Kentucky Football: Return to Glory Part III -- The Schedule
This is the third of a multi-part series looking at the Kentucky football team's long-awaited rise from the cellar of the SEC to the middle of the pack, and the potential for turning last year's success into a tradition.
In Part I, we looked at the differences between the perception of the Wildcats prior to last year's 8-5 season compared to the final reality, and how that judgment has changed over the last 18 months or so. In Part II, we examined the SEC from the 50,000 foot view, and speculated a bit on how what Sport's Illustrated's Stewart Mandel called "the toughest conference in history" could impact the Gridiron Felines this year.
Today, we will take a look at the schedule, and try to get a feel for how it will impact the opportunities for the Wildcats to succeed. This part, like the others so far, will deal more with generalities than specifics. We will drill down to the detail later in this series.
The games highlighted in yellow above would seem to be "must wins" for Kentucky. Typically, schools schedule in two or three "easy" games, which the team is expected to win every year. This year is no different, and if anything, handling the "must wins" are a critical component to a follow-on bowl appearance.
Games highlighted in red above figure to be losses, either due to the strength of the opposition, or a combination of opponent strength and game location. Florida and LSU figure to be very strong this year, and are likely sure to beat UK even at home. Georgia is not as strong as either LSU or Florida, but they get us in Athens, which is a very tough place to win, so I figure it as a likely loss.
So a quick breakdown at this point looks like 3 sure wins and 3 sure losses. So the rest of the schedule is where our season will be made or broken, and those games are highlighted in blue. Now, a quick glance at the blue games reveals what looks like only one or two good chances at victory – October 27th against what is expected to be a fairly weak MSU team at commonwealth, and November 10th at traditional cellar-dweller Vanderbilt, although they, like Kentucky, are expected to be much better than normal this year. If we win both the Vanderbilt and MSU games, we are looking at 5 wins and 3 losses, best case.
On it's face, victories against Louisville, Tennessee, South Carolina or Arkansas seem unlikely. Louisville is a top 10 ranked opponent (but they do have a new coach, which makes an upset slightly more likely), and Tennessee has had our number since the Model T was-state-of-the art. We get Arkansas, a better program than us, in Fayetteville, and the Ol' Ball Coach and his Gamecocks in Columbia.
Obviously, none of these games represent easy victories, but if we are to return our program to some semblance of prominence, we must find a way to win at least two of these games. Nobody said success in the SEC was easy, and this year, it figures to be even tougher than usual.
The best candidates for upset appear to be Tennessee, who is still recovering from a disastrous season two years ago, and South Carolina, who we always seem to play tough and who is at least a notch below the SEC's traditional powers. But make no mistake, either one would be a tall order, and note that I am calling for not one big upset this year, but two.
For those of us who wring our hands at the mere mention of our SEC schedule this year, I simply say this – if we are ever to be the best, we must beat the best. I think beating the best is unlikely this year, so we will have to settle for the second or third best, which in the SEC still means a top 25 program.
Tough? Yes. Unlikely? Maybe. Impossible? No way. The song says "When you're going through Hell, keep on going ... You might get out before the Devil even knows you're there." The Football Wildcats will go through Hell this year. Here's to them getting out with the most impressive season in many years.
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13 comments
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Frightening and a little Frustrating
Its also extremely frustrating... we have the best team the university has seen in years and a 4-8 record is a very real possibility. At times like this, I often wonder how a team is ever supposed to even aspire to "middle of the road" in the SEC.
by chirop1 on Jun 30, 2007 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There is ...
Let's git 'er done.
by Truzenzuzex on Jun 30, 2007 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
by tiger85 on Jun 30, 2007 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We can do it
by davw83 on Jun 30, 2007 12:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I still think 8-5 is real possibility if not more.
I would put Mississippi St. in the "yellow" column as a must-win. And even that is not a walk in the park as Miss. St. arguably could have beaten last two times as we barely squeaked by them a year ago even with our best team.
I think Florida and Louisville are winnable games too. We usually play the Gators tough and we get 'em at home this year.
But Gators' fans made a very good point on the last UF site I vistited. They have a bye-week before playing us while we have to play probably the most-talented team in the SEC the LSU Tigers. And we all know what LSU did to us last year. If Florida had played a game instead of having that bye week I would have felt much better about that game than I currently do.
