you can bet your season tickets the players won't either.

UK's quarterback coach Randy Sanders is about to find out why Kentucky is paying him so handsomely.  Sanders has received kudos from every direction for his work with Woodson, but he's about to find out that "the mail never stops."  He's been given the keys to more than a few fixer-uppers on Kentucky's roster this year, and his mechanic skills are being put through the paces.  Can he produce a Cadillac, can he demand a Cadillac?  The prospects are as follows:

The Presumptive Starter 

Mike Hartline 6'6", 204 lb sophomore --  Hartline has appeared in four games for UK, going 4 for 6, for 34 yards and one interception.  The Canton, Ohio native came to UK with an impressive resume'; his senior year in high school Hartline threw for 1,523 yards and six touchdowns, while rushing for 533 yards and 12 more touchdowns.  His junior year he threw for 2,405 yards and 16 touchdowns, while rushing for 353 yards and eight touchdowns.  He was named an All-America by PrepStar, and rated the #31 pro-style quarterback by Rivals.  He was also rated one of the top-40 prospects in the state of Ohio.  SuperPrep rated him one of the top-125 prospects in the six state Midwest area.  In his senior year Hartline participated in the state championship finals in the 300 meter hurdles, high jump, and 4x400 relay.  Hartline's brother, Brian, is a receiver at Ohio State ( we won't hold that against him ).

Hartline brings size, athleticism, and mobility to the quarterback position.  He also brings a terrific attitude about what is expected from him from a leadership standpoint:

"Personally trying to get one-on-one time with the guys and make it seem like more than football.  Creating friendships and making it comfortable for the new guys to come in.  For the older guys, making it seem like I want to be here and I want to be the guy who wants to run the show this year.  The older guys want to see confidence, and that is the one big thing that I'm trying to show.  I think I do have confidence.  I think I have a lot of it and I'm only going to continue to build on it.  Now I'm trying to build on trust, being on time, reliability, working with people and not being afraid to put in some extra time."

At this point Hartline's effectiveness at the collegiate level is a mystery.  He certainly has the physical tools to be a great college quarterback, but learning "on-the-job" is a difficult prospect, especially in the SEC.  His ability to mentally deal with setbacks will go a long way in determining his long-term success, but he certainly talks a good game, and he'll be given every opportunity to succeed.

Coach Brooks is optimistic about Hartline's development, so my optimism is also high for Hartline being successful:

"He's a tough guy.  He's mobile.  For the most part he makes really good decisions.  That hopefully will continue to improve with more reps.  I look forward to him to continue developing his accuracy, particularly on the deep ball."

The Back-ups

Will Fidler 6'4", 216 lb sophomore -- The Henderson County graduate played very well in the spring; he found the mark on a 52 yard touchdown pass to E.J. Adams in a spring scrimmage, and in the Blue-White game he found Dicky Lyons for a 57 yard touchdown.  He has played in one varsity game ( Kent St. ).  Fidler also came to UK a very heralded prospect; he was named an All-America by PrepStar.  He is a two-time winner ( junior and senior years ) of the Roy Kidd Award, which is given to the Class 4A Player of the Year in Kentucky.  He is fourth all-time in Kentucky high school history with 9,395 yards passing yards.  He also threw for 92 touchdowns in his illustrious high school career.  His senior year Fidler threw for 2,288 yards and 25 touchdowns.  American Football Monthly named him Kentucky's Player of the Year in his junior year after he threw for 4,050 yards and 45 touchdowns.  He was rated a top-25 pro-style quarterback by Rivals.  Rivals also rated him the #8 prospect in the state of Kentucky.  SuperPep rated him the #11 prospect in Kentucky.  Fidler's uncle, George Petitgout, played football at Penn St., and his cousin Luke Petitgout played at Notre Dame ( he currently plays in the NFL for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ).  His three brothers played football at Southern Illinois, with one of those brothers also playing at Alabama ( again, we won't hold that against him ).

