UK's football 'Cats once again enter the final regular season game with high hopes of victory.  Kentucky, coming off a bye week, has had two weeks to put into place new plays, new looks, and hopefully a game-winning attitude, because gaining a victory won't be easy (it's never easy when a team has lost 23 straight to the same opponent).

Emotions are running high in Knoxville.  The players seem to have conquered their disappointment over Phillip Fulmer's dismissal of a few weeks ago, and with a victory over Vanderbilt last weekend, and their strong week of practice, they seem focused on winning their last game for the soon-to-be deposed Fulmer.

I would like to add my congratulations to coach Fulmer on an exceptional reign at UT.  He's been associated with the Tennessee program for 32 years, beginning with his time in Knoxville as a player (four years), then as an assistant to Johnny Majors.  He's of course served 16 years (plus four games) as head man of the big orange (he's 16-0 versus UK).  He guided UT to their first national championship in like a hundred years, in 1998.  He posted a 151-52 career mark ... here's hoping he ends up 151-53. 

Tennessee Schedule

This year UT has wins versus UAB (35-3), Northern Illinois (13-9), Mississippi State (34-3), and last weeks road win against Vandy (20-10).  The Vols losses shape up this way: @UCLA (27-24 in ot), home against Florida (30-6), @ Auburn (14-12), @ Georgia (26-14), home against Alabama (29-9), @ South Carolina (27-6), and at home against Wyoming (13-7).

Tennessee Offensive Personnel

Quarterback Jonathan Crompton: 6'4", 220 lb junior -- This year Crompton has thrown for 788 yards and three touchdowns, while going 80 for 159 and five interceptions.  For his career Crompton has completed 118 of 267 passes for 1,286 yards, eight touchdowns, and nine interceptions.  

Fulmer said this week that Crompton will be the likely starter this week versus UK.

Quarterback B.J. Coleman: 6'3", 210 lb red-shirt freshman -- In three games this year, Coleman is 4 for 8 passing, for 21 yards, one interception and zero touchdowns. 

Coleman was limited this week in practice with a foot injury.  Fulmer said this week that Coleman would probably see action against Kentucky.

Running back Arian Foster: 6'1", 215 lb senior -- The '07 Second Team All-SEC selection has rushed 110 times for 511 yards (4.6 yards per carry).  He's run for one touchdown.  He also has 18 catches for 149 yards (8.3 yards per catch), but no receiving touchdowns.  For his career Foster has rushed for 2,905 yards, which is good for second place all-time in Tennessee history.  Foster has proved to be multi-talented, evidenced by his 82 career receptions for 685 yards.  The senior is third all-time in UT history with 3,804 all-purpose yards, behind Stanley Morgan ('73-'76) and Willie Gault ('79-'82).

Foster as made a nice living at UK's expense over the years: In '05 versus the 'Cats he carried the ball 26 times for 114 yards and caught five passes for 44 yards.  Last year he rushed 27 times for 118 yards and caught 9 passes or 98 yards and a touchdown, on UT's first play from scrimmage.

Running back Lennon Creer: 6'1", 210 lb sophomore -- This year Creer has rushed 67 times for 364 yards (5.4 yards per carry), and three touchdowns.  For his career Creer has ran the ball 103 times for 578 yards (5.6 yards per carry), and four touchdowns.  He was honored as a PrepStar All-America coming out of high school in Texas.  He was also named the Old Spice Redzone Player of the Year in Texas.

Running back Montario Hardesty: 6'0", 210 lb junior -- Hardesty has 69 rushes for 252 yards (3.7 yards per carry), and six touchdowns.  He's also caught four passes for 24 yards.  For his career Hardesty has 270 carries for 1,027 yards (3.8 yards per carry), and 13 touchdowns.

Wide receiver Gerald Jones: 6'0", 185 lb sophomore -- Jones has made 27 catches for 308 yards (11.4 yards per catch).

Last year versus UK, Jones caught a touchdown pass in the first overtime.

Wide receiver Lucas Taylor: 6'0", 185 lb senior -- Taylor has made 26 catches for 372 yards (12.8 yards per catch), and one touchdown this year.  For his career he has 113 receptions for 1,43 yards, and six touchdowns. 

Last year against Kentucky Taylor had six catches for 103 yards and one touchdown.

Wide receiver Austin Rogers: 6'2", 185 lb senior -- Rogers has made 14 catches for 180 yards (12.9 yards per catch).  For his career he has 76 receptions for 891 yards (11.7 yards per catch), and four touchdowns.

Rogers was the cause of much pain for UK fans last year when he rushed 13 yards for a touchdown, and later caught the game-winning two-point conversion in the fourth overtime.

Wide receiver Josh Briscoe: 6'3", 183 lb senior -- This year Briscoe has made 14 catches for 176 yards (12.6 yards per catch), and one touchdown.  For is career he has 79 receptions for 866 yards (10.9 yards per catch), and eight touchdowns.

Wide receiver Denarius Moore: 6'1", 185 lb sophomore -- Moore has 10 catches for 208 yards (terrific 20.8 yards per catch), and one touchdown.  In his short career he has caught 24 passes for 420 yards (17.5 yards per catch), and one touchdown.

Tight end Luke Stocker: 6'6", 245 lb sophomore -- The Madison Central High School grad, and Berea native, has made 13 catches for 139 yards (10.7 yards per catch).  For his career he has 17 receptions for 150 yards (8.8 yards per catch), and a touchdown.

Placekicker Daniel Lincoln: 6'0", 204 lb sophomore -- On the year Lincoln has made 10 of 17 field goal attempts.  From 20-39 yards he's 8 of 11, and from 40-49 yards he's 2 of 3.  For his career he has made 31 of 46 attempts.  Lincoln was honored last year as an All-America by the Football Writers, and a Freshman All-America.  He was also named Second Team All-SEC.  Lincoln was a Groza Award semifinalist in '07( which goes to the nations top placekicker).

Tennessee Defensive Personnel

UT's defense is loaded with talent.  They possess size, speed and experience.  So it should not come as a surprise that the Vols rank very high nationally in nearly every statistical category: Total Defense - 6th (269.9 yards allowed) ... Scoring defense - 16th (17.4 points per game) ... Passing defense - 9th (166.2 yards per game) ... Rushing defense - 14th (103.7 yards per game).

Tennessee's defensive dominance begins with all-world ...

Safety Eric Berry: 5'11", 195 lb sophomore -- Berry has recorded 67 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, three sacks, seven interceptions (265 INT return yards and two touchdowns) and six pass break-ups.  Berry was named SEC Defensive Freshman of the Year in '07.  He was also a consensus Freshman All-America and of course made Freshman All-SEC.  In '07 he was voted Second Team All-SEC, and he led all SEC freshman with 86 tackles.  Berry has 487 career interception return yards in only 24 games played.  He's threatening the NCAA record of 501 yards, set by Florida State's Terrell Buckley.  He is one of three finalists for the Thorpe Award, which goes to the nations top defensive back, and he's the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Week.  Needless to say, Berry has to be accounted for on every UK offensive snap.

Last year versus UK he recorded a season high 14 tackles and one pass break-up. 

Linebacker Ellix Wilson: 5'10", 225 lb senior -- Wilson leads the Vols with 80 tackles.  He has recorded 4.5 tackles for loss, one sack, one interception, and two pass break-ups.

Wilson recorded one sack last year versus UK.

Linebacker Rico McCoy: 6'1", 221 lb junior -- McCoy has 79 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, one sack and three pass break-ups.  He was named Second Team All-SEC in '07.

Last year against UK McCoy recorded nine tackles and one pass break-up.

Defensive back Dennis Rogan: 5'10", 185 lb sophomore -- Rogan has 50 tackles, one tackle for loss, one interception, and five pass break-ups.  Rogan also returns kick-offs, averaging a solid 24.9 yards per return.

Last year versus Kentucky, Rogan had three tackles and one tackle for loss.

Linebacker Nevin McKenzie: 6'2", 215 lb senior -- McKenzie has made 46 tackles, eight tackles for loss, four sacks, one interception and one pass break-up.  He's a JUCO transfer. 

Defensive tackle Dan Williams: 6'3", 310 lb junior -- Williams has 46 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, and one pass break-up.