As for Louisville game we have to survive the 1st quarter. We didn't last year and got stomped. If we get out of that in good shape we have a legitimate shot at beating them. If we don't it will be another Louisville blowout win.
The last time UK beat UL back in 2002 we got in Dave Ragone's face every time he threw the football. Since that game though we haven't even gotten close to UL's quarterbacks and they had little trouble in picking us a part. If we can repeat that performance we have a shot.
South Carolina as always is very key to our season. We UK fans keep bragging that we can win that game only to be disappointed year after year after year. Sadly that will most likely be the case again, mostly because they have Spurrier...
Actually I think our best chance to pull off an upset is the Arkansas game. Yes I know Arkansas is at home but they are usually a one-dimensional team that loves to run the football at least 2/3 of the time. If we can somehow stop their running attack and make Arkansas beat us with the pass I think we can do pull it off.
Be careful at Vanderbilt. The Commodores are always tough at home and have I think 17 returning starters. But if we play Vandy the way we did last year I think we'll be OK.
I actually think LSU game will be much closer than most people think. LSU does not play nearly as well on the road as they do at home. Yes they creamed us 49-0 year but we beat UGA last year after the Dawgs crushed us 45-13 or something similar the year before.
The only chance we have at beating UGA for a second straight year will be to play turnover free football and stuff their run to force Stafford to beat us. But UGA will be very angry at us for beating them last year and this game could very well be a huge blowout win for the Dawgs if we're not careful.
Tennessee game to me is the game of the year. Some folks think they are good and some say they are not. We should beaten Tennessee last year and would have if we hadn't self-destructed in the end zone and missed those two chip shot field goals. This year I'm 50/50 on this game.
And most of all we have to beat Eastern Kentucky, Kent State, and Florida Atlantic. We can't have another La-Monroe like performance against any of those teams.
I know I should have done this in chronological order but I have to wrap this up right now.
GO 'CATS! WE BELIEVE! SHOCK THE WORLD IN 2007!
by ukcatfan191 on Jul 1, 2007 1:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Outstanding analysis ...
If we play them very close in the first quarter, our odds of pulling the upset go up dramatically.
I am with you on UT. The upside is, we have them at Commonwealth. The downside is, they own us lock, stock and Beer-barrel. Just a fact. If any team can look at us and say "Who's your daddy?", it's Tennessee.
That's why beating them would be sweet, indeed, maybe even sweeter than upsetting Louisville. I agree, that one is the game of the year.
by Truzenzuzex on Jul 1, 2007 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Winning 8 or 9 on that schedule is a Top 20
by abud4me on Jul 1, 2007 6:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If we won ten games ...
by Truzenzuzex on Jul 1, 2007 8:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A strong start...
by Gatorpilot on Jul 1, 2007 12:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sooner or later ...
If not now, when?
by Truzenzuzex on Jul 1, 2007 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think...
by Gatorpilot on Jul 1, 2007 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Gatorpilot; i like you a lot......
The game I'd be most worried about Gatorpilot is your game at LSU. LSU is a fantastic team and are almost unbeaten in Baton Rouge especially in night games. I think if you can get by them an undefeated season is not out of the question for your Gators, even with the SEC as tough as it is.
I also like the way your administration always steps up at the plate every time your football or basketball Gators are in need of something.
And your Gators run a very clean program to boot.
Good luck to your Gators next year, except when they play our U of Kentucky Wildcats!
by ukcatfan191 on Jul 1, 2007 9:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks...
LSU always scares me. Last year when they came to play at the Swamp I was down in the endzone right by the field when Jamarcus Russell was warming up. (This was about an hour before the game.) As he was tossing the ball around (maybe 20 feet away from me at ground level) his O-line came up and starting working with him, snapping the ball, etc. The sight of those guys just about made me freeze in my tracks. They are all so big, so fast, so athletic! I kept reminding myself that our Gators were just as big (okay, not QUITE as big, but close.)
Winning in BR is always tough, and at night I agree, almost impossible. About the same odds for opposing teams in the Swamp. We'll be lucky to leave Louisiana with a W.
by Gatorpilot on Jul 2, 2007 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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