DSS: Kentucky vs Vanderbilt 2

by JLeverenz on Feb 26, 2012 8:58 PM EST in Kentucky Wildcats Basketball

Click here for an explanation of how the DSS is charted and what the ratings and box score represent.

The Kentucky Wildcats faced a game effort from the Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday and the game was a tight nit affair, in large part because the typically excellent Wildcat Defense allowed the Vandy offense to score at a 115.6 efficiency - the highest rate allowed by the Cats this season.

More after the jump, but don't miss Greg's post on the Lady Wildcats big win against Mississippi St today.

First off, I am once again indebted to Sports Illustrated's Luke Winn for his help in getting video to review the game.

Here is how Vanderbilt's Offense for the season and in conference play compares to the two games they've played against Kentucky.

Vanderbilt Offense
	Season	SEC	UK 2/11	UK 2/25
Offensive Eff.	114.9	111.3	103.3	115.6
eFG%	54.5	54.6	42.9	46.8
TO%	20.6	20.4	16.4	10.9
FT Rate	39.9	44.1	22.2	36.5
Offensive RB%	32.9	33.0	41.5	37.2

As you can see, Vanderbilt hit their average season long efficiency against the Cats on Saturday and were significantly better than they were 2 weeks ago. I don't think that will be much of a shock to anyone. The strengths of the defense this year have come from defending shots and keeping teams off the line. The Cats did a good job on the first mark, but not quite as well on the second. They did not force many turnovers, even for this team, and while their defensive rebounding was improved from the first meeting, it still left something to be desired.

Kentucky	Defense Box Score: Kentucky vs Vanderbilt
Name	Min	FGM	FGA	3PTM	3PTA	FTM	FTA	Def Rb	Blocks	TO	Steals	Points	Fouls
T. Jones	23	2	7	0	0	3	4	5	2	1	1	7	5
M. Kidd-Gilchrist	29	4.5	9.5	1.5	3.5	2	5	5	1	1	1	12.5	5
A. Davis	37	4	16.5	1	3	1	2	7	5	4	2	10	2
D. Lamb	37	5	9.5	3	5	3	3	1	0	0	0	16	1
M. Teague	38	2.5	7.5	1.5	4.5	2	2	4	0	1	1	8.5	1
D. Miller	33	0	5	0	2	3	6	3	0	0	0	3	3
E. Vargas	2	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0
K. Wiltjer	1	2	2	0	0	1	1		0	0	0	5	1
Undefended	40	6	6	0	0	0	0	2		0		12

Totals	200	26	63	7	18	15	23	27	8	7	5	74	18

I didn't hear Cal's post game comments, but I gather he wasn't pleased with Doron Lamb. I can understand that as Lamb did have a few notable defensive breakdowns in the second half, going under a screen to allow John Jenkins an open three point look which he nailed and giving Jenkins an open path to the basket for an easy layup a bit later.

Those two breakdowns were by far the exception however and I was really impressed with how tightly Lamb stuck to Jenkins throughout the game - very frequently Jenkins would receive the ball coming off a screen in a perfect catch-and-shoot position only to find Doron right in his face. Most of the time Jenkins passed the ball away, but after several times he started forcing shots.

Jenkins is an outstanding offensive player and he still managed a 18 points but it wasn't easy. Jenkins put up a solid 111.2 offensive rating for the game, but that's well below his 126.9 season mark.

Name	Opp eFG%	Opp TO%	FTRate	DRb%	Stops	Scores	Plays	Stop%	DPoss%	Def Rtg	Opp Eff
A. Davis	27.3	24.9	12.1	17.6	11.6	4.5	16.0	0.72	0.27	101.3	62.4
T. Jones	28.6	11.7	57.1	20.2	5.1	3.4	8.5	0.60	0.23	109.7	82.2
D. Miller	0.0	0.0	120.0	8.5	3.4	1.4	4.8	0.70	0.09	111.2	62.5
M. Teague	43.3	12.5	26.7	9.8	4.5	3.5	8.0	0.57	0.13	113.2	106.5
M. Kidd-Gilchrist	55.3	9.3	52.6	16.0	5.3	5.5	10.7	0.49	0.23	115.2	116.4
E. Vargas	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.00	115.6	0.0
D. Lamb	68.4	0.0	31.6	2.5	2.0	6.4	8.4	0.24	0.14	123.5	190.1
Undefended	100.0	0.0	0.0	4.7	0.9	6.0	6.9	0.13	0.11	124.2	173.5
K. Wiltjer	100.0	0.0	50.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	0.00	1.00	224.2	250.0