Last year Williams blocked a Lones Seiber field goal attempt, which ended up costing UK the football game. 

Defensive end Robert Ayers: 6'3", 275 lb senior -- Ayers has 43 tackles, a team leading 14.5 tackles for loss, three sacks, one interception, one pass break-up, and eight quarterback hits (tied for team lead).

Last year versus UK he recorded four tackles and one tackle for loss.

Defensive end Wes Brown: 6'4", 256 lb junior -- Brown has 37 tackles. 6.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and eight quarterback hits (tied for team lead with Ayers).

Punter Britton Colquitt: Colquitt has punted 38 times for a 43.2 average.  He's had no punts blocked.  Colquitt was selected Second Team All-SEC in '07.

Kicker Chad Cunningham: He's kicked-off 37 times, and recorded three touch-backs.

How did Tennessee beat Vandy ...

After UT's home loss to Wyoming (13-7) a few weeks ago, many thought the Vols may very well 'mail in' the remainder of the season ...  'many' would be wrong.  Tennessee responded with defensive gusto in their 20-10 victory over Vanderbilt last week.  Let's take a look at what enabled UT to come out with that seemingly improbable victory:

• UT ran the ball, Vandy did not -- The Vols rushed for 222 yards on 51 carries (4.4 yards per carry), while limiting Vandy to only 25 yards on 28 carries (0.9 yards per carry).  Tennessee was led in rushing by Lennon Creer with 80 yards on only 13 carries (6.2 yards per carry).  Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty chipped in with 53 yards and 41 yards respectively. 
• UT contained Vandy's passing game, and the Vols weren't forced to pass -- Vandy quarterbacks Chris Nickson and MacKenzie Adams were a combined 19 of 44 for 188 yards, and two interceptions.  Tennessee's D-line and linebackers pressured the Vandy QB's all day, finishing with six sacks.  Fulmer went with the run game almost exclusively (he did say this week that he would like to throw more against UK).  The two UT quarterbacks finished the day only 4 of 9 for 21 yards, and two interceptions (let's HOPE they throw more).
• UT didn't have to go far to score -- UT managed only one sustained drive: a nine play 65 yard drive, which resulted in the only offensive touchdown of the day for the Vols.  UT's other 'drives' and scores: five play 27 yard drive, which resulted in a field goal -- this drive was facilitated by a Vandy eighteen yard punt.  Eric Berry returned an interception 45 yards for a touchdown, and after a 69 yard interception return by Brent Vinson, UT ran two plays for zero yards and again kicked a field goal.  All of UT's scoring occurred in the first half.

Final Thoughts

It will take a tremendous offensive and defensive effort to beat the Vols in Knoxville.  But it can be done: UK must force Tennessee to pass the ball, and there are only two ways to do that -- Shut down the UT ground attack, or score early and often, putting the Vols in the position of having to throw the ball in order to play catch up.

Neither of those scenarios are highly likely to happen though, after-all, UK's 50th ranked run defense gives up 136 yards per game on average, and we've seen a number of backs post huge numbers against the 'Cat's defense this year.  Getting off to a quick offensive start has also not been UK's forte this year; they've been outscored 98-31 in the first quarter, with many of those points coming off of UK turnovers, or other, more creative methods. 

Kentucky's only real hope (other than forcing a multitude of turnovers) is for Randall Cobb to play out of his mind.  With UK decimated by injuries to so many offensive players, Cobb will be the one looked toward to provide energy and creativity within the context of the offense.  In order to fully utilize Cobb's multifaceted offensive arsenal, I feel that the run to pass ratio should be around 60-40 or 65-35, run.  Kentucky has the talent to wear down UT's defensive unit, but the coaches have to stay with the run.  UK has been far too successful running the spread/option sets to give up on the tactic if early success is not forthcoming.  As an aside, I would really be pleased if 6'5" TE Maurice Grinter was utilized more when UK opts to throw the ball.  He's a nightmare match-up for a linebacker, because of his size, athleticism and speed, plus he as Charmin-soft hands, and he gains yards after the catch.

On a positive note; UK does have one aspect of this game going their way, and that's the fact that they've had an extra week to prepare.  Hopefully, we will see some new looks from Joker Phillips and Rich Brooks, if not, it could be a very long evening for the boys in blue.

Most prognosticators are predicting a low scoring affair.  I say ...

Kentucky -- 20 Tennessee -- 17 ... hope springs eternal, and 7-5 looks a lot better than 6-6.

Tim Masthay 

UK punter Tim Masthay has been named a First Team Academic All-America, and he currently ranks third in the NCAA in punting with a 45.6 yard average.

Congratulations to the UK senior.  Truly, a job well done.

Thanks for reading, and Go 'Cats beat Tennessee!

So what has changed as a result of the Florda game?  Micah Johnson has re-injured his sprained ankle and is doubtful.  Marcus McClinton's knee is a bit worse, Myron Pyor is still out, Kyrus Lanxter is still down with a knee, Ricky Lumpkin has a strained calf, Justin Jeffries and Maurice Grinter are banged up, as is Josh Minton.  Dicky Lyons and Derrick Locke are both still out for the season (Yes, we have no miracles today).  Finally, Randall Cobb is now the starting quarterback

The Wildcats are still far from 100% healthy as they head down to Starkville to take on the Mississippi State University Bulldogs, and MSU is much, much healthier than Kentucky with only one minor injury and one major injury.  What this means is that even though UK is facing a foothill instead of Mt. Everest relatively speaking, the Wildcats still have a hill to climb against a team that went bowling last year.

Injuries are a part of football, and as much as we moan and groan about them, UK's troubles are absolutely nothing compared to what the Georgia Bulldogs have been dealing with -- they have 10  players with long-term injuries, seven of which are season-ending, and they just undressed LSU in Death Valley, 52-38.  When you are in the SEC, injuries must be overcome, and great teams overcome them.

OK, so Kentucky is not a great team this year, but can they become a competent one?  So far, UK is adequate only on defense, as even giving up 63 points to the Gators moved Kentucky down from #1 to just #7 in scoring defense.  Obviously, the 'Cats defense is better than that, but a combination of injuries and a red hot Florida offense made them look like a high school team.  The real problem, though is UK's offense, which has not been competent against SEC competition.  Yes, it has had a few good moments in the Alabama and Arkansas game, but generally speaking, the Wildcat offense has put tremendous pressure on the defense to carry the load.

Will that change with Randall Cobb now at the helm?  Obviously, we hope so, and Brooks at least thinks it may or he wouldn't have made the move.  Don't think for a minute that Rich Brooks isn't stubborn enough to thumb his nose at Kentucky fans who have been screaming at the top of their collective lungs for Randall Cobb at QB if he thinks the things that are going wrong can't be corrected to some extent with this move.  The fact that Brooks is making it is really a confirmation that the situation looks to Brooks pretty much like it looks to the rest of us -- Cobb provides an extra dimension that appears to take UK's offense from futility to some semblance of proficiency, something Kentucky has only known against inferior competition this year.  Is a merely competent offense enough to overcome our other problems?  We won't know until Saturday.

I know this is obvious, but it bears repeating -- the biggest thing Cobb can give UK at quarterback is the ability to sustain favorable field position by moving the football.  Yes, points are important also, but Kentucky has been able to beat opponents this year by keeping them in a hole and forcing turnovers and mistakes.  Against three of our last four opponents, UK was unable to do that with any consistency.  Even if a drive doesn't score, if it keeps the defense off the field a while and backs the opponent up to near their goal line, it has to be considered a strategic success.

Tactically, though, Kentucky needs to start putting points on the board.  That begins with getting the football back into the red zone with some semblance of regularity, and getting at least three points out of those efforts.  SEC teams are going to score on Kentucky, but they will score way less if the 'Cats keep them pinned down and our defense as fresh as possible.  That gives the 'Cats an opportunity to be in every game.

Another thing Cobb brings to the table that couldn't be found under Hartline is a constant threat of a big play, which he can make either with his feet or with his arm.  Cobb's mobility forces linebackers to always be concerned about him, the pass rush to be more conservative, and blitzes much more dangerous.  That puts pressure on defenses, especially linebackers, not to make bad judgments or face the possibility of turning a running back or Cobb loose in the secondary.  That makes scoring points when the Wildcats get behind much more probable.