Fidler has a strong arm, and as I stated above, he played well in the spring, but he hasn't come close to unseating Hartline as the starter.  It is good, though, to have a competent back-up who is physically able to perform the job.  I suspect he may see some action this year, especially in the early part of the season, which will serve as valuable experience as he goes forward.

Randall Cobb 5'11", 185 lb freshman -- Cobb was Tennessee's Class 2A Mr. Football.  He also won two consecutive state titles as quarterback of Alcoa High School.  As a senior he completed 89 of 139 passes ( 64% ) for 1,765 yards and 22 touchdowns ( he only threw two interceptions ), he also rushed for 793 yards and 13 touchdowns.  His junior year he threw for 1,893 yards and 25 touchdowns.  He was rated a top-11 prospect in Tennessee by the Orlando Sentinel, and a top-20 prospect by Rivals.  He competed in the 100 and 200 meters, as well as the 4x100 and 4x200 relays in high school.  He finished third in the state his senior year in the 100 meters ( 10.75 seconds ).  He's been clocked at 21.89 seconds in the 200 meters ( now that's sustained speed ).  Cobb was a high school teammate of UK receiver Kyrus Lanxter. 

Coming into fall practice Cobb was considered by most to be a sure bet to play receiver this year, but he won Brooks over early as a quarterback prospect.  After Cobb's first full gear practice the head coach had this to say about the superb athlete:

"He didn't look flustered; he stood in there and made the good throws, made a run or two ... He looked very good."

Since that time Cobb has spent 90% of his time practicing at the quarterback position, which can be looked at as being both good, and bad; considering how thin UK is at the receiver spot, having an athlete of his extreme talent would certainly bolster that position, but when ones performance dictates a look at the quarterback position, Brooks, Phillips, and Sanders have no choice.

The buzz is that Cobb is a once in a millennium type of player who will see lots of game action.  Where on the field will he line up?  At this point we don't know, but we do know that he is an extraordinary athlete who Brooks can't afford to let sit.  He has already been announced as the back-up return man ( to Dicky Lyons ), and Brooks has recently stated that Cobb would be a nice change of pace at the quarterback spot if Hartline isn't "moving the team".

Take that Phil!

The Other Freshman 

DeAunte Mason 6'3", 215 lbs -- Mason was Tennessee's Class 3A Mr. Football.  The Pearl-Cohn product passed for 2,375 yards and rushed for 1,052 more, scoring a combined 35 touchdowns.  As a junior he threw for almost 2,000 yards and 19 touchdowns, while rushing for 906 yards and 15 touchdowns.  He was the Nashville Metro Player of the Year.  He was rated a top-20 prospect in Tennessee by Rivals.  Mason is also a track star; he was part of the 4x200 relay team which won the state championship his junior year.

Another superb athlete.  If injuries become an issue at quarterback, Mason may see some playing time, if not, I would expect that he will redshirt this year.  A future position switch is also a possiblity.

Matt Roark 6'6", 190 lbs -- Roark was a two-time Cobb County ( GA ) Player of the Year.  He didn't begin playing quarterback until early in his junior year, but he immediately excelled at the position.  In his 18 career quarterback starts he ran and passed for a combined 54 touchdowns.  He senior year he completed 72.1% of his passes ( 98 - 136 ), for 1,552 yards and 15 touchdowns.  He rushed for 1,010 yards and 12 touchdowns.  Roark was born in Lexington, and his father Ray Gover played at UK from '85-'88. Puzzling fact: According to the UK Media Guide his last named is pronounced "RO - ark", but the Herald-Leader states that his name is pronounced "RORK". 

Roark continues the recent trend of recruiting dual-threat quarterbacks.  As with Mason, unless injuries become an issue, I would think that he will redshirt this year.  As with Mason, a position switch is possible ( even likely for Roark ), to receiver

Final Analysis

Only a month ago my hope was for the quarterback position to not hurt UK's chance at victory; don't turn the ball over, make accurate short passes, with the occasional deep ball to keep the defense honest.  With experience in short supply, expecting more would be expecting too much, or so I thought. 

