FanPost

SEC Tournament Log5

Kevin C. Cox

In keeping with my annual tradition, here's the log5 calculator for the SEC Tournament. Unsurprisingly, Florida is the favorite. Ken Pomeroy's ratings have the Gators at #1 in the country as of this morning, so I guess that makes sense. What is a little surprising, at least to me, is that at 75% to win, Florida is a heavier favorite than last year's UK team (67%) which was considered by most people to be the country's best team heading into the postseason. The Gators' projected win probability is nearly double that of the 2010 UK team (42%), which was also widely thought of as the best team in the nation prior to the SEC Tournament. Anyway, enjoy if you're interested in this sort of thing. Pythagorean Win Percentages are taken from Ken Pomeroy's site. If you don't know what log5 is or how it's calculated, there's a really good article and explanation here. As always, keep in mind these are probabilities and not predictions.

Seed Pyth. Second Round Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals Champion
Florida 1 0.9767 100.00% 100.00% 95.06% 87.71% 76.00%
Missouri 6 0.8998 100.00% 84.08% 53.25% 34.45% 8.42%
Kentucky 2 0.8592 100.00% 100.00% 68.82% 32.82% 6.27%
Ole Miss 3 0.8387 100.00% 100.00% 42.52% 22.06% 3.79%
Alabama 4 0.7737 100.00% 100.00% 52.54% 5.35% 1.92%
Tennessee 5 0.7896 100.00% 86.98% 45.51% 4.98% 1.89%
Arkansas 7 0.7607 100.00% 58.69% 20.10% 6.57% 0.80%
Vanderbilt 10 0.6911 100.00% 41.31% 11.08% 2.84% 0.27%
Georgia 8 0.6888 100.00% 50.80% 2.55% 0.99% 0.27%
LSU 9 0.6819 100.00% 49.20% 2.39% 0.92% 0.24%
Texas A&M 11 0.6763 72.96% 13.77% 3.95% 1.22% 0.11%
South Carolina 12 0.4042 65.55% 10.04% 1.66% 0.04% 0.00%
Auburn 14 0.4364 27.04% 2.15% 0.28% 0.04% 0.00%
Mississippi State 13 0.2628 34.45% 2.99% 0.28% 0.00% 0.00%

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