The other thing Cobb brings, in my opinion, is confidence.  It has been clear to me, as it has to others, that the offense has lost much of its confidence in Mike Hartline's ability to run the team.  It isn't all Hartline's fault, but as I have said before, UK needs to forget about blaming people and start looking for ways to fix the problem.  Cobb's presence gives the offense more confidence, and that is very important.  A confident offense is a dangerous offense, as we all well remember from the gunslinging days of André Woodson & Co.

Finally, Cobb gives UK a look for which there is precious little tape for opponents to study.  Cobb has been used sparingly at quarterback, and he gives Phillips the freedom to call plays that the opponents simply haven't seen, which is always an advantage, and Kentucky needs every advantage they can find against SEC opponents on the road.  Mississippi State may not be as threatening a competitor as the Gators this year, but last year Brooks & Co. took the Bulldogs for granted, and they sent UK fans home from Commonwealth Stadium with frowns instead of smiles.

In the final analysis, Cobb's presence under center makes UK's offense look much more threatening than Hartline has this year.  A lot of that is because of Kentucky's youth and inexperience at wide receiver, but as I said earlier, blame is not relevant here.  What is relevant is making the offense a genuine threat, and taking some of the pressure off a defense that is trying to get healthy enough to compete for the  SEC stretch run.  It's a sure bet that if Cobb can't get that done, his stint at starting QB will be a short one.

The Game

Even the most pessimistic of 'Cat fans didn't see this one coming.  It's not only the margin of defeat that is so shocking (58 points), but more so the manner in which Kentucky lost; blocked punts, blocked field goal attempts, and interceptions returned for touchdowns.  Special teams coach Steve Ortmayer must have aged 10 years in a matter of three hours.  Of course UK's nationally ranked defense contributed to the loss; cornerbacks beat for touchdowns, allowing 5.2 yards per rush (they didn't seal the edges), and mindless personal foul penalties. 

Ortmayer had this to say about his unit's performance:

"It's poor preparation by us, a poor plan by me, and poor demand of the plan by me."

At least he took responsibility for the pitiful special teams play.

Don't get me started on the offense.  Other than Randall Cobb and Moncell Allen, they all pretty much stunk; Hartline looked like a deer, not in the headlights, but a deer tied to the hood of a pickup truck.  You get my point. 

Rich Brooks chimed in with these words on the letdown:

"I didn't think I'd be up here after a game where we had things go as badly as this.  Obviously, I did a poor job of preparing the team schematically and mentally in every phase."  Brooks continued, "The mental breakdowns after having two punts blocked cascaded on us, and I didn't do a good job of getting it stopped or fixed."

I expected nothing less from Brooks. 

When a team loses by 58 points, there just aren't too many positives to write about.  And since I can only handle the above quick rehash of the 'The Swamp Romp,' let's take a look at the larger, more meaningful picture.  I realize in times like these that can be a difficult proposition, but for the purposes of the next few minutes, let's try.

The Moment

If a three hour football game can be described as a moment (as in a moment in time), then UK's loss to Florida is a moment defined by embarrassment, and ineptitude; a total breakdown of execution by the players and coaches.  It's the snowball effect; one bad thing happens, followed by another and another.  And before one can say "mulligan please", the game is over, and SportsCenter is running a crawl all day and night that screams, "Florida - 65  UK - 3" --  Just as a friendly reminder.

UK's football history is littered with such moments, so much so, that some years have included more embarrassing moments than good.  Actually, that's been true for many years, especially over the last three decades. 

But the moment is over, and it's time to move on.  The question that remains to be answered is how will this moment be remembered in January?  Will it be remembered as the low point in an abysmal season, or the turning point in a winning season?

Redefining the Moment

Not long ago, October 14, 2006 to be exact, Rich Brooks took a 3-3 UK squad to Death Valley and were unceremoniously spanked by LSU 49-0, in a game that wasn't as close as the final score.  The loss dropped the 'Cats to 3-4 with games against Georgia and Tennessee remaining on the schedule.  The prognosis for the rest of the season was bleak.  But something happened on the way to another losing season, something changed in the week immediately after the 'Death Valley Disaster.'  

That team, which finished 8-5, decided to recommit themselves to playing winning football.  They knew they had too much talent to lose in such a disturbing manner; they knew they were better than how they performed against LSU.  That team finished the season by winning five of their final six contests.  They redefined the moment that was the LSU game.  Instead of hiding from the embarrassment, they let the embarrassment feed them for the final six weeks.  The LSU game became the turning point in their season, and has propelled UK to an overall record of 18-9 since that painful night. 

This team is capable of doing the same thing, and the reason I feel that way is because they are better than what they showed Saturday.  There is too much talent in that locker room for them to perform so poorly.  More importantly, there is too much pride in that locker room for them to take the beating and meekly crawl home.  I think the players are angry, angry with themselves.  I think the coaches are angry, angry with themselves. 

Anger in a football team can lead to what happened in 2006, and many of the current players were on the roster in '06 for the "Turnaround:" DeMoreo Ford, Dicky Lyons, Mike Hartline (he was a redshirt), Alfonso Smith, Maurice Grinter, Garry Williams, Myron Pryor, Corey Peters, Trevard Lindley, David Jones, Marcus McClinton, Braxton Kelley, the list goes on and on.  They witnessed the change, they witnessed the re-dedication, they witnessed 5-1.  But can they lead this team from the brink, back onto solid ground?

The first step in recognizing that one needs to change is accepting responsibility for the failure.  If Jeremy Jarmon is any indication, then the players are pointing their fingers at the man in the mirror:

"We had a complete collapse offensively, defensively, and special teams-wise.  All of this lies on us.  The coaches are going to come in here and talk about, 'it's their fault,' but that's not the case.  We knew what we had to do and just didn't do it.  We went over a lot of special-teams stuff as far as blocking punts and field goals, and we came out here and made the same damn mistakes we made last week and the week before that."

Let it feed ya, Jeremy.

2 - 2

That's all UK needs to do to finish the regular season with seven wins.  Beat two of these four: Georgia, Vandy, Tennessee, or Mississippi State.  That's all it takes for this season to be considered a wild success ... record-wise at least.  Most publications picked UK to finish 3-9 or 4-8.  Very few had Kentucky winning more than five games. 

So for all the anti-Brooks, anti-Joker jokers out there ... put a sock in it.  Frankly, if Brooks and his staff haven't earned your respect and admiration at this point, then my advice is to do some research and see for yourselves how historically significant these times are for the UK football program.   

For one, I appreciate what has happened with the Kentucky football program enough to endure the valleys, as long as I know I have a fighter's chance of reaching the mountaintop.

Thanks for reading, and Go 'Cats!

With Arkansas riding high off of their 25-22 upset road win over Auburn, UK is once again catching an opponent feeling good about themselves (South Carolina had just won in Oxford).  Victories like that tend to build confidence and team unity, especially in a team as young as Arkansas.  Will Bobby Petrino's squad continue to improve, or was the Auburn victory more of a showcase for all that is wrong on the plains of Tubber-ville?   I know that Bobby Petrino will have his group ready to play, so UK better bring the good stuff if they harbor any hopes at all of reaching six or seven wins.

Razorback Personnel

Quarterback Casey Dick: 6'2", 215 lb senior -- On the year Dick is 115-197 through the air for 1,411 yards, five touchdowns and seven interceptions.  He has started all six Arkansas games.  Last year Dick started all 13 games and was 150-262 for 1,695 yards, with 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. 

Running back Michael Smith: 5'7", 173 lb junior -- Smith has 109 rushes for 599 yards, which is good for a 5.5 yards per carry average.  He leads the SEC with 119.8 yards per game and he has ran for four touchdowns.  Of course last year Smith played behind Darren McFadden and Felix Jones (both future NFL superstars), so he only garnered 46 carries for 303 yards (6.6 yards per carry) and three touchdowns. 

Tight end D.J. Williams: 6'2", 250 lb sophomore -- Williams has made 28 catches for 315 yards (11.2 yards per catch) and two touchdowns (all three totals lead the team).  He was selected to the All-SEC Freshman first team last year after making five catches for 94 yards.   