When it was suggested to Joker Phillips by an unknowing reporter that Mike Hartline couldn't be expected to run the offense like André Woodson, Joker's response shook me into his world of "demanding greatness":

"I do expect him to run it like André.  We've got to put those expectations on him.  You don't say that a kid can't do something.  We're doing the exact same thing in practice that we were doing when André was here.  We haven't tweaked our offense because we've go a new quarterback.  We're running the same plays.  We expect him to make all the throws, and so far he's done it.  He's been as sharp as I've ever seen him the first few days of practice."

Joker imposing his will; that's how one coaches greatness into a player. 

Of course, effecting the ability of the quarterback to be his best are his receivers, and UK has a serious lack of experience at wide-out.  But, if Brooks and Phillip's attitude toward the quarterback growth arc is any indication, I expect that the receiving corps will be on the receiving end of high expectations also; no excuses, not even youth.  If a coach expects and demands greatness from one group of players, it only stands to reason that they will expect the same from another group cursed with the same affliction; inexperience.

Mike Hartline seems to be shrugging off youth, and embracing the challenge.  When asked about being ready for the Louisville game, he had this to say:

"I need to worry about myself getting mentally ready for this game and acting like I have been in this position before.  I need to make it seem like I'm not a rookie and never played, I need to get my mind right to where it is just natural."

He sounds like a young man who is buying what Brooks and the staff are selling.

Will demanding greatness, result in greatness?  I expect time needs to be given in order to accurately answer that query.  

My advice; continue to believe.

Trivia Question 

Which former UK quarterback holds the record for the most rushing yards in a single season by a quarterback?

Thanks for reading, and Go 'Cats!

For the first installment of the SEC Power Poll this year, we have been asked to rank the SEC football coaches.  After having seen several highly subjective and, in my view, questionable coaching rankings, I thought I would attempt to create a somewhat more objective ranking with a subjective component.  So here is how I scored it:

• I took the average number of victories against BCS schools for each coach during the most recent 5-year period.  A coach was awarded 1 point per victory.  I also included their previous gig if they were head coach at a college, but only BCS victories were included, which is one reason why Petrino's is so low.
  
• Each coach who has won a national championship inside the last 5 years gets 5 points.  If he won a national championship outside the 5-year window, he gets 3.
• 2 points for each SEC championship.
• 1 point for each divisional championship.
• 2 points for each BCS bowl bid.
• 1 point for each non-BCS bowl bid.
• Up to 5 "feel good" points.  This is the subjective part.  If I feel a coach is beloved of his fan base and has the team obviously moving in the right direction, he gets 5, and I worked back from there.

OK, so given all that, the calculations come out as follows:

You see some significant variation in "Feel Good" points, which I will now attempt to explain:

• Miles -- Got 4 only because there has been restlessness in Baton Rouge despite his success there.  Hard to understand, but there it is.
• Meyer, Saban, Richt -- What can I say?  All their fans love them, and they are fine coaches.  Of the three, I'd say Saban is the most vulnerable to a bad season this year, but Alabama is going to give him some time.  It's easy to see why by looking at his objective points.
• Tuberville -- you always get the impression that Auburn is looking for the BBD (bigger, better deal).  There is still some bad blood there for the debacle back in 2003 when Auburn interviewed Petrino behind Tubby's back.
• Fulmer -- I don't think I need to explain this.  Some UT fans would love to boot Fulmer even now, but are kind of forced to shut up because UT won the East last year.  But dissatisfaction can be heard bubbling down in Knoxville to any but the seriously hearing-impaired.
• Spurrier -- The Evil Genius has been far from spectacular in Columbia, and one more below average year will bring the frustration to the surface.
• Petrino -- I loathe Petrino, and this is how I treat people I despise.  I did say this part was subjective.  Besides that, no way I can place him above Spurrier.  Subjectively, Spurrier is a better coach, and if any of his Florida years could be included, it wouldn't be close.
  
