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DSS: Kentucky vs Florida

Click here for an explanation of how the DSS is charted and what the ratings and box score represent.

Another game, another dominating performance by the Kentucky Wildcats. Wins over Louisville, North Carolina, and Tennessee are always fun, but for my money no victory brings more visceral pleasure than blowing out Florida. The main objective in shutting down Florida's offense is pretty obvious - stop their 3 point shooting, and the Gators shot their worst 3pt accuracy of the season against the Cats. That is not to say that UK played excellent 3pt defense, though it was pretty good (more on this a bit later).

From a defensive standpoint, this game was kind of a mixed bag and emblematic of what the Cats have done in conference play this year. On the good side the Cats were tough on shots and refused to send Florida to the free throw line. On the bad, they didn't force many turnovers and did a poor job grabbing defensive rebounds. That's been the story in conference play this season although the lack of rebounds and forced turnovers hasn't stopped UK from putting up the best Defensive Efficiency in the SEC. If there is one place where the Cats can really improve to cement their place as the best team in America though, it's defensive rebounding.

Star-divide

Kentucky Defense Box Score: Kentucky vs Florida
Name Min FGM FGA 3PTM 3PTA FTM FTA Def Rb Blocks TO Steals Points Fouls
T. Jones 19 2.5 5.5 0 2 0 2 4 1 1 0 5 2
M. Kidd-Gilchrist 39 1.5 3.5 0 1 4 6 9 0 3 0 7 3
A. Davis 36 4.5 18 0 5 0 0 5 4 1 2 9 1
D. Lamb 31 2 3 1 2 0 0 3 0 0.5 0 5 1
M. Teague 36 1 4 1 3 2 2 3 0 2 1 5 3
D. Miller 24 2.5 7.5 1 4 0 0 1 0 0.5 1 6 1
E. Vargas 4 0 1 0 0 2 2
0 0 0 2 1
K. Wiltjer 11 2 4.5 1 1 0 0
1 0 0 5 1
Undefended 40 6 16 2 9 0 0

1
14














Totals 200 22 63 6 27 8 12 25 6 9 4 58 13
  • UK forced 8 turnovers (4 steals) in the first half, then only 1 turnover in the second. You can see that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was heavily involved in that action, even though he didn't get credit for any steals.
  • Florida got a lot of uncontested shots including 8 (9?) threes. To put that another way, fully 25% of Florida's shots were not defended at all by a UK player. The Cats usually do a better job limiting these kinds of shots, but they were a little fortunate that Florida didn't shoot better when wide open.
  • Anthony Davis was all over the place, especially on the perimeter. 18 shots defended isn't a career high (he had 19.5 against St. Johns) but the 5 forced misses on threes are. And he did it all while only committing a single foul too.
  • I thought Davis handled Patric Young just fine. Young had very little success trying to be physical with AD. Early in the season I wondered if UK would be able to handle a physical big man. I'm not worried about that any longer.
  • Marquis Teague did a fine job shadowing Erving Walker. He is close to becoming a sneaky good weapon on defense.
  • Speaking of Walker, does anyone know who (if anyone) guarded his last three (Florida's last 3 point shot)? The ESPN cameras were not watching the court when it happened, so I classified the attempt as "Undefended." It's a small thing, but I'd like to correct it if it was guarded by someone.

Kentucky Four Factors Ratings
Name Opp eFG% Opp TO% FTRate DRb% Stops Scores Plays Stop% DPoss% Def Rtg Opp Eff
M. Kidd-Gilchrist 42.9 24.5 171.4 21.5 8.9 3.4 12.3 0.72 0.21 88.9 57.1
T. Jones 45.5 14.8 36.4 19.6 4.2 2.5 6.7 0.63 0.24 92.7 74.2
M. Teague 37.5 31.2 50.0 7.8 4.5 2.0 6.4 0.70 0.12 92.9 78.0
A. Davis 25.0 8.5 0.0 12.9 7.2 4.5 11.7 0.62 0.22 93.6 76.8
D. Lamb 83.3 11.2 0.0 9.0 2.5 2.0 4.5 0.55 0.10 96.6 111.9
D. Miller 40.0 10.4 0.0 3.9 2.3 2.5 4.8 0.48 0.13 98.7 124.6
Undefended 43.8 10.5 0.0 0.0 3.5 6.0 9.5 0.37 0.16 102.9 147.6
K. Wiltjer 55.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.6 0.24 0.16 107.4 190.8
E. Vargas 0.0 0.0 200.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.21 0.20 111.4 166.9












Totals 39.7 15.0 19.0 58.1 33.9 25.8 59.7 0.57
96.7
  • An all around good game by MKG who once again does a little bit of everything. A couple of cheap fouls near the end of the game are the only blemish.
  • The Unsung hero might just be Doron Lamb, who I believe guarded Kenny Boynton for most of the night (at least he was when I was paying specific attention to him). Boynton finished with 18 points, but 13 of those came after UK had gone up 60 to 39 and the game was all but over. It was hard to keep track of this though, as MKG, Lamb, and Darius Miller all seemed to spend a lot of time switching around on Bradley Beal, Boynton, and Mike Rosario
  • The one player who could help the team rebound better is Darius Miller. He had a number of chances to grab defensive rebounds this game and didn't come up with them. He is capable of doing better.

