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NCAA Tournament Log5

As I promised last week, here's a log5 calculator for the NCAA tournament. This one's a lot more surprising than that one, at least, I was surprised. The most likely champ by these numbers is, predictably enough, Kentucky. Log5 gives the Cats a 19.38% shot to cut down the nets in the Superdome three weeks from tonight. However, the second-most likely champion is.... Ohio State, at 19.07%. This doesn't jibe with the rankings or the seedings, but it does jibe perfectly with the Pomeroy rankings, which have the Buckeyes right behind Kentucky at the top. Also interesting is that, of the top seeds, only Michigan State and Kentucky are the log5 favorites to represent their regions in the Final Four, along with #2 seeds Ohio State and Kansas.

Midwest Region:

Second Round Sweet Sixteen Regional Finals Final Four National Finals Champion
1 North Carolina 89.78% 66.94% 50.10% 28.68% 13.88% 6.64%
16 Lamar 6.29% 1.70% 0.48% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
16 Vermont 3.93% 0.88% 0.21% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Creighton 46.14% 13.34% 6.50% 2.04% 0.49% 0.12%
9 Alabama 53.86% 17.14% 9.00% 3.10% 0.84% 0.22%
5 Temple 49.70% 24.07% 7.60% 2.31% 0.54% 0.12%
12 South Florida 13.80% 5.36% 1.29% 0.30% 0.05% 0.01%
12 California 36.50% 19.71% 7.17% 2.52% 0.69% 0.19%
4 Michigan 70.16% 40.02% 15.28% 5.65% 1.65% 0.47%
13 Ohio 29.84% 10.83% 2.37% 0.50% 0.08% 0.01%
3 San Diego St. 45.99% 13.58% 3.15% 0.92% 0.17% 0.03%
14 N.C. State 54.01% 17.79% 4.61% 1.49% 0.32% 0.07%
6 Georgetown 59.42% 42.77% 18.71% 9.68% 3.67% 1.37%
11 Belmont 40.58% 25.86% 9.16% 3.94% 1.18% 0.35%
7 St. Mary's 39.23% 9.00% 3.51% 1.15% 0.25% 0.05%
10 Purdue 60.77% 18.54% 9.16% 3.86% 1.13% 0.33%
2 Kansas 91.82% 70.56% 51.30% 33.70% 17.59% 9.10%
15 Detroit 8.18% 1.90% 0.39% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%

East Region

1 Syracuse 90.57% 65.32% 37.06% 17.53% 9.59% 4.44%
16 UNC-Asheville 9.43% 2.15% 0.28% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Kansas St. 71.94% 26.80% 10.62% 3.42% 1.30% 0.39%
9 Southern Miss. 28.06% 5.73% 1.22% 0.21% 0.04% 0.01%
4 Vanderbilt 87.05% 58.63% 34.05% 16.29% 9.01% 4.22%
13 Harvard 12.95% 3.16% 0.60% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00%
5 Wisconsin 67.21% 28.93% 13.35% 4.94% 2.14% 0.76%
12 Montana 32.79% 9.28% 2.83% 0.68% 0.19% 0.04%
3 Cincinnati 47.57% 23.34% 5.60% 1.79% 0.58% 0.15%
14 Texas 52.43% 26.97% 6.89% 2.34% 0.81% 0.22%
6 Florida St. 66.12% 36.55% 10.39% 3.91% 1.49% 0.46%
11 St. Bonaventure 33.88% 13.15% 2.38% 0.57% 0.14% 0.03%
7 Gonzaga 56.09% 11.00% 5.27% 1.67% 0.54% 0.14%
10 W. Virginia 43.91% 7.22% 3.03% 0.81% 0.22% 0.05%
2 Ohio St. 95.04% 80.65% 66.22% 45.69% 31.36% 19.07%
15 Loyola (Md.) 4.96% 1.13% 0.22% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%

West Region

1 Michigan St. 96.34% 65.08% 53.05% 37.53% 22.54% 13.27%
16 Long Island 3.66% 0.27% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Memphis 58.73% 22.15% 15.77% 9.12% 4.26% 1.91%
9 St. Louis 41.27% 12.50% 7.96% 3.94% 1.53% 0.57%
4 Louisville 71.37% 46.74% 13.72% 6.10% 2.09% 0.68%
13 Davidson 28.63% 12.44% 1.82% 0.46% 0.08% 0.01%
5 New Mexico 39.24% 13.64% 1.99% 0.50% 0.09% 0.02%
12 Long Beach St. 60.76% 27.18% 5.64% 1.91% 0.48% 0.11%
6 Murray St. 60.57% 23.46% 6.21% 1.43% 0.32% 0.07%
11 Colorado St. 39.43% 11.61% 2.23% 0.37% 0.06% 0.01%
3 Marquette 69.64% 49.27% 20.73% 7.62% 2.75% 0.94%
14 BYU 16.40% 8.64% 2.19% 0.48% 0.10% 0.02%
14 Iona 13.96% 7.02% 1.66% 0.34% 0.07% 0.01%
7 Florida 55.39% 20.67% 12.28% 4.43% 1.57% 0.52%
10 Virginia 44.61% 14.58% 7.93% 2.51% 0.78% 0.23%
2 Missouri 96.20% 64.46% 46.75% 23.26% 11.37% 5.37%
15 Norfolk St. 3.80% 0.28% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

South Region

1 Kentucky 97.93% 82.38% 59.11% 47.45% 31.11% 19.38%
16 WKU 1.66% 0.20% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Miss. Valley St. 0.41% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 Iowa St. 54.79% 10.16% 3.60% 1.68% 0.51% 0.14%
9 Connecticut 45.21% 7.24% 2.27% 0.96% 0.25% 0.06%
4 Indiana 77.79% 40.29% 14.41% 9.06% 4.06% 1.67%
13 New Mexico St. 22.21% 5.50% 0.84% 0.28% 0.06% 0.01%
5 Wichita St. 80.28% 47.88% 18.65% 12.33% 5.96% 2.66%
12 VCU 19.72% 6.32% 1.11% 0.42% 0.10% 0.02%
3 Baylor 72.82% 50.57% 31.51% 10.87% 4.43% 1.65%
14 San Diego St. 27.18% 12.63% 4.96% 0.86% 0.18% 0.03%
6 UNLV 66.38% 27.66% 13.26% 3.04% 0.85% 0.21%
11 Colorado 33.62% 9.14% 2.97% 0.40% 0.07% 0.01%
7 Notre Dame 55.80% 22.77% 9.33% 1.88% 0.46% 0.10%
10 Xavier 44.20% 15.77% 5.64% 0.95% 0.20% 0.04%
2 Duke 77.62% 52.89% 29.90% 9.50% 3.59% 1.23%
15 Lehigh 22.38% 8.56% 2.44% 0.31% 0.05% 0.01%

Play-in round:

16 Lamar 56.17%
16 Vermont 43.83%
12 South Florida 34.54%
12 Clemson 65.46%
14 BYU 52.37%
14 Iona 47.63%
16 WKU 66.95%
16 Miss. Valley St. 33.05%

As always, Pythagorean win percentages are taken from Pomeroy's site. An explanation of the log5 formula can be found here.

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