FanPost

NCAA Basketball: NCAA Tournament log5 Analysis

SB Nation

Just like last week, this is the log5 predictor for the NCAA Tournament, and again, UK is a huge favorite. I realize 33% isn't 76%, but the NCAA tournament is six rounds, not four, and, at any rate, a one-in-three chance of doing something that hasn't been done in almost forty years is pretty impressive, anyway. As always, enjoy if you want. Also, thanks everyone for the positive feedback from last week. It's a pleasure to be part of this community.

Midwest Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion
1 Kentucky 97.92% 89.71% 81.41% 67.94% 45.94% 33.69%
2 Kansas 83.63% 48.58% 26.91% 7.43% 2.52% 0.99%
3 Notre Dame 87.54% 53.78% 29.36% 8.21% 2.82% 1.12%
4 Maryland 61.77% 30.98% 4.39% 1.55% 0.32% 0.08%
5 West Virginia 62.80% 37.08% 6.01% 2.39% 0.56% 0.15%
6 Butler 47.80% 20.50% 8.68% 1.78% 0.44% 0.13%
7 Wichita State 73.17% 39.26% 20.99% 5.53% 1.78% 0.67%
8 Cincinnati 56.58% 6.09% 3.08% 1.07% 0.21% 0.05%
9 Purdue 43.42% 3.78% 1.67% 0.49% 0.08% 0.02%
10 Indiana 26.83% 8.45% 2.55% 0.35% 0.06% 0.01%
11 Texas 52.20% 23.42% 10.40% 2.25% 0.59% 0.18%
12 Buffalo 37.20% 17.20% 1.90% 0.54% 0.09% 0.02%
13 Valparaiso 38.23% 14.74% 1.46% 0.37% 0.05% 0.01%
14 Northeastern 12.46% 2.30% 0.36% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
15 New Mexico St. 16.37% 3.71% 0.75% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
16 Hampton 0.28% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Manhattan 1.80% 0.40% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
West Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion
1 Wisconsin 95.56% 81.90% 64.45% 36.51% 17.51% 10.56%
2 Arizona 97.70% 81.33% 65.82% 42.07% 21.73% 13.97%
3 Baylor 77.25% 49.50% 15.36% 5.92% 1.70% 0.63%
4 North Carolina 79.30% 54.33% 18.84% 6.58% 1.86% 0.69%
5 Arkansas 73.09% 31.65% 7.84% 1.95% 0.39% 0.10%
6 Xavier 55.24% 24.68% 5.53% 1.60% 0.33% 0.09%
7 VCU 44.39% 7.42% 3.27% 0.89% 0.17% 0.04%
8 Oregon 47.30% 7.77% 3.01% 0.61% 0.10% 0.02%
9 Oklahoma State 52.70% 9.36% 3.85% 0.84% 0.14% 0.03%
10 Ohio State 55.61% 11.01% 5.45% 1.71% 0.39% 0.12%
11 BYU 27.03% 11.49% 2.41% 0.65% 0.13% 0.03%
11 Ole Miss 17.73% 6.47% 1.11% 0.25% 0.04% 0.01%
12 Wofford 26.91% 6.24% 0.75% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00%
13 Harvard 20.70% 7.78% 1.10% 0.15% 0.02% 0.00%
14 Georgia State 22.75% 7.86% 1.02% 0.18% 0.02% 0.00%
15 Texas Southern 2.30% 0.24% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Coastal Carolina 4.44% 0.97% 0.16% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
East Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion
1 Villanova 96.75% 81.55% 60.18% 35.85% 22.99% 9.96%
2 Virginia 95.25% 75.37% 55.82% 33.82% 21.98% 9.72%
3 Oklahoma 89.09% 61.23% 24.27% 10.43% 4.90% 1.38%
4 Louisville 78.70% 37.33% 11.68% 3.93% 1.46% 0.30%
5 UNI 84.89% 54.15% 20.63% 8.44% 3.79% 1.00%
6 Providence 56.68% 22.03% 5.77% 1.66% 0.53% 0.09%
7 Michigan State 61.72% 16.50% 7.96% 2.73% 1.03% 0.22%
8 NC State 51.68% 9.50% 3.47% 0.84% 0.23% 0.03%
9 LSU 48.32% 8.45% 2.96% 0.69% 0.18% 0.02%
10 Georgia 38.28% 7.35% 2.73% 0.69% 0.19% 0.03%
11 Boise State 21.56% 7.22% 1.58% 0.38% 0.10% 0.01%
11 Dayton 21.76% 7.19% 1.55% 0.37% 0.10% 0.01%
12 Wyoming 15.11% 3.92% 0.46% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
13 UC Irvine 21.30% 4.60% 0.57% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
14 Albany 10.91% 2.33% 0.20% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
15 Belmont 4.75% 0.78% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Lafayette 3.25% 0.50% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
South Second Round Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four Finals Champion
1 Duke 92.99% 70.77% 45.04% 26.18% 12.53% 4.43%
2 Gonzaga 93.83% 70.49% 48.68% 29.06% 14.47% 5.37%
3 Iowa State 86.46% 53.87% 23.82% 10.99% 4.02% 1.04%
4 Georgetown 83.57% 33.73% 12.80% 4.85% 1.40% 0.28%
5 Utah 73.96% 51.99% 27.72% 14.86% 6.44% 2.02%
6 SMU 62.47% 29.69% 11.01% 4.26% 1.28% 0.26%
7 Iowa 55.28% 16.70% 7.59% 2.74% 0.76% 0.14%
8 San Diego State 57.73% 17.41% 6.89% 2.36% 0.61% 0.11%
9 St. John's 42.27% 10.41% 3.41% 0.95% 0.20% 0.03%
10 Davidson 44.72% 11.78% 4.76% 1.50% 0.36% 0.06%
11 UCLA 37.53% 13.60% 3.65% 1.02% 0.21% 0.03%
12 S.F. Austin 26.04% 12.22% 3.70% 1.11% 0.25% 0.04%
13 Eastern Washington 16.43% 2.06% 0.24% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
14 UAB 13.54% 2.84% 0.35% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
15 North Dakota State 6.17% 1.03% 0.14% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
16 North Florida 4.97% 1.10% 0.16% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Robert Morris 2.03% 0.31% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%