For this game I decided to keep track of how both teams shot on their 3 point shots loosely categorized as "Wide Open" "Semi Guarded" and "Closely Guarded". Florida took a number of closely guarded threes, but several of those came late in the game. For the most part their shot selection (with respect to the presence of a defender) was pretty good - they just had a hard time hitting any.

Florida Made Missed Perc.
Open 2 7
22.2
Semi Open 1 6 14.3
Guarded 3 8 27.3

On the other hand, after starting the game 1 for 5, UK reeled off 8 for 10 to finish the game. They made better decisions (again with respect to the presence of a defender) overall than Florida did when deciding when to take a shot.

Kentucky Made Missed Perc.
Open 3 3 50.0
Semi Open 5 2 71.4
Guarded 1 1 50.0

One last item that isn't UK related, but still terrific. Luke Winn at Sports Illustrated just posted today an outstanding, in-depth look at Syracuse's zone defense using these defensive charting principles. It is well worth the read, especially for anyone who wants to gain a better understanding of what all this is about.

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This isn't really related to the DSS

But it was a great quote: Teague: “It makes us play harder when you enjoy who you’re playing with.”

The kids “get it”

Great article JL. I’m impressed with the “little things”. TJ has been a beast lately, on defense. He’s been a beast on offense quite a bit as well. But he is still a D beast when his shot isn’t falling. That seems to be a team-wide thing this year. It’s a great time to be a fan.

by sweasyf on Feb 8, 2012 9:39 PM EST reply actions  

Question about rebounding stats

How are those rebound rates affected by shots blocked out of bounds? I know Davis is really good at keeping blocks in play, but they still swat quite a few out of play. Back when I paid closer attention to such things, the stat keepers had an accountant’s obsession with balancing the books, and every missed shot had to result in a rebound. Is that still true, and if so how much does that play into UK’s defensive rebound rate?

by BCCatFan on Feb 8, 2012 9:48 PM EST reply actions  

blocked shots that go out of bounds are "Team offensive rebounds" for the opponent

But that doesn’t affect UK very much – both Davis and Jones are very good at keeping a blocked shot in play. Against Florida only 2 of the blocks went out of bounds.

Statistics is the part of mathematics that God didn't invent. - Ethan Smith

by JLeverenz on Feb 9, 2012 8:53 AM EST up reply actions  

Another good analysis.....

you have this stuff down cold JLev…..

On a side note, does anyone know where the fanposts went??

Mine have disappeared….lol

I am now and shall forever be the Cat in The Hat, The Artist Formerly Known As ABC!!!

by Greg Alan Edwards on Feb 8, 2012 10:38 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks Greg!

Statistics is the part of mathematics that God didn't invent. - Ethan Smith

by JLeverenz on Feb 9, 2012 8:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Tradeoff

I think the less than impressive defensive rebounding may have something to do with our aggressive shot blocking. Our interior defenders get up in the air going for a block and are then out of position for the rebound if the shot gets off.

by chicagoblues on Feb 9, 2012 2:29 AM EST reply actions  

I think that's part of it

There were a number of occasions against Florida where Davis or someone else would leave their man to give help and then didn’t recover in time to get the rebound. I’m planning to do some charting for the Vanderbilt game (and maybe this one too) on where the shot/rebound occurs on the floor to try to identify just how much the emphasis on shot blocking is contributing to the lack of boards.

Statistics is the part of mathematics that God didn't invent. - Ethan Smith

by JLeverenz on Feb 9, 2012 8:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Off the subject

Is the game Saturday night on ESPN?

by KYGRLNNM on Feb 9, 2012 6:00 AM EST reply actions  

Yes it is

GameDay featured game, 9:00 ET.

Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!

by a2d2 on Feb 9, 2012 6:10 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh bless their hearts!

I’ll be up at 0500 my time, so excited!

by KYGRLNNM on Feb 9, 2012 6:12 AM EST reply actions  

This helps answer the question,

what can the Cats possibly do better? Defensive rebounding, for one. Much thanks JL.

I was struck by how Florida shot 3s while guarded (27.3%) and while open or semi-guarded (18.8%). Obviously, Cal’s game plan for the O’Dome should be to leave Florida wide open beyond the arc, or better yet, just don’t guard them very closely out there. And Donovan, if he’s smart, will see what we’re doing and instruct his guys to stop taking outside shots. How deliciously brilliant!

As for not forcing many turnovers, it was Jimmy Dykes, I believe, who explained that Cal doesn’t want his guys to go for steals. He wants to be last in the league in that department (exaggerating, I’m sure) because going for steals can take you out of position, giving the offense an advantage. No, he would rather we play straight up defense and make the other guy shoot under the worse conditions possible. I had never heard such a thing, but it almost makes sense.

by Wheatgerm on Feb 9, 2012 9:33 AM EST reply actions  

Turnovers

That has been a hallmark of Cal’s defense since his last few years at Memphis – his teams do not force many TOs. But even for him, this team is really low in that area.

The turnovers don’t concern me quite as much as defensive rebounding – you can have a great defense without forcing TOs (as Cal has proven over the years), but defensive rebounds are not really optional – you have to get them to end the possession.

Statistics is the part of mathematics that God didn't invent. - Ethan Smith

by JLeverenz on Feb 9, 2012 11:48 AM EST up reply actions  

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