Wide receiver Joe Adams: 6'0", 175 lb freshman -- The true freshman is second on the team with 22 receptions for 285 yards (13.0 yards per catch) and one touchdown.  The multi-talented athlete is a converted cornerback.  He was ranked the #12 best cornerback prospect in the country by Rivals, and the #2 overall prospect in the state of Arkansas.  He's started in five of six games this year.

Wide receiver London Crawford: 6'2", 200 lb junior -- Smith has 15 catches for 163 yards (10.9 yards per catch).  Last year he started the first six games at split end, making eight catches for 147 yards and a touchdown.  He missed the rest of the season with a knee injury.

Wide receiver Greg Childs: 6'4", 205 lb freshman -- Childs has made 12 catches for 171 yards (14.2 yards per catch) and one touchdown.  Another true freshman, the receiver was the #9 ranked recruit in Arkansas, and was the #72 rated receiver prospect nationally.

Defensive end Adrian Davis: 6'4", 238 lb junior -- Davis is second on the team with 35 tackles.  He has also recorded three sacks (all versus Auburn), five tackles for loss and one interception.  In '07 Davis made 65 tackles (10 tackles for loss), two interceptions and three sacks.

Linebacker Jerry Franklin: 6'2", 229 lb redshirt freshman -- Franklin leads the Hogs with 48 tackles.  He also has 2.5 tackles for loss, and one interception.  Franklin is another conversion; he was the #38 rated safety prospect according to Rivals and the overall #8 prospect in Arkansas. 

Cornerback Jamar Love: 6'1", 197 lb senior -- Love has recorded seven pass-breakups, which is impressive considering the Hogs have only had to face 161 thrown passes by their opponents.  He is experienced, having played in all 13 games last year ( 22 tackles and four pass break-ups).

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My father was the first one to say the words.  Saturday afternoon, sometime in the third quarter of UK's demoralizing 24-17 setback to South Carolina.  Ya knew it had to be said ... "now that's 'old' Kentucky."  And he was right.

What I witnessed yesterday, on a perfect football afternoon, was a throwback, and I'm not talking about team jerseys.  It's hard for a team to give up only 274 total yards, while at the same time allowing 24 points.  But Saturday it was "old" Kentucky, they can find a way to give up only a paltry 274 total yards and still lose.  Of course losing is made easier when a team gives up an 81 yard touchdown scamper off of a blocked 29 yard field goal attempt (I think the entire Carolina team had a shot at blocking the kick ... the penetration they got on the rush rendered the kick futile).  "Old" Kentucky was also kind enough to give a helping hand to Carolina by not covering their lane assignments on a kick-off, thus creating gaps, and allowing for an 84 yard kick-off return.  Which set up a 16 yard touchdown pass.  Kentucky only gaining 218 total yards also helped the Carolina cause. 

A study of the futility led me to a few conclusions as to why I feel "old" Kentucky made an uninvited appearance at Commonwealth Saturday.  My conclusions, in no particular order: 

Giving up a big play after a touchdown -- "Old" Kentucky made a habit of giving back momentum.

I know one play in a college football game doesn't generally win or lose the contest, but there are times when one play can drastically change the tenor of a tilt.

Ask any athlete who has played in front of big crowds if momentum is important. 

After Trevard Lindley intercepts a Chris Smelley pass early in the game, and returns it for a touchdown, UK turns around, and on the ensuing kick-off gives up an 84 yard return.  Followed by a 16 yard touchdown pass.  Within a matter of game-seconds, the Commonwealth crowd goes silent, and "mo" evaporates. 

That was an opportunity for Kentucky to put SC away early.  A lost opportunity.  Vintage "Old" Kentucky.

Second down and long -- "Old" Kentucky constantly found itself running for one and two yards on first down.

UK had 23 second down offensive opportunities, 15 of those opportunities were 2nd & 8 or longer.  On average, UK faced a 2nd & 7. 

UK is not getting the job done on first down; too many one and two yard runs, too many incomplete or very short passes, too many 2nd and longs.  When an offense (albeit a young offense) is struggling as UK's is, the coaches (and players) absolutely HAVE TO FIND A WAY to consistently gain four, five, or six yards on first down.  This stat is also partly responsible for UK not throwing long more often.  When a team is stuck in 2nd and 3rd and long, it's much riskier to go deep, because if the pass isn't completed they're either going to have to punt, or pray for a 3rd and long conversion.  Offensive coordinators are much more open to going deep when it's 2nd and 2 (except for Steve Spurrier).

Third down conversion attempts -- "Old" Kentucky always threw well short of the needed first down yardage.

Now that's funny ... UK converting on third down.  Yesterday, UK was one for 16 on their third down plays.  As maddening as that stat is, a look at the play selection on third down is even more dramatically disappointing:

• 3rd & 12 -- Three yard pass to Maurice Grinter.
• 3rd & 8 -- Three yard rush by Mike Hartline.
• 3rd & 10 -- Eight yard pass to Dicky Lyons.
• 3rd & 5 -- Two yard pass to Randall Cobb.
• 3rd & 3 -- Two yard rush by Derrick Locke.
• 3rd & 10 -- Five yard pass to Locke.
• 3rd & 4 -- Two yard pass to Moncell Allen.

Five of those seven opportunities were passes thrown well short of the first down marker.  "Old" Kentucky, indeed. 

South Carolina's 3rd down "Visor" magic -- "Old" Kentucky couldn't stop Spurrier if every Commonwealth lovely were threatened with repatriation to the Palmetto State. 

South Carolina was eight for 17 on their third down attempts, holding true to their 47% season average.  It takes all the drama out of the game; when one knows a conversion is imminent, one loses interest, and ever so slowly, sanity.

Carolina's offense and Kentucky's newly generous defense provided the following 3rd down opportunities and results:

• 3rd & 8 -- Twelve yard pass completion.
• 3rd & 11 -- Eleven yard pass completion (what a coincidence).
• 3rd & 14 -- Twenty-seven yard pass completion.
• 3rd & 10 -- Thirteen yard pass completion.
• 3rd & 12 -- Seventeen yard pass completion.
• 3rd & 5 -- Twenty-four yard pass completion.

I don't agree at all with the whole, "giving is better than receiving," life philosophy. 

Another Spurrier QB makes his bones at UK's expense -- "Old" Kentucky was on the receiving end of a number of career best games by Spurrier-coached quarterbacks.  

If Stephen Garcia didn't win the starting quarterback spot with his performance versus UK Saturday, then I encourage him to seek a transfer to Kentucky; he can be my quarterback anytime.

His success shouldn't come as a surprise.  The 6"2', 221 pound redshirt freshman (out of Tampa, Florida) was a highly heralded recruit out of high school.  Garcia was the fourth rated dual-threat quarterback in the nation by Rivals.  He was also the 12th best prospect in Florida.  He was rated a 4-star recruit. 

Garcia threw for 8,081 yards in his high school career (good for fourth in Florida high school history), and 83 touchdowns (sixth in Florida high school history).  He rushed for another 1,345 yards (on 263 carries) and 17 touchdowns. 

Saturday, he announced his presence with authority.  His stat line is impressive: 10-14 for 169 yards.  He ran six times for a positive yardage total of 38 yards, but he was sacked three times for a loss of 16 yards, so his stat line reads six rushes for 22 yards.  He was much more dangerous than that.

After starting Carolina quarterback Chris Smelley (9-23 for 105 yards and 2 picks) was justifiably yanked by Steve Spurrier at the 6:46 mark of the third quarter, Garcia torched the 'Cats on the ground and through the air.  Garcia led Carolina on drives of 50, 60, 58, and 38 yards, resulting in three field goal attempts (only one make) and one touchdown.  Conversely, Smelley's longest drive of the day was his first, which was good for 38 yards (he had four drives of less than 13 yards).

Garcia isn't a change of pace quarterback, he's a change of game-plan quarterback.  And he was made that way by Kentucky.

A rundown of UK stats, comment included

Mike Hartline played his worse game as a 'Cat.  He was 23-43 for 152 yards and two interceptions.  Twenty-three completions for 152 yards; that's an average of 6.6 yards per catch.  Not good.

Hartline seemed off.  He overthrew more than a few receivers, and was on-target too few times.  He did once again have some drops, but not to the extent of the earlier games. 

I've been a big Hartline defender, I hope he doesn't make me regret making that decision.