• Brooks. Croom, Johnson -- Of these, only Croom is really vulnerable at the moment.  MSU is OK with current progress, but if Croom moves backwards at all this year, dissatisfaction will start to bubble up.  Johnson is invulnerable -- he has done a great job with what he has to work with.  Brooks, right now, is in the same situation.
• Houston Nutt -- Nutt could not have a better last name -- the guy is a little daffy.  He's a pretty good coach, but Ole Miss is sick and fed up with being a doormat.  They have an actual history of good football as recently as 2003, and their patience with Nutt is likely to be limited.  Nutt's Arkansas experience will be merrilly dug up by his detractors if he falters.
  

So there we go -- my attempt to quantify the quality of each coach without completely removing my own perception of their place within the SEC and their own fan base.

Joel at Rocky Top Talk has also attempted a more objective ranking system.  Unlike mine, which looks only at the last 5 years and only at BCS team victories, Joel includes the entire history of the coaches.

I point this out not to disagree with Joel, but to take the opportunity to compare a broad, historical view with a "last 5 years" view.  Here is how that looks on a chart:

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to make some right-way, wrong-way conclusions on this one.

Despite the unwelcome news over the weekend that Kentucky's offense did not play well in the scrimmage, time marches inexorably onward toward the start of the 2008 season and our biggest rival, the Louisville Cardinals.

We know how the 'Cats did from numerous reports.  The Cards had a scrimmage last Thursday -- how did that work out for them?  Well, since Louisville fans don't seem to know much, I can't tell you much, either.  But the few details we do have are these:

• The Cardinal offense scored on the defense. [ed. note -- so did everyone last year -- a lot.  This tells us nothing.]
• Hunter Cantwell threw four touchdown passes [ed. note -- that makes sense -- he is the starting quarterback.]
• Scott Long caught three of the TD passes.
• Woodny Turrene (CB) was a defensive standout.
• An undisclosed player (allegedly Bilal Powell (RB)) did something allegedly awesome -- and also undisclosed.

I don't know about you, but compared to Kentucky's "closed" practice, the Louisville scrimmage looks virtually top secret.  We only have rumors of rumors and not much else.  I'm not being critical here, closed practices are, well, closed, and the security on information over there is pretty impressive.

Still, I guess we can draw the conclusion that the Louisville offense performed better than UK's.  I think it's also reasonable to conclude that their defense did not perform as well as UK's relatively speaking, but what we do not know is those all-important details.  So what seems to be emerging out of both practices (although this is quite a stretch on my part, especially considering the tight-lipped nature of the Cardinal scrimmage) is that the Louisville offense is better, at this point, than the Kentucky offense, and that the UK defense is better, at this point, than the Louisville defense.

This is really about what we would expect.  Louisville returns a quarterback that is much more battle-tested than Hartline, and is a pretty darn good quarterback to begin with.  Kentucky is struggling a bit more on offense, but our defense was very impressive -- just how impressive is hard to know due to the struggles of the offense, but judging by Brooks' comments, it sounds like we may have just what we thought we'd have -- the best defense at Kentucky in years.

I would guess that Louisville has as many concerns overall as Kentucky at this point, they are just happening on different sides of the football.  Does this give us a clue about how the Governor's Cup game will be?  Sure.  At this point it looks like a radical departure from recent years, and I would expect a low-scoring affair, as usually is the case when two teams' strengths lie on opposite sides of the football -- one team can't score because of the defense, and the other can't score because of execution.  Whoever overcomes their weakness the best or exerts their strength most forcefully will likely win.

