Kentucky Basketball Recruiting: 2012 Big Board (Version 5)

No, there hasn't been a new commitment since our last big board update in November. Archie Goodwin, Alex Poythress, and Willie Cauley remain Kentucky's only three signees in the class.

And yes, I realize we're knee-deep in an incredible season of Kentucky basketball. But if I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times: recruiting never sleeps. And thus, the impetus for this update.

Right now, it looks like Kentucky will target 2 to 3 more high school recruits to complete the class. Three names have jumped to the top of UK's "want list": Shabazz Muhammad and newly reclassified Nerlens Noel, the top two players in the class, and Anthony Bennett, a top 10 recruit in his own right. Power forward and center are the "need-based" positions right now, as Kentucky's depth at the "big" spots will likely be thin going into next year. As a result, Kentucky also has offers out to Tony Parker and Amile Jefferson along with Bennett and Noel.

Muhammad remains more of a nice to have, but he is a take no matter who else is on board. Devonta Pollard, a combo forward similar to signee Poythress, holds Kentucky's last remaining offer.

Don't expect any noise until after the college basketball season is over. Of the remaining targets, only Jefferson looks likely to commit soon (reportedly in early March), and the Wildcats aren't likely to be the winning school in his recruitment. That just means April will be a lot of fun.

Please be advised that table is best-viewed in "Wide" screen mode, which you can toggle via your dashboard. It's jam-packed with information that just can't be contained!