UK's running game was once again M.I.A..  After Derrick Locke and Randall Cobb both had single carries for nine yard gains on Kentucky's first possession of the game, a UK back never ran for more than five yards.  As a team UK rushed for a 2.8 yards per carry average.

This area remains the solid favorite to win the "Most Disappointing Aspect" of UK's team.  It's time to quit talking, and start achieving.

The fourth quarter belonged to Carolina.  For the game, time of possession was almost dead-even at 30:43 to 29:17 ( SC with the slight edge), but in the fourth quarter Carolina owned the pigskin for 10:42.  Leaving UK with the ball for only 4:18.

The final result, UK giving up 10 fourth quarter, game-deciding points.

Tim Masthay continues to impress.  Masthay punted six times for an outstanding 46.7 average.  He did have a 36 yard punt, which is about six yards short of his average, but heck, the guys human.

He also had a kick-off that was a frozen rope (line-drive), which left the coverage about fifteen yards from the return man (Captain Munnerlyn) on the catch.  This is not advantageous.  The coverage recovered quickly, but a number of lane assignments were abandoned, resulting in the long return (84 yards).

Masthay is culpable, but the coverage had 10 guys to make up for his mistake.  None did.

All in all ...

A game to forget for the fans, a game to learn from for the players. 

I certainly don't see this game as a death knell for the season, it just makes the Arkansas game this coming Saturday the biggest game most of UK's players have ever played in.  Can anyone say "must win?" 

If UK had played horribly against Alabama, I'd feel much more gloom and doom, but I'll keep my fingers crossed for a Petrino beat-down.  If not, a season to forget could soon follow.

I'll be accepting applications from anyone interested in performing an exorcism.  Previous successful experience is a must, for the ghosts of "old" Kentucky must be vanquished, and right quick. 

Thanks for reading, and Go 'Cats!

The Palmetto State of South Carolina is one of my favorite places on earth.  It has so many great things going on that it's hard to know where to begin -- great beaches, wonderful golf courses, beautiful country, warm weather, Southern grace.  In fact, I like it so much that I see myself spending my later years there.

The University of South Carolina has always fancied itself a football school, but the reality of the situation is that most of the good football since the 1980's has been played southwest of Columbia at Clemson University.  Of course, the two schools are bitter rivals, and it was partially this imbalance that Steve Spurrier was hired to correct.  but in 3.5 years at USC, Spurrier has yet to contend for the SEC East championship or the SEC championship.

Be that as it may, the Gamecocks have owned Kentucky since 1999.  Many of those years, South Carolina has simply been much better than the 'Cats owing to NCAA probation, but now the pendulum has swung and the two schools are very competitive talent-wise.  In fact, no less than eight of Kentucky's players come from the Palmetto State, which produces many more good football players than the state of Kentucky.  They include safety Matt Lentz and defensive end Ventrell Jenkins.  South Carolina, on the other hand, boasts not one single player from the Bluegrass State.

Let's take a look at how this game unfolds:

Continue reading this post »

Coming into this ballgame, I didn't think UK could win.  My prediction was 23-13 'Bama, but in my heart I thought it possible that the Tide could run away and hide.  After-all, this same 'Bama team had just destroyed Georgia between the hedges, and Kentucky's offense was mostly, well, offensive.  I knew UK's defense was good, but I wasn't sure how good; they simply had not played anyone in the same solar system as Alabama.  Put it this way; if someone would have told me before the game that UK would hold Alabama to one offensive touchdown, and a field goal, I would have directed that person to the nearest mental health care specialist.  'Bama had just neatly hung 41 on the 'Dawgs, UK surely couldn't hold them to under 28-30 points, or so I thought.  Add those feelings to my total lack of confidence in UK's offensive unit ( versus 'Bama, anyway ), and one can see why I thought, deep down, that Alabama might send UK home 'talkin' to themselves.'

Well, what I thought was wrong.  Yes, UK's offense was as anemic as a supermodel in the first half ( they gained a middle school-like 60 yards ), but they rebounded nicely, gaining 216 total yards in the second half along with two touchdowns, and the defense held 'Bama to only 137 second half yards.  Down 14-0 at the half, the 'Cats didn't fold, they didn't hang their heads, they came out in the second half and played the #2 team in the country as tough as anyone has, or will.  

It just took UK a half to shake the 'Curse of the Bear.' 

I nearly threw my television out into the street in the first half, though:

• Dropped passes -- This game, instead of the freshman, two upper class-man ( Tony Dixon and DeMoreo Ford ) let their teammates down with a couple of careless drops.  Saturday the drops were even more harmful than the seemingly hundreds of other drops this year, because two of the five drops kept UK from making first downs, and on a day when first downs came at a premium, every opportunity needs to be well executed.  Dropping first down passes is simply inexcusable.
• Mental mistakes -- Penalties negating first downs, or putting UK in 2nd or 3rd and long situations; against a defense as formidable as 'Bama's, UK cannot afford negative yardage plays.
• Giving up big plays -- The defense allowed a 78 yard rushing touchdown to Glen Coffee.  At that point I thought, "Oh no, here we go." They also allowed a 40 yard pass completion to Julio Jones ( if any of UK's young receivers were thinking that they were the 'cats meow', take a look at Jones, now that guys a pass-catching freak ).
• An inability to run the ball -- 16 yards on 12 carries in the first half, pathetic.  It is truly perplexing that UK's O-line can protect Hartline so well, but can't open holes for the runners to scamper through.
• Hartline gift-wrapping a 'Bama touchdown -- That's the third time this year that Hartline has dropped the ball while attempting to pass ... the problem needs to be remedied, stat.  After the game Rich Brooks pointed to that play as easily the biggest play of the game. 

But through all the stroke-inducing misplays and mistakes, the team came out in the second half focused on playing better, and convinced that they could play with 'Bama.  They didn't back down, and they didn't play as if they were intimidated ... they competed:

• The defense was nothing short of spectacular: For the first 12 minutes of the third quarter, UK's defense held Alabama to 24 total yards ( those yards came on four possessions ).  They harassed Tide signal-caller John Parker Wilson ( three sacks and countless hurries ) to the point of him having to roll out of the pocket, where he performs as a below average college quarterback ( he was 7 of 17 for 106 yards and a pick ).  The secondary blanketed the 'Bama wide-outs ( Trevard Lindley set the UK record for most career pass breakups ) making the road even more difficult for Wilson to navigate. 
• Offensively, UK didn't set any records in the second half, but they did score two touchdowns, and gained a respectable 216 yards.  At least one aspect of the offense shone brightly in the Alabama sunshine; the pass catching of Derrick Locke ( he lead UK with eight catches for 81 yards ).  We heard talk before the game that Locke might be utilized more as a pass catcher, and after seeing the results Saturday, one would think that that offensive innovation will continue.  No, he didn't record a single drop.  I also like what Joker Phillips has been doing with tight end Maurice Grinter over the last couple of games.  My only complaint is that the offense doesn't utilize Grinter's talent enough.
• Mike Hartline, I thought, performed adequately, especially considering he had never played in that type of environment before.  The fumble and interception ( which he floated ) hurt the team, but he made several nice throws ( his 23 yard pass to Grinter was a thing of beauty ), ending up with 241 passing yards and two touchdowns ( he would have had at least another 30-40 yards if not for having to suffer through five dropped passes ).  My, and many others hope is that at some point Phillips will let Hartline throw long, or at least longer than 20 yards.  UK needs to stretch the field a bit or the abysmal running game will continue to disappoint.
• Tim Masthay continues to impress.  His booming punts lead to many of 'Bama's drives starting deep in their own territory, and probably saved UK from giving up more points. 

The Worm Turns both Ways

Both teams certainly enjoyed some good fortune:

• UK fans got to see the opponents suffer from wanna-kill-the-kicker-itis ( two missed field goals ), that's six points right there. 
•  UK was also fortunate to recover a 'Bama fumble, just as the Tide were going in to score.
•  I also question the offensive pass interference call versus Julio Jones ( which negated a long gain ); the contact looked pretty benign to me. 

Conversely, Alabama enjoyed the gift that keeps on giving: 

• A four yard fumble recovery for a touchdown; it doesn't get any easier than that. 
• I consider UK's dropped passes another stroke of good fortune for 'Bama.
• UK NOT recovering 'Bama's fourth quarter fumble on the UK two yard line was most a most fortuitous break for the Crimson Tide.

