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NIT Log5

Meant to have this up sooner but real life got in the way. Enjoy if you're interested. Note that this isn't adjusted for home-court and the standard disclaimer that this is a table of probabilities, not predictions.

Seed Pyth. Second Round Quarter-Finals Semi-Finals Finals Champion
1 Virginia 87.59% 92.92% 68.87% 41.13% 25.44% 16.40%
3 Iowa 87.24% 78.05% 52.79% 30.02% 18.35% 11.70%
2 Baylor 84.40% 82.02% 53.75% 31.81% 20.07% 10.21%
1 Kentucky 83.25% 79.97% 51.53% 28.88% 17.66% 8.62%
3 Denver 85.52% 68.98% 44.00% 26.69% 13.86% 8.37%
1 Southern Miss. 80.81% 84.04% 56.44% 33.44% 16.95% 7.59%
4 Stanford 83.07% 62.97% 39.14% 20.74% 9.85% 5.51%
2 Maryland 80.93% 75.69% 36.27% 19.13% 8.42% 4.42%
2 Tennessee 77.30% 70.73% 38.34% 20.34% 9.27% 3.69%
1 Alabama 78.81% 81.41% 39.08% 18.09% 7.41% 3.65%
4 Providence 77.62% 72.13% 34.34% 16.29% 8.56% 3.44%
7 Stony Brook 79.27% 60.05% 25.58% 11.09% 5.22% 2.61%
3 BYU 76.04% 55.52% 30.20% 15.51% 6.81% 2.60%
6 Detroit 74.72% 51.99% 21.73% 9.75% 4.74% 1.73%
5 Louisiana Tech 70.55% 59.64% 25.31% 11.51% 4.30% 1.37%
3 Arizona St. 73.19% 48.01% 19.23% 8.26% 3.86% 1.34%
4 Saint Joseph's 74.20% 60.16% 19.77% 7.64% 3.07% 1.32%
6 Washington 71.77% 44.48% 21.82% 10.06% 3.89% 1.29%
5 Stephen F. Austin 74.26% 37.03% 18.49% 7.45% 2.62% 1.13%
6 Ohio 72.65% 31.02% 14.02% 5.80% 1.94% 0.80%
2 UMass 71.78% 39.95% 13.45% 4.62% 1.73% 0.69%
4 Florida St. 61.85% 40.36% 13.74% 4.98% 1.44% 0.35%
5 St. John's 65.57% 39.84% 10.07% 3.00% 0.93% 0.31%
6 Indiana St. 65.78% 21.95% 8.18% 2.35% 0.73% 0.25%
7 Mercer 58.49% 29.27% 9.64% 3.16% 0.83% 0.18%
5 Charlotte 57.27% 27.87% 7.63% 2.03% 0.62% 0.13%
8 Robert Morris 55.46% 20.03% 6.51% 1.64% 0.48% 0.09%
7 Niagara 57.68% 24.31% 5.70% 1.54% 0.32% 0.09%
7 Long Beach St. 54.25% 17.98% 5.29% 1.35% 0.38% 0.07%
8 Charleston Southern 44.44% 15.96% 4.51% 1.00% 0.17% 0.02%
8 Northeastern 45.93% 18.59% 3.29% 0.57% 0.08% 0.02%
8 Norfolk St. 34.98% 7.08% 1.29% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%

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