Name	Pos	School (Hometown)	Ranking (Scout/Rivals/ESPNU)	Offer (Odds)	Commitment (Odds)	Favorite School(s)	News & Notes	Trending (since 11/21/11)
Nerlens Noel	C	The Tilton School (Everett, MA)	Scout: 5*/1st Rivals: 5*/NA ESPNU: 5*/1st	Offered	40%	Syracuse Kentucky UNC Florida Georgetown UConn Providence	2/18/12 - Noel visited UK on Feb 18, a week after visiting Syracuse. He plans on taking at least three more visits before making a decision. 2/1/12 - Noel reclassified to the class of 2012, vaulting to the top of the rankings. He had previously been a top target for UK in the 2013 class.
Willie Cauley	C	Olathe Northwest (Spearville, KS)	Scout: 4*/35th Rivals: 4*/39th ESPNU: 4*/40th	Offered	Committed (10/31/11)	Signed (11/9/11)	2/18/12 - Cauley made a surprise visit to Kentucky the same weekend as Noel. The hope is to see these twin towers pair together next year.
Anthony Bennett	PF/SF	Findlay Prep (Brampton, Ont)	Scout: 5*/7th Rivals: 5*/7th ESPNU: 5*/7th	Offered	40%	Kentucky Florida Oregon Washington UNLV	1/24/12 - Per Adam Zagoria (5Star Basketball), Bennett is down to five finalists, with UK and UF the presumed co-leaders. He has not yet taken any official visits.
Tony Parker	PF	Miller Grove (Lithonia, GA)	Scout: 5*/20th Rivals: 4*/33rd ESPNU: 4*/21st	Offered	10%	UCLA Ohio St Duke Georgetown Memphis Kentucky UConn	2/24/12 - Parker, in a bit of a surprise, is expected to take an official visit to Kansas on Feb 25. 2/4/12 - Per Tracy Pierson (Scout), Parker and Muhammad are leaning strongly towards UCLA. 1/6/12 - Kentucky offered Parker and is trying to get him to take an official visit. He has two officials left.
Amile Jefferson	PF/SF	Friends Central (Philadelphia)	Scout: 5*/22nd Rivals: 4*/36th ESPNU: 5*/18th	Offered	<5%	Duke NC State Villanova Kentucky Ohio St UConn	2/23/12 - Per Dave Telep (ESPNU), Jefferson will unofficially visit Duke on Mar 3 and announce his decision sometime after the visit. 2/10/12 - Per multiple sources, Duke and NC State are co-leaders for Jefferson, who is trying to decide prior to the Late Signing Period. There's no buzz for UK.
Christopher Obekpa	PF	Our Savior New American (Centereach, NY)	Scout: 4*/74th Rivals: 3*/105th ESPNU: 4*/50th	Not Yet Offered (5%)	N/A	DePaul St. John's Seton Hall UConn West VA Cincinnati Providence	2/18/12 - Obekpa unofficially visited UConn on Feb 18 after officially visiting DePaul on Jan 27. He continues to list UK despite a lack of an offer.
Shabazz Muhammad	SF/SG	Bishop Gorman (Las Vegas)	Scout: 5*/2nd Rivals: 5*/1st ESPNU: 5*/2nd	Offered	30%	UCLA Kentucky Duke Kansas UNLV Arizona	2/24/12 - Muhammad is expected to take an official visit to KU on Feb 25. 2/13/12 - The Cats Pause is growing increasingly pessimistic about UK's chances with Muhammad. 2/4/12 - In an interview with Garrett Tucker (Nation of Blue), Muhammad's father refuted the report that Muhammad is UCLA-bound.
Alex Poythress	SF/PF	Northeast (Clarksville, TN)	Scout: 5*/15th Rivals: 5*/19th ESPNU: 5*/16th	Offered	Committed (11/10/11)	Signed (11/10/11)	2/9/12 - Poythress was named to the McDonald's All-American and Jordan Brand Classic games.
Devonta Pollard	SF/PF	Kemper County (DeKalb, MS)	Scout: 5*/25st Rivals: 5*/9th ESPNU: 4*/32nd	Offered	10%	Miss St Alabama Texas Missouri Georgetown Kentucky	2/4/12 - Pollard officially visited Missouri on Feb 4 after visiting Texas on Jan 21. He has expressed interest in visiting UK and still keeps in contact with the coaching staff.
Savon Goodman	SF/PF	Constitution (Philadelphia)	Scout: 4*/89th Rivals: 4*/53rd ESPNU: 4*/98th	Not Yet Offered (5%)	N/A	UCLA Arizona Villanova Temple Pittsburgh Rutgers Kentucky	1/4/12 - In an interview with 5Star Basketball, Goodman mentioned UK in his list of interested schools. He may be a backup option for UK.
Archie Goodwin	SG	Sylvan Hills (Little Rock, AR)	Scout: 5*/17th Rivals: 5*/12th ESPNU: 5*/15th	Offered	Committed (9/20/11)	Signed (11/15/11)	2/9/12 - Goodwin was named to the McDonald's All-American and Jordan Brand Classic games.
Torian Graham	SG	Word of God (Durham, NC)	Scout: 4*/65st Rivals: 4*/51st ESPNU: 4*/81st	Not Yet Offered (5%)	N/A	NC State Xavier Pittsburgh Oregon	2/2/12 - Per Adam Zagoria (ZagsBlog), Graham has 4 schools pursuing him the hardest. He theoretically remains a backup option for UK.
DaJuan Coleman	C	Jamesville-DeWitt (DeWitt, NY)	Scout: 5*/10th Rivals: 4*/27th ESPNU: 5*/13th	Offered	0%	Syracuse	10/25/11 - Coleman committed to SU over UK and OSU on Oct 25.
Mitch McGary	PF/C	Brewster Academy (Chesterton, IN)	Scout: 5*/21st Rivals: 5*/3rd ESPNU: 5*/22nd	Offered	0%	Michigan	11/3/11 - McGary committed to Michigan over Duke and UF on Nov 3.
Brandon Ashley	PF	Findlay Prep (Oakland, CA)	Scout: 5*/5th Rivals: 5*/13th ESPNU: 5*/10th	Offered	0%	Arizona	8/29/11 - Ashley committed to Arizona over UCLA, Oregon, and UK on Aug 29.
Jarnell Stokes	PF	Southwind (Memphis)	Scout: 5*/NA Rivals: 5*/11th ESPNU: 5*/NA	Offered	0%	Tennessee	12/23/11 - Stokes committed to Tennessee at mid-term over Memphis and UK on Dec 23.
Perry Ellis	PF	Wichita Heights (Wichita, KS)	Scout: 4*/36th Rivals: 5*/24th ESPNU: 4*/31st	Offered	0%	Kansas	9/21/11 - Ellis committed to KU over UK, KSU, and Wich St on Sep 21.
TJ Warren	SF	Brewster Academy (Durham, NC)	Scout: 5*/26th Rivals: 5*/23rd ESPNU: 4*/29th	Offered	0%	NC State	11/2/11 - Warren committed to NC State over Georgetown on Nov 2.
Winston Shepard	SF	Findlay Prep (Fresno, TX)	Scout: 4*/39th Rivals: 4*/40th ESPNU: 4*/53rd	Not Offered	0%	SDSU	2/16/12 - Shepard committed to SDSU on Feb 16 without ever receiving a UK offer. He'll drop off the next big board.
Gary Harris	SG	Hamilton Southeastern (Indianapolis)	Scout: 5*/11th Rivals: 5*/25th ESPNU: 5*/11th	Offered	0%	Michigan St	11/9/11 - Harris committed to Michigan St over IU, UK and Purdue on Nov 9.
Ricardo Ledo	SG	Notre Dame (Providence)	Scout: 4*/14th Rivals: 5*/8th ESPNU: 4*/19th	Offered	0%	Providence	9/5/11 - Ledo committed to Providence over UK, Syracuse and UConn on Sep 5.
JP Tokoto	SG/SF	Menomonee Falls (Menomonee Falls, WI)	Scout: 4*/90th Rivals: 4*/68th ESPNU: 4*/66th	Offered	0%	UNC	3/4/11 - Tokoto committed to UNC over Wisconsin on Mar 4.
LJ Rose	PG	Westbury Christian (Houston)	Scout: 4*/67th Rivals: 4*/95th ESPNU: 4*/74th	Offered	0%	Baylor	9/3/11 - Rose committed to Baylor over Georgetown and Virginia on Sep 3.