Some other articles of interest:

Kentucky

• UK line is slow out of the blocks (Courier-Journal)
• The day after (The Cats Pause -- free)
• Cats cancel practice (Bret Dawson, C-J)
• A little worried? (Chris Diggs, C-J)
• Rich Brooks keeping Kentucky in the SEC mix (Memphis Commercial-Appeal)
• UK offense just as bad the second time around (John Clay, LHL)
• Micah Johnson ready for a big year (Chip Crosby, LHL)
• Brooks evaluates first scrimmage (WYMT)
• Reasons not to panic (4th and Blue)
• Marmaduke's Monday news and views (Kentucky Sports Radio)

Louisville

• Here's the catch: not many catches (Courier-Journal)
• The center with attention (Courier-Journal)
• More on receivers (C.L. Brown, C-J)

Reality.  It's that thing that pours cold water over fan excitement, the Yang to the Yin of high expectations.  Reality is like an unexpected weekend visit from an offensive cousin or annoying mother-in-law.  Reality bites, and yesterday, it bit the Wildcats.

From all the reports I have read (subscription), the Kentucky defense utterly dominated the offense in yesterday's scrimmage.  It was so complete that the coaches had not one bit of praise for anybody on the offense -- first team, second team, "not nobody, not nohow."

Here is a quick and dirty look at the various components:

• Offensive line -- Not awful on the edge, but completely unacceptable in the middle.  Pass blocking was poor, and Hartline was harried and harassed all day by the defensive line.  Corey Peters was said to have built a small vacation residence in the offensive backfield.
• Running game -- Derrick Locke and Moncell Allen sat out the scrimmage with minor injuries.  Brooks had little to say good or bad about the backs, except to point out essentially that running the football without an offensive line to block for you is really, really hard.
• Passing game -- According to this report from Matt Jones, the wide receivers were nowhere to be found except for Lyons.  We knew this would be a questionable position this year, and despite all the good stuff we were hearing during drills, they are simply not ready when the rubber meets the road.  It also hurt that Hartline is suffering from a sore shoulder from throwing so many balls.  Apparently, that effected his efforts yesterday.  When it was Cobb's turn, he pretty much reminded everyone that he is just a freshman.
• Kicking game -- Brooks was not at all pleased with the kicking game.  Tim Mastay did not punt the ball particularly well, and Lones Seiber missed a chip-shot field goal that even the 52-yarder he made could not make up for in the eyes of the coach.
• Injury update -- Redshirt defensive end Greg Meisner will be out indefinitely due to a torn labrum in his shoulder which will require surgery (the same injury that kept him out last year, only to the other shoulder).

Apparently, the combination of poor offense and domination by the defense made this scrimmage a difficult one to evaluate.  With minor injuries dogging some critical players on both sides of the ball, Joker Phillips said that there is absolutely no reason to tinker with the depth chart at all at this point, except as a motivational tool.  But needless to say, Steve Brown and Rich Brooks were pleased with what they saw from the defense, especially from Corey Peters and Danny Trevathan, a true freshman linebacker, who is currently playing the weak side (Will).  He had the hardest hit of the day yesterday, and was said to be flying around the field.

Now, before you give in to your urge to panic, don't.  Two weeks is a long time in college football, and the light can come on at any moment for some of our younger guys.  The most important thing here is for the fans not to get down on the team because of what boils down to struggles of a sore-armed quarterback and an offensive line that has not gelled in the middle yet.  Add into that the fact that Corey Peters is a likely All-SEC defensive tackle this year (remember, he was a 4-star recruit, one of the few Kentucky has), and even though there is not much encouragement to be found in the performance of the offense, the staff now knows exactly where the biggest problems are.

In the next two weeks, Hartline has to embrace the position of quarterback and lead the offense.  We have to get past these nagging injuries and get some guys reps at wide receiver, and the middle of the offensive line has got to find a way to block defenders.  Since most of these things are fundamentals and not issues of talent, we should expect to see rapid improvement once the coaching staff begins to concentrate on greasing the squeaky wheels. 

It seems to me that the little aches and pains and minor injuries are really hampering our development on the offensive side of the ball.  The defense has just been tougher and more focused, as you would expect from a squad that has so many returning and mature players.

In summary, it seems that Brooks' prediction that Kentucky would have a strong defense is right on the mark.  Conversely, our offensive players, which have looked good in drills, are not quite ready to deliver against an SEC-quality defense, which UK likely has.  Keep in mind that the UK defense will probably not be the toughest that the 'Cats offense faces, so significant improvement will be mandatory if UK is to have a good season this year.  But improvement will come.  If this staff has proven one thing, it is that they know how to motivate and coach players into playing quality football.