Going Forward

Lost opportunities, but also a reason to believe, is what I take away from this game; when one considers that UK was a botched on-side kick away from potentially tying the game, one has to give credit to UK for playing with the #2 team in the country, on their turf.  But since the game was only lost by three points, it's the nature of the sport fan to say 'what if.'  Instead of asking myself that question, I choose to look ahead.  And looking ahead I see a schedule full of teams that aren't nearly as good as Alabama. 

It remains to be seen if UK will continue on their current growth arc, but if they do, I like their chances of winning at least three or four more games. 

That's what I take away from the 'Bama game.

Thanks for reading, congratulations Alabama, and Go 'Cats!

The Hilltoppers of WKU and the Wildcats of UK went at it last night in Kentucky's last out-of-conference game of the season.  The Toppers, and particularly Bobby Rainey, produced some spectacular runs that should give them hope for the future, and I was impressed by the clean football that my alma mater played, having only one penalty (a roughing the passer call that was pretty close).  Western is going in the right direction, even though they currently lack the kind of size and athleticism on the lines to compete against a league like the SEC.  Kudos to the Toppers for taking on all comers and playing hard, clean football.

It has been an article of faith among SEC football watchers that Kentucky needed to show some offensive competence during the easier out-of-conference schedule.  Up until this game, they have demonstrated very little offensively.  The offense was almost non-existent at Louisville, struggled to score against Norfolk State, and despite gaining significant yardage against MTSU, struggled mightily to score in the red zone.

Yesterday against Western Kentucky, Kentucky demonstrated some offensive prowess, particularly on the ground.  Unfortunately, the luster of this fact was reduced by two factors that should give 'Cat fans pause -- That most of the yards were gained in the second half, and that every other BCS team who has played Western gained more yardage than UK.  Mark Story looks at the "Glass half full, glass half empty" viewpoint of the WKU-UK game.  It would be nice to be able to say that UK has an SEC-worthy offense going into battle against an Alabama team that drubbed the highly-ranked Georgia Bulldogs yesterday in their home stadium, but unfortunately, we cannot.  UK looked competent against a lesser foe last night, but I doubt that performance against the relatively weak Hilltopper defense will cause any SEC defensive coordinators to lose sleep at the thought of playing the Wildcats.

Still, we have to grant that Hartline looked better than he has previously, and seems to be growing well into the position.  He showed a strong arm in a couple of vertical attempts that, even though they didn't connect, looked very respectable in both where the ball was thrown and the velocity it had on it.  'Cat fans have reason to be encouraged about Hartline, and Fidler looked like a competent backup in limited action against a lesser foe.

Overall, here is how I saw this game:

• Offensive line run blocking -- The run blocking looked better, but mostly in the second half.  What happened in the the first?
• Wide receivers -- The wide receivers, particularly DeMoreo Ford, did some better things than they have done so far, but not nearly enough to give anyone confidence that there are more real threats on the field than Dicky Lyons Jr.
• Special teams -- Field goal kicking seem competent now with Ryan Tydlacka, but it is only his first game and against a lesser foe.  The return game was excellent as usual, but kickoff coverage was really poor.  Yes, Bobby Rainey was a phenomenal runner, but is he SEC-quality?  I hardly think so.  If not, we could be in for trouble against tougher foes if we don't improve.  But on the plus side, Derrick Locke did return a kickoff for a touchdown, and Dicky Lyons barely missed doing the same with a punt return.
  
• Pass defense -- This was quite possibly the most dominant performance against the pass I have seen in college football in recent memory.  How do you hold a Spread Option team to 15 yards passing?  That's just unheard of, and it was primarily due to the utter domination of the Western offensive line by Kentucky's defensive line.  Yes, the UK defensive secondary was very good, but the 'Cats defensive front was always in the face of the Western quarterback, and got four sacks for thirty negative yards.
• Run defense -- After the Wildcats figured out that Rainey was a serious threat, they shut him down, but not before he gained almost 100 yards against a Kentucky defense that has been very stingy against the run (#5 in the nation) up until now.  It is a cause for worry.  If the 'Cats struggled with Rainey, what will Knowshon Moreno do?
• The passing game -- Kentucky was competent in the passing game, but the UK wide receivers still have issues with route running, catching the football and blocking.  The blocking was somewhat improved, but it's clear that UK has a long way to go to get the receivers up to SEC quality with the exception of Dickie Lyons Jr.  Brooks can't be all that pleased with what he saw yesterday, but it was a clear improvement over the last game.
• Pass blocking -- Pass blocking was excellent against Western, but their defensive front is hardly SEC quality.  Still, it was a good game for the line when it came to giving Hartline time to throw.  I consider them untested at this point, except against a decent Louisville defense, but I think they may be fine.
• The running game -- Impressive in the second half, but what happened in the first?  The running backs hit the holes, such as they were in the first half, hard, but the line simply wasn't getting the job done.  The 'Cats did a much better job in the second half, racking up impressive yardage and some long runs, and pretty much looking like the team we expected to see.  This game gives me some hope that we may be able to move the ball on the ground if we can get some kind of threat out of the passing game.

Overall, it was obviously a great defensive game for Kentucky, and a comptetent if unspectacular offensive game.  The coaching staff has greased a few squeeky wheels, and even though UK didn't look like the well-oiled offensive machine they have been in the last couple of years, the first signs of genuine offensive faculty showed up yesterday, and that is a very good thing.

On the injury front, Justin Jeffries has a serious knee injury and is very likely done for the season.  Even if it is more benign than many think, it is still going to sit him for a number of weeks, perhaps more than are left in the regular season.  I hope for the best, but fear the worst.  T.C. Drake also suffered an ankle sprain, but it doesn't look likely to keep him out more than a week.  Maurice Grinter served capably and even rather impressively in his stead.

On the good news side, it is looking more and more likely that Randall Cobb's high ankle sprain will heal in time for South Carolina, if not Alabama.  I expect to see Micah Johnson back at practice this week, and Ricky Lumpkin as well.

Next week we get the Crimson Tide, and the Elephants are coming of an impressive manhandling of the #3 team in the nation at their place.  As the Tide has an open date after the UK game, that places next week's tilt firmly in the "trap game" category for them.  We need to hope that they are still licking their wounds an enjoying the glow of defeating Georgia and vaulting to a top 5 national ranking (which they surely will) when the Wildcats bring their 4-0 record into Tuscaloosa next Saturday.

As unpredictable as the upcoming Kentucky versus Louisville game seems, I feel there are a few key battles that UK must win in order to secure a victory in the war.  Looking at positional comparisons, UK seems to have an edge all over the field, except at quarterback.  And of course U of L has the good fortune of hosting this years contest.  Other than those two areas, which are important, Kentucky has the competitive advantage.

Competitive advantage, though, is not what I'm looking for.  I'm looking for what UK has to do in order to win ... period.  As I see it, if Kentucky executes the following aspects of the game plan, they will spend Sunday evening happily retelling their family, friends, and media members how they beat the University of E - Ville.

Dominate with Defense Part 1 -- Bringin' the heat 

The number one key to this game is not Hunter Cantwell, the running game, the receivers, Rich Brooks, or Steve Kragthorpe, it's UK's defense.  Kentucky's defense must live up to the hype it has received from the coaching staff, and eternally optimistic folks like me.

UK defensive tackle Corey Peters has definite ideas about how he plans to attack:

"I think pressure is very important, especially in the first game of the season.  They're probably not going to be completely in sync right off the bat.  I think it's important to not let them get into that ( rhythm ).  I think it's very important to get pressure with the front four so we don't really have to blitz."

Hunter Cantwell must feel the Blue heat.  I want him to be reminded of the hell Dave Ragone went through in 2002 ( 14 - 39 for 193 yards ).  Ragone ( who was thought to be a candidate for the Heisman ) left that UK victory in dire need of medical attention, and thoroughly familiar with the alignment of the stars in the sky.  He was battered and beaten, and looked it, especially late in the game.  Young Mr. Cantwell needs a refresher course in what Myron Pryor, Braxton Kelley, Corey Peters, Micah Johnson and Company are capable of putting a quarterback through.  If not, Cantwell is certainly talented enough to find and hit his receivers with strikes, which then puts the pressure to perform on the secondary, which always makes me nervous ( flashes of '02 LSU dance through my head ). 

