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SEC Men's Basketball: SEC Tournament Log5


These are log5 projections for next week's SEC Tournament. As expected, Kentucky is the overwhelming favorite to win the whole thing (The Wildcats are 68.53% to win the championship, a little better than 3 to 1 odds). Also unsurprisingly, Vanderbilt has the second best survival rating for the tournament at 13.36%. Tennessee somehow ended up with the two-seed but the numbers say they're the fifth-most likely to win it, although their chances (3.77%) are only marginally worse than the chances of Alabama winning four games in four days (3.94%). Pythagorean Win Percentages for the calculations are taken from Ken Pomeroy's most wonderful hoops site. If you don't know what log5 is or how it's calculated, there's a really good article and explanation here. This is the fourth year I've done the log5 calculator for the SECT, and other than the year when Georgia shocked everyone and won the thing, it's been fairly accurate. Anyway, enjoy if you're interested. I'll have one next week for the NCAA tournament.

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Win % Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals Champion
Kentucky 1 0.9728 100.00% 95.04% 78.89% 68.53%
Vandy 3 0.8835 100.00% 75.99% 53.96% 13.36%
Florida 4 0.8899 100.00% 60.19% 12.97% 7.93%
Alabama 5 0.8661 85.82% 38.15% 7.02% 3.94%
Tennessee 2 0.7870 100.00% 65.04% 25.56% 3.77%
Miss. St. 6 0.7388 61.39% 16.68% 8.05% 0.96%
Ole Miss 7 0.7110 66.77% 26.69% 8.17% 0.87%
Georgia 11 0.6401 38.61% 7.33% 2.73% 0.22%
LSU 8 0.6693 54.60% 2.92% 0.65% 0.19%
Arkansas 9 0.6273 45.40% 2.04% 0.39% 0.10%
Auburn 10 0.5504 33.23% 8.27% 1.54% 0.09%
USC 12 0.5166 14.18% 1.66% 0.08% 0.01%
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