This is the ninth in a series of posts which will break down the '08 football 'Cats.  Today we break down the special teams.

Kentucky's special team play last year can be separated into two categories: units that performed consistently well, and units that underperformed. 

Underperformed

UK fans have been spoiled over the last several years with exceptional return play, but last year was a bit disappointing.  UK returners fielded a total of 94 kicks ( punts and kick-offs ) without scoring a touchdown.  Actually, they never came close to scoring a touchdown.  Their averages are as follows:

• As a team, UK averaged 22.1 yards per kick-off return on 63 chances, with zero touchdowns.  UK's opponents averaged 23.5 yards per return, and scored two touchdowns.
• As a team, UK averaged 8.1 yards per punt return on 31 chances, also with zero touchdowns.  UK's opponents averaged only 6.0 yards per return, with a long of 16 yards, and zero touchdowns.

Many thought going into last year ( including me ) that UK's return game would flourish, especially considering that the kick-off would be executed from the 30 yard line ( moved back from the 35 yard line ).  But a 22 yard return average isn't' exactly Devin Hester territory.  UK did experience some key injuries to their two top return guys last year ( Rafael Little and Keenan Burton ), which adversely effected the return numbers.  But the guys who replaced the two injured stars are going to be the ones on full-time return duty this year, with the exception of freshman Randall Cobb.  Let's hope a year of experience will aid in increasing the productivity of UK's return men in '08, and a TD or two wouldn't hurt.

'08 Kick Returners

Dicky Lyons 5'11', 185 lb senior -- For his career, Lyons has returned 28 kick-offs for a 24.0 yard average return.  Lyons has returned 14 punts in his career for an average of 6.7 yards per return.  Last year he returned 15 kick-offs, averaging 22.1 yards per return, and two punts for a 20.0 yard average. 

Lyons will be relied upon to return both kick-offs and punts.  Although blessed with speed, he's not a burner, but he has proved to be elusive as a pass receiver.  So far that elusiveness has not translated to his return game.

Tony Dixon 5'9", 203 lb senior -- Dixon returned 8 kick-offs last year for an average of 22.9 yards per return.

Dixon will probably team with Lyons on kick-off returns, at least early in the year.  His mix of speed and power make him a dangerous weapon in return situations. 

Derrick Locke 5'10" ,180 lb sophomore -- Locke returned 5 kick-offs last year for an average of 23.2 yards per return.

The running back couples blazing speed with brute force.  His seemingly fearless attitude makes him a special teams coach's favorite commodity.  Locke could be positioned to make a difference in the return game if given the opportunity.  He has a couple of players with more experience in front of him, but his pure talent may dictate him being a major presence returning kicks.

Alfonso Smith 6'1", 204 lb junior -- Smith has returned 2 kick-offs for an average of 22.0 yards per return.

Smith is very similar to Locke in that they both have supersonic speed, but he also has very little experience.  As is true with Locke, if Smith is given the opportunity he could be spectacular as a returner. 

David Jones 5'10", 185 lb senior -- The newly anointed starting corner-back has returned one kick-off for 14 yards.

Jones is another of UK's rocket-propelled track stars ( 4.4 speed ) masquerading as a football player.  But, I'm not sure how much he will be utilized this year.  He is after-all learning a new position.  A new position where he will be starting in his first ever game at cornerback, so the coaching staff may feel that he has an adequately full plate.  But as always, if injuries become a problem he will be given the opportunity to produce. 

Demoreo Ford 5"10, 186 lb junior -- Ford has returned only 8 punts in his career, for a 6.2 yard per return average. 

Ford's health is always a concern.  If he can get, and remain healthy he has all the qualities a coach looks for in a return man.  He's very fast, and eludes well, but he can't return every kick for a touchdown, which means he has to be tackled.  And being tackled is not his forte'.  With the emergence of Derrick Locke, Alfonso Smith, and Randall Cobb, Ford's number of chances will decrease, but if injuries become an issue he will be called upon to serve.