Kentucky's defensive line ( it's best unit ) must gain penetration on U of L's offensive line.  "Well, that's no problem," the uninformed UK fan may think.  But, Louisville is returning two very important cogs off of last years O-line: Center Eric Wood ( 1st Team All-Big East, he's also on the Outland and Remington Trophy watch lists ), and OT George Bussey, himself an Outland candidate.  The rest of the O-line is makeshift and inexperienced, but they aren't going to just roll-over by themselves, they're going to need a little help.

Since I question whether Cantwell will be taking many seven-step drops, scanning the field for open receivers, UK's line must pressure him quickly.  Hopefully the results are hastily thrown balls, which are much more likely to be off-target, and/or intercepted.  Give him time, or relax on the rush, and he's capable of executing the pin-point pass to a covered receiver. 

UK defensive coordinator Steve Brown sounded cautionary regarding pressuring Cantwell:

"It's always important to get pressure on the quarterback, but you can't go into a game just thinking, 'Get a lot of pressure,' because they do an excellent job of running draws.  You have to be smart, see what the tempo of the game is and at that point make a decision about how you want to attack him."

Coach, as long as you "attack him," I'm with you.

Dominate with Defense Part 2 -- Stopping the run

The U of L running game will be relying on one proven commodity in senior fullback Brock Bolen, and two less experienced, yet talented backs to run the ball ( Bilal Powell and Victor Anderson ).  Once again, UK's defense must gain penetration in order to 'meet and greet' the Cardinal ball carriers in the backfield.  All three of the U of L running backs are capable of having big games, with running back Powell ( 206 yards on 24 carries ) possessing the most speed of the three.  I highly doubt that new offensive coordinator Jeff Brohm will be sending his backs up the gut of UK's D-line, so ends Ventrell Jenkins and Jeremy Jarmon, along with strong and weakside linebackers Johnny Williams and Braxton Kelley will be responsible for plugging holes before they open. 

Containing Louisville's ground game does three things: It puts more pressure on Cantwell, it keeps U of L from controlling the clock, and most importantly, it makes Louisville's offense one-dimensional.  And a one-dimensional offense is more often than not an unhappy offense, because they tend to lose more than they win.  Just ask Barry Sanders.

Dominate with Defense Part 3 -- Embarrass the receivers

Cornerback Trevard Lindley had this thought when asked about covering U of L's young receivers:

"I think we've got to get on their receivers early so they don't have any confidence."

Louisville's starting receivers, Troy Pascley and Doug Beaumont have caught exactly zero passes at the collegiate level.  Sophomore tight end Pete Nochta ( also zero career receptions ) will be replacing the excellent Gary Barnidge ( now with the Carolina Panthers ).  Trevard Lindley, David Jones, Ashton Cobb and Marcus McClinton should be licking their chops in anticipation.  I'm not meaning to imply that they should be over-confident, one must always respect ones opponent, but they have an opportunity Sunday to dominate a group of inexperienced receivers.  Generally speaking, young receivers are trying to concentrate on running the right routes and being in the right spots, on time.  If UK's Lindley and Jones get physical ( no, not the Olivia Newton-John type 'physical' ), and jam U of L's wide-outs at the line of scrimmage, that should throw off the rhythm of the young receiving corps, and it will also make them think, instead of react.  And a thinking receiver, is usually a beat receiver. 

There will be no more of a greater mismatch on the field Sunday than UK's secondary versus U of L's receivers.  There simply will be no excuse for one of the Cards gettin' off like Harry Douglas did last year ( 13 catches for 223 yards ). 

Field Position

Field position is determined by three factors; punting, turnovers, and returns.  Last year U of L was overly generous early in the game by putting the ball into UK's hands, resulting in UK enjoying a short field; on the Kentucky kick-off U of L put the ball on the ground on their own 20 yard line, resulting in a UK field goal.  A few minutes later a Brian Brohm interception gave UK the ball on U of L's 18 yard line, resulting in a touchdown.  The best field position that U of L started with that lovely day was their own 37 yard line.  Hence, the importance of field position. 

Kentucky must hold on to the ball, and Tim Masthay must be consistent with his punts ( he allowed only a 6.0 yard return average last year ).  Masthay pinning U of L deep in their own territory will only make it more difficult for the young Louisville offense to put points on the board.  And if Kentucky's defense can hold them to short yardage in those situations, UK will be looking at getting the ball back with a short field themselves.

Masthay is the king of touchbacks, leading the SEC with 23 last year.  One never knows when a break down will occur in special teams coverage allowing a long return, so that fact cannot be overstated.  His continued strong-leg displays on kick-offs are vital to ensuring that U of L starts with the ball on their own 20, instead of up-field.

The return game is very unpredictable.  Dicky Lyons and Randall Cobb will be handling most of the return work.  My only anticipation is for them to not turn the ball over.  Anything more than that, such as a long return, is gravy on momma's taters.

Lones Seiber

Since I anticipate a close game, Seiber is deserving of his own heading. 

UK's kicker has not exactly enamored himself with Rich Brooks in fall practice.  He's been inconsistent; missing chip-shots, but making a 52 yard field goal.  Seiber performed well for most of last year, but he faltered at the end of the season, missing four of his last five attempts. 

Nothing is more frustrating to a coach ( ask Bobby Bowden ), a fan ( ask me ), or a teammate ( ask Peyton Manning ) than an unsteady kicker.  So in the interest of sanity in the Bluegrass, please Lones, be dead-eye.

Ball game givens

In my mind, there are a couple of aspects to UK's game that are givens:

• Mike Hartline will be 'uneven': It's the kids first start, on the road, versus U of L, and he has only one experienced receiver ( plus tight end Maurice Grinter ).  If he's anything more than 'uneven,'  color me shocked.  What he can't do though, is turn the ball over.  All I'm looking for at this point in the season is for him to not hurt the teams chances at winning.  If he can make the screen pass, and the 10-15 yard slant ( and the occasional deep ball ), do just enough to keep Louisville's defense from putting eight guys in the box, then he'll be doing his job.
• UK's running game: Tony Dixon, Derrick Locke, Alfonso Smith and Moncell Allen should collectively, have a big day.  They will be running against a defense that pined to be considered porous last year.  They will also be facing three new linebackers, one of which is a freshman.  There will be no excuses to be had if they fail to eat up chunks of yardage; they should control the clock, keeping U of L's defense on the field for extended periods of time.  By the fourth quarter their legs should still be fresh, and easy yards should be there for all to enjoy. 

Possible surprise  

I think it is very possible that junior tight end Maurice Grinter could have a big day.  He's experienced, has soft hands, can run well ( he was a basketball star at Fairdale ), and run over just about anyone who decides to take him on.  Grinter is extremely athletic, and is capable of turning a short pass into a long gain.  With an abundance of 'green' receivers, Joker Phillips may decide to utilize Grinter as a relief-valve for Hartline, as well as in goal-line situations as a change of pace from the running backs.   

End Result

I think this game is tilted toward a UK victory.  Kentucky's defense, if they perform up to expectations, should go a long way in securing victory. 

Final score -- UK -- 27  U of L -- 23

Happy Birthday

Sunday is my mother, Linda's, 29th birthday ( or so she says ).  So, Happy Birthday mom, I love ya!

Thanks for reading, Go 'Cats!, beat Louisville!

It seems everyone, from the good folks in Las Vegas, to the local and national media, are picking against the 'Cats in their upcoming epic battle for the Governor's Cup.  I suppose I can understand why the knee-jerk reaction is to pick Louisville to win this years contest.  After-all, the game is being played at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium, and UK will be starting an unproven quarterback.  Add the fact that Kentucky lacks experience at the receiver slot, except for the talented Dicky Lyons, and one can reasonably assess the game as a U of L lean.  But if one analyzes the contest and a few key personnel a bit closer, a converse conclusion can easily be arrived upon.

I like Eric Crawford.  The Courier-Journal sports columnist is generally not dogmatic, that is, he backs up his opinions with some form of fact.  As is true with anyone who puts out opinions three or four times a week, I don't always agree with his assertions, but I don't always agree with any writer's opinions 100% of the time.  