Totals	46.8	10.9	36.5	62.8	32.8	32.6	65.4	0.50		115.6

Anthony Davis once again put up mind blowing defensive numbers. His Defensive Rating was 14 points better than the team mark which is really impressive. Add to that another 70%+ Stop Rate and engagement in 27% of the possessions while on the floor and you get a POY performance on the defensive as well as the offensive end of the floor.
Kyle Wiltjer did not have a red letter day. I don't know if his leg was still bothering him from the Mississippi St game, but he got scored on twice during the one minute he was in the game.
This may have been Darius Miller's best defensive game in conference play. He once again grabbed 3 defensive rebounds and prevented anyone from scoring on him. He was nearly as difficult to score against as Davis was, just not involved in as many possessions. That's not a surprise as he was guarding Lance Goulbourne much of the time.

Tweet Comment 18 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Well, as often as I am seeing numbers around here they ought to start making sense, so I am going to ask,

does this breakdown take into effect the times that a player has to play out of position? I remember seeing Kyle say something to Caoch Cal after he had given him grief about a mistake, that he was playing the “3”. I am of the opinion that Cal was upset about him being out of position. After Kyle said that, Cal recognized it and seemed to understand.

So, does the player’s position due to circumstances of a switch, or a fast break effect what happens in their defending of the basket? Should a 5 be able to guard a 1 or a 2? Should a 1 be able to guard a 5?

I know Cal makes his system fit his players, and defense is a team effort, but should we not expect a dropoff if a player ends up getting caught on the wrong man?

By the way JLev, I wish you would do one of these on the women (begging, lol). Those defensive numbers would shock some people I believe.

I am now and shall forever be the Cat in The Hat, The Artist Formerly Known As ABC!!!

by Greg Alan Edwards on Feb 26, 2012 10:37 PM EST reply actions

Position is not taken into account

As much as possible it’s entirely about “did he or did he not defend the field goal attempt/help force the turnover/commit the foul”

The position thing would be pretty complicated to judge, especially since the Cats do so much switching. As much as possible I try to stick to what did happen instead of what should or might have happened in order to limit my own subjective judgement as much as possible. Trying to determine what a player being out of position should or should not be expected to do falls under that category which is why I am reluctant to try and compensate for it.

Statistics is the part of mathematics that God didn't invent. - Ethan Smith

by JLeverenz on Feb 27, 2012 8:52 AM EST up reply actions

understood.....just was wondering....you guys make me start thinking about this stuff when you give me all these numbers to play with.

I am now and shall forever be the Cat in The Hat, The Artist Formerly Known As ABC!!!

by Greg Alan Edwards on Feb 27, 2012 9:08 AM EST up reply actions

One more thing

I have given some thought to doing a DSS for the women, but time is the primary issue. I would really like to do it, but I just don’t have enough time.

Statistics is the part of mathematics that God didn't invent. - Ethan Smith

by JLeverenz on Feb 27, 2012 8:53 AM EST up reply actions

Don't sweat it.....if I understood the premise better I would do it myself.....I understand time constraints.

Besides, I know they are good….it’s poretty obvious when someone sees them……I can work wioth that.

I am now and shall forever be the Cat in The Hat, The Artist Formerly Known As ABC!!!

by Greg Alan Edwards on Feb 27, 2012 9:09 AM EST up reply actions

I've wanted to do one for the Women

If for no other reason than to get a better feel for how their defense contrasts with the men beyond the obvious pressure. When we hit March I might have some time during Spring Break to do one for one of their tournament games.

Statistics is the part of mathematics that God didn't invent. - Ethan Smith

by JLeverenz on Feb 27, 2012 10:45 AM EST up reply actions

I think Doron Lamb did an overall very good job.