Randall Cobb 5'11", 180 lb freshman -- "The Phenom" has been mentioned recently as a real possibility to return kicks.  Why am I not surprised?

Performed Consistently   

Lones Seiber 5'9", 182 lb place kicker, junior --  For his career Seiber has made 27 of 44 field goals ( 61.3 % ).  Last year Seiber made 16 of 25 attempts ( 64.0% ).  In his career he has made 84 of 88 point after tries.  Last year the Knoxville native scored a UK school record 99 points. 

Perhaps I should have written that Seiber "performed consistently" for the first eleven games.  Going into the Tennessee game the Knoxville native had made 15 of 20 field goal attempts, but in his final two games he missed four of five chances.  One of which was a blocked 34 yard attempt, in overtime, versus UT ( the ball hit a UT lineman in the face mask ). 

Will that late season ineffectiveness carry-over into '08?  For Rick Brook's sake I hope not.  Seiber performed very well at times last year:

• He made three field goals in the epic victory over LSU ( two in the 4th quarter, and 1 in overtime ) for which he won the "Lou Groza Kickers Award". 
• He also made a huge 48 yard field goal against Vandy, which tied the score going into the half. 
• He made three of three chances versus South Carolina.

He has demonstrated with the above performances that he can be a very reliable kicker, but Seiber's percentage of makes must be around the 80% mark.  UK will probably be in an abundance of close games this year, and Seiber has to be "money, honey" in order for UK to have a good chance of winning consistently. 

Tim Masthay 6'2", 203 lb punter, kicks-off, senior -- For his career Masthay has punted 154 times for a career average of 38.4 yards per punt.  Last year the Murray High School alum punted 50 times for a 39.8 yard average.  Masthay led the SEC with 23 touchbacks on kick-offs last year.  He was also named UK's "Special Teams Player of the Year" in '07.  Opponents averaged only 6.0 yards per return on Masthay's punts.

Masthay has improved his yardage on punts every year.  He has, for the most part, been a picture of consistency for the last season-and-a-half.  On punts he kicks a pretty high ball, which enables the head-hunters to gain ground in the pursuit of the ball carrier.  And, as evidenced by his SEC leading 23 touchbacks, his leg is not lacking in the power department.  He generally does an excellent job of taking away field position, which gives UK a huge edge in many games.  I don't foresee Masthay reversing course, so I look forward to many long punts, and "field goal" kick-offs in '08.

As an added bonus; Masthay's highest punting average for any single game is 47.3 yards.  He accomplished that feat twice; versus LSU and UL, both last year. 

The back-ups

Ryan Tydlacka 6'1", 195 pound kicker and punter, redshirt freshman --  The Trinity High School grad will see action if Masthay is injured or if Seiber is ineffective.  Tydlacka was named 1st Team All-State after averaging 45.6 yards per punt in his senior year. Also in his senior year he made 68 of 70 point after tries, and 5 of 7 field goal attempts. 

J. J. Housley 5'10", 186 lb kicker, senior -- The Hazard native began the '06 campaign as the starter while Seiber recovered from hip surgery.  He made 7 of 8 point after tries, but missed his only field goal attempt. 

Final analysis

If Masthay continues his upward tic, and Seiber can regain the touch he had for the first nine games of last year, then the kicking game will remain an advantage for UK.  Seiber has to do what all good athletes do; put the final two games of last season behind him.  If he is unable to do that, then I don't think Rich Brooks will hesitate to change kickers.

The return game, I believe, will improve over last year.  Even though the returners are inexperienced, their talent level is very high, with speed being their defining characteristic.  As I wrote above, some touchdowns, and good field position is all I ask.  Surely, with the twelve-cylinder, turbo-charged, speed machines UK has returning kicks, I am not asking for too much.

Thanks for reading, and only 15 days until the 'Cats confront e-ville, face to face!