Meant to have this up sooner but real life got in the way. Enjoy if you're interested. Note that this isn't adjusted for home-court and the standard disclaimer that this is a table of probabilities, not predictions.
| Seed | Pyth. | Second Round | Quarter-Finals | Semi-Finals | Finals | Champion | |
| 1 | Virginia | 87.59% | 92.92% | 68.87% | 41.13% | 25.44% | 16.40% |
| 3 | Iowa | 87.24% | 78.05% | 52.79% | 30.02% | 18.35% | 11.70% |
| 2 | Baylor | 84.40% | 82.02% | 53.75% | 31.81% | 20.07% | 10.21% |
| 1 | Kentucky | 83.25% | 79.97% | 51.53% | 28.88% | 17.66% | 8.62% |
| 3 | Denver | 85.52% | 68.98% | 44.00% | 26.69% | 13.86% | 8.37% |
| 1 | Southern Miss. | 80.81% | 84.04% | 56.44% | 33.44% | 16.95% | 7.59% |
| 4 | Stanford | 83.07% | 62.97% | 39.14% | 20.74% | 9.85% | 5.51% |
| 2 | Maryland | 80.93% | 75.69% | 36.27% | 19.13% | 8.42% | 4.42% |
| 2 | Tennessee | 77.30% | 70.73% | 38.34% | 20.34% | 9.27% | 3.69% |
| 1 | Alabama | 78.81% | 81.41% | 39.08% | 18.09% | 7.41% | 3.65% |
| 4 | Providence | 77.62% | 72.13% | 34.34% | 16.29% | 8.56% | 3.44% |
| 7 | Stony Brook | 79.27% | 60.05% | 25.58% | 11.09% | 5.22% | 2.61% |
| 3 | BYU | 76.04% | 55.52% | 30.20% | 15.51% | 6.81% | 2.60% |
| 6 | Detroit | 74.72% | 51.99% | 21.73% | 9.75% | 4.74% | 1.73% |
| 5 | Louisiana Tech | 70.55% | 59.64% | 25.31% | 11.51% | 4.30% | 1.37% |
| 3 | Arizona St. | 73.19% | 48.01% | 19.23% | 8.26% | 3.86% | 1.34% |
| 4 | Saint Joseph's | 74.20% | 60.16% | 19.77% | 7.64% | 3.07% | 1.32% |
| 6 | Washington | 71.77% | 44.48% | 21.82% | 10.06% | 3.89% | 1.29% |
| 5 | Stephen F. Austin | 74.26% | 37.03% | 18.49% | 7.45% | 2.62% | 1.13% |
| 6 | Ohio | 72.65% | 31.02% | 14.02% | 5.80% | 1.94% | 0.80% |
| 2 | UMass | 71.78% | 39.95% | 13.45% | 4.62% | 1.73% | 0.69% |
| 4 | Florida St. | 61.85% | 40.36% | 13.74% | 4.98% | 1.44% | 0.35% |
| 5 | St. John's | 65.57% | 39.84% | 10.07% | 3.00% | 0.93% | 0.31% |
| 6 | Indiana St. | 65.78% | 21.95% | 8.18% | 2.35% | 0.73% | 0.25% |
| 7 | Mercer | 58.49% | 29.27% | 9.64% | 3.16% | 0.83% | 0.18% |
| 5 | Charlotte | 57.27% | 27.87% | 7.63% | 2.03% | 0.62% | 0.13% |
| 8 | Robert Morris | 55.46% | 20.03% | 6.51% | 1.64% | 0.48% | 0.09% |
| 7 | Niagara | 57.68% | 24.31% | 5.70% | 1.54% | 0.32% | 0.09% |
| 7 | Long Beach St. | 54.25% | 17.98% | 5.29% | 1.35% | 0.38% | 0.07% |
| 8 | Charleston Southern | 44.44% | 15.96% | 4.51% | 1.00% | 0.17% | 0.02% |
| 8 | Northeastern | 45.93% | 18.59% | 3.29% | 0.57% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 8 | Norfolk St. | 34.98% | 7.08% | 1.29% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |


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