Jenkins is a very, very difficult cover, and everyone is going to break down a few times against him. Lamb is not a great defender overall, but I think in this game, he was very good – maybe the best I’ve ever seen him.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Glenn Logan on Feb 27, 2012 7:02 AM EST reply actions

I agree

As well as Jenkins shot, I think Lamb’s tight defense likely prevented him from attempting anywhere from 4-6 additional 3’s in the game which could have meant as much as 6-9 more points for Vandy. Often a shot prevented is better defense than a forced miss.

Statistics is the part of mathematics that God didn't invent. - Ethan Smith

by JLeverenz on Feb 27, 2012 8:55 AM EST up reply actions

A shot prevented is

always better than a forced miss…can’t shoot, can’t score.

Your work on DSS is really interesting btw. I follow it intently.

As far as Lamb, I thought he was fantastic Saturday. That criticism is just Coach….if you can do it 98 times out 100, why not do it the other 2? You have already done the hard work….you can see that mentality in AD’s FT’s. ..I don’t miss FT’s anymore Coach….

by darkandbloody@gmail.com on Feb 27, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions

What is so amazing about Davis's stats

is that he did it against arguably the best true big man in SEC. Azeli was as active as I have seen him this year. I think Azeli’s effort brought out a higher level of play from Davis. Your thoughts?

by big-cuz fan on Feb 27, 2012 7:45 AM EST reply actions

He certainly did well

There were a couple times where he let Ezeli get to the basket without much resistance, but even Davis is human (or so we think!). What really makes him so great is how much ground he is able to cover and how many different players he can defend -Davis can stop you around the basket, at the 3 point arc and anywhere in between.

Statistics is the part of mathematics that God didn't invent. - Ethan Smith

by JLeverenz on Feb 27, 2012 8:56 AM EST up reply actions

"a tight nit affair"

I had one of those in Bangkok.

by Wheatgerm on Feb 27, 2012 9:10 AM EST reply actions

A Little Dab'll Do Ya

I remember it well Wheatgerm.

"In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act." - George Orwell

by Wild Weasel on Feb 27, 2012 9:38 AM EST up reply actions

Jones

Analysis after analysis, TJ looks good in the DSS numbers. Two observations: I wish the media would give the kid his due as this is as important to the team success as his offense is. I get tired of Vitale and the media in general finding fault with Jones when his work under the basket is stellar (e.g., Thomas Robinson in the Kansas game, Henson in the UNC game).
Secondly, it worries me when he collects fouls because Cal jerks him with 2 in the first half and often substitutes Wiltjer which IMO is a bad solution. Jones on the bench vs. Vandy contributed to the Cats’ early lead wilting away in the first half.

by Big Blue Daddy on Feb 27, 2012 3:23 PM EST reply actions

Jones has always been an underrated defender

One of the big takeaways for me from the limited DSS work last season was that Jones was just as important on the defensive end as Liggins was to that team. Even so, many basketball writers/commentators couldn’t look past the fact that he wasn’t averaging as many points in the second half of the season as he was in the first half and concluded that he was “pouting” or “not playing hard” or some other such nonsense. Sadly, that narrative has continued this season.

Statistics is the part of mathematics that God didn't invent. - Ethan Smith

by JLeverenz on Feb 27, 2012 7:29 PM EST up reply actions

The problem with small samples

Look at the bottom of that chart. It is actually better to leave a guy unguarded than to put Kyle Wiltjer on them.

and there’s some wonderful oceanfront property just an hour or so west of Denver for you also.

by sweasyf on Feb 27, 2012 5:01 PM EST reply actions

JL

I lean toward the assumption that Wiltjer’s knee, I think, was still bothering him. His two brief appearances may have been just to see if he could go. Kyle didn’t seem to be moving real good.

by bigboyblue on Feb 27, 2012 5:36 PM EST reply actions

Nice stuff JL...

..I need to spend a little more time looking at this (over time as you continue to post) to really appreciate all that is there. My first impression is it is really nice to see something tangible that characterizes at least part of Miller’s value to the team. And I do seem to read occasionally about Teague’s defensive ability, but it is interesting to see how well he did against Vandy compared to others (like MKG — not part of the Tinsley effect, is it?). Finally, I did not realize how well Vandy has done against us offensively over two games — efficiencies over 100 both times are pretty impressive I think. Anyway, I’m sure you already know but very interesting info.

by Dan Harris on Feb 28, 2012 5:59 PM EST reply actions