This past Sunday Mr. Crawford penned a fairly even-handed column in which he put forth his prediction for the UK v. U of L game, along with his reasoning for reaching his final conclusion.  His logic seems to follow that of most of the national media, as well as some local media members, concerning the game and its possible outcome.  Because of this I am going to use his column, and his points, as the basis for my rebuttal to those who opine that U of L will come out victorious Sunday evening.

His assertions begin with an historical perspective:

"And the biggest one ( reason ) is the way UK historically has played in its season opener under Rick Brooks, which is to say, not at all well."

"Brooks has never beaten U of L in an opener.  But more than that, in four years of playing the Cardinals in the first game, his UK teams have managed just one first-quarter touchdown.  And they weren't facing blockbuster U of L defenses, either." 

 Well, that's a shocker.  In Brooks' first two years on the job UK went a combined 6 - 17.  Those teams were ... I'm being kind here ... terrible.  Of course they didn't play well in the first game, they didn't play well in ANY game.  But, in Brooks third season UK went 3 - 8, and almost managed to upset the Cards, losing only 31 - 24.  If not for an Andre' Woodson fumble on the U of L two yard line, that game could have very easily swung the other way. 

There is no denying that Louisville has had, previous to last season, a far superior team over the last several years.  Using UK's poor performances in some of those games as a yardstick by which to measure this years game is flawed logic.  Actually it's not flawed logic, the assertion lacks logic altogether.  One has nothing whatsoever to do with the other.

He next confronts the all important ground game:

"For eight straight years, the winning team's top rusher out-gained the entire opposing team.  Rafael Little did that last year."

"Because both teams figure to use multiple backs, that streak might be in jeopardy.  But let's say that UK's defensive line -- it best unit -- stuffs the U of L run.  Now the Wildcats are free to try to control things with their own running game, something their talented backfield is capable of doing.  But they can do that only if they can keep U of L honest through the air, and that's a shaky proposition."

 Can UK keep Louisville's defense honest through the air?  Finally, a legitimate point from Mr. Crawford.

Considering U of L returns eight starters from last years porous defense, I think it's fair to evaluate the job they did last year pressuring the passer: Last season Louisville recorded 17 sacks in 12 games, to go along with seven interceptions ( they also allowed 25 touchdown passes, and 251 yards per game through the air ).  Not fear inspiring numbers, even if Mike Hartline has yet to start a single college game.  UK's experienced offensive line figures to be inundated with blitz's and stunts all day long, and their ability to handle the Cards pass rushers ( U of L will be starting three new linebackers ) will go a long way in determining how effective Hartline is in the vertical game.

To offset Hartline's inexperience I'm sure Rich Brooks and Joker Phillips will utilize the pass catching abilities of the running backs.  Tony Dixon, Alfonso Smith, and Derrick Locke should prove to be valuable 'relief valves' for a pressured Hartline.  Getting those guys loose in the secondary is of vital importance to UK's offensive attack, but if U of L proves quick to cover and swarm ( which they didn't do last year ) then Kentucky's offense could become one dimensional.  Which of course would be problematic for the boys in blue.

Kentucky's inexperienced receiving corps is the wild card in this game, as far as the 'Cats are concerned.  Hartline will be relying on receivers Dicky Lyons, Kyrus Lanxter, E.J. Adams, Eric Adeyemi, Eugene McCaskill, and Matt Roark to run the right routes, and make the catch.  Tight end Maurice Grinter will also be relied upon to make a few catches.  Grinter, who is a terrific athlete, has very soft hands and has demonstrated an ability to catch, and then make yards after the catch with his speed, and willingness to plow through defenders.  Back-up tight end T. C. Drake has only one career catch ( for a TD ), but will also be an important target for Hartline to aim for. 

Is hoping for UK's passing game to keep the defense honest through the air too much to ask for?  Not if the receivers are asked to run intermediate routes of 15 - 20 yards.  Hartline's accuracy with the deep ball is shaky at this point, but he can make the nice throw over the middle.  Couple that with the running backs catching balls in the flat, and Kentucky's passing game should be adequate.

So to answer Mr. Crawford's question, yes, I feel that Kentucky's passing game will be strong enough to open up the running lanes for the trio of stud backs ( quartet if one includes Moncell Allen ).  If U of L stacks eight men in the box in an attempt to stuff the run, they'll pay the price all day long.

Crawford then moves to Hunter Cantwell:

"The Cardinals, meanwhile, have one thing in the game that might be most important, experience at quarterback."

Louisville does boast a more experienced signal-caller.  The former walk-on and Paducah Tilghman grad, when called upon, has played well for the Cards over the last three years. My concern though, if I were a U of L fan, is who he has played against.

His career stats look like this: 92 - 157 for 1,419 yards, with 10 touchdowns, and seven interceptions.  He has four career starts.

Cantwell's finest hour came in Louisville's '05 Gator Bowl loss to Virginia Tech.  He threw for 216 yards and three touchdowns, earning game Co-MVP honors.  But other than that game, Cantwell's numbers have been achieved against less-than-stellar competition:

• 2005 versus a 5 - 6 UConn team: 16 - 25 for 271 yards and one touchdown.
• 2006 versus a 7 - 6 Kansas State team: 18 - 26 for 173 yards, one touchdown and one interception.
• 2006 versus a 7 - 6 Middle Tennessee State team: 17 - 32 for 340 yards, one touchdown and one interception. 

Those three games account for over half of Cantwell's career yardage ( 784 of 1,419 yards ). 

In all of those games he also had either Mike Bush ( UConn ),  Mario Urrutia ( all three ), Harry Douglas ( all three ), Kolby Smith ( K-State and MTSU ), or Joshua Tinch ( UConn ) running for him, or catching his passes.  This year he has no such weapons available.  With the dismissal of receiver JaJuan Spillman, the near tragic shooting of receiver Trent Guy ( he will probably play at some point this year ), and the broken foot of receiver Scott Long, Cantwell is left with zero receivers who have caught a pass in a college game ( and you thought UK had wide-out issues ).

I think Cantwell is a fine quarterback, but his accomplishments need to be put into perspective.

Crawford wraps up his analysis with this:

"UK has the better defense, and probably the better running game.  It should also have a special-teams advantage.  And unlike in past years, the speed factor is beginning to turn in UK's favor."

"But U of L has Cantwell, home field and perhaps more urgency, certainly more pressure to win."

"UK has ... probably the better running game." -- I nominate Eric for the 'Understatement of the Year Pulitzer'.  PROBABLY, he's right. 

Although U of L does boast Brock Bolen at running back ( 456 career yards and a 5.2 yards per carry average ), Kentucky's abundance of talented backs should prove to be a huge advantage, especially if the game is tight in the fourth quarter ( which I think it will be ).

Basically Crawford, as well as many others, are basing their prognostications on Cantwell's abilities, and U of L's "pressure to win."  The whole "pressure to win" contention is a bogus argument; I bet Ohio State felt "pressure to win" the last two national championship games, but they were disemboweled in both.  In my view, one reaches for "pressure to win" when one has no other bullets.  

If one notices, Crawford only mentions UK's defense as an afterthought.  That is a monumental mistake, in my opinion.  With UK's defensive line and linebackers pressuring Cantwell, and UK's superb secondary covering the inexperienced U of L receivers, I feel that Kentucky's defense will be the difference maker in this game.  Keep in mind,  it's difficult to throw from ones backside, and it's hard to throw to blanketed receivers. 

I can see only two areas where Louisville will have the advantage Sunday: at quarterback, and having home field advantage.  But remember, the quarterback advantage may be offset by UK's defensive pressure, and U of L's lack of any experience at the receiver spot.  There's not a lot Rich Brooks can do about the home field advantage.  But, knowing U of L fans proclivity to run for the exits when things seem bleak, if UK can race to a lead, the home field may be rendered moot.

Crawford ends with a prediction: 31 - 21, Louisville.  He offers up a disclaimer, though:

"But I make that pick with all of the confidence I have in my lottery numbers."

I agree.  Rivalry games, especially early season rivalry games, can be very unpredictable, and with the profusion of question marks masquerading as players, this years contest is laborious to handicap. 

My prediction?  Well, that's gonna have to wait until Friday.

Thanks for reading, 'Believe in Blue', and BEAT LOUISVILLE!