Note: Likelihood of offer and likelihood of commitment are estimates based on available information. Percentage statuses change as new information becomes available.

Scholarship Situation

As of today, Kentucky has two graduating seniors in Eloy Vargas and Darius Miller. Returnees in 2012 would include Ryan Harrow (RS sophomore), Jon Hood (RS junior), Doron Lamb (junior), Terrence Jones (junior) and the 2011 class of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marquis Teague, Anthony Davis and Kyle Wiltjer. Jones, Lamb, Kidd-Gilchrist, Teague and Davis are strong early entrant candidates. The Wildcats also return two preferred walk-ons, Jarrod Polson (junior) and Twany Beckham (senior).

There's a strong chance Kentucky goes into the 2012-13 season with just three returning scholarship players: Harrow, Hood, and Wiltjer. On the list above, Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist, and Jones are all projected to be lottery picks and should be considered gone. Teague is a fringe first-round pick, and Lamb grades out as a second-round pick. While there's the possibility that one or both could stay, right now I'm projecting them to both leave as well.

Based on the above, Kentucky would have 10 scholarships open, though Calipari would not fill all 10 spots. I'm projecting the Wildcats to target 3 more 2012 recruits. Along with the 3 commits already signed, that would be 6 recruits in the class, and 9 scholarship players total. Calipari would hold onto the remaining scholarships for 2013, giving one-year scholarships to the walk-ons. He may also try to find a late transfer, similar to Vargas in 2010 or Harrow in 2011, that he could either play immediately (as a graduate transfer) or be stashed for 2013.

Remaining Targets - Bigs (Needs: 2-4)

Committed/Signed: Willie Cauley

Kentucky would have loved to add the bulky Jarnell Stokes to next year's roster. Unfortunately, the academically-proficient Stokes graduated early and, looking for an immediate scholarship and playing time, chose rival school Tennessee. When a door closes, a window opens. Just a few weeks ago, 2013 target Nerlens Noel reclassified to his original class, 2012. He's a true center and has been glowingly called the best defensive amateur in the states--yes, purportedly even better than "Browdown." Kentucky should rightfully be considered a favorite for Noel. However, it may be hard to pry him from the Northeast, particularly Syracuse, a school that has been recruiting him for a long time.

With only Wiltjer and Cauley penciled in to next year's big man rotation, Kentucky won't stop at just one more forward/center recruit if someone else wants to say yes. Amile Jefferson isn't likely to be that guy, as most recruitniks have him committing soon to either Duke or NC State. Thus, the two other names to watch are Anthony Bennett and Tony Parker.

Kentucky (and a host of other schools) have been recruiting Bennett for quite a while, but Bennett hasn't been doing any recruiting at all. Expect that to change once Findlay Prep ends its basketball season. Bennett will start taking official visits fast and furious, with Kentucky and Florida the reported leaders right now. Parker is a new entry to the big board, and his recruitment is a bit of a mystery. Kentucky, UConn, and Kansas have all come on late for Parker, and he's been quiet about his thoughts. He does have two official visits left, with one reportedly going to Kansas this weekend.

Two recruits that don't possess Kentucky offers but are "on the radar" are Christopher Obekpa and Savon Goodman. Both prospects have continued to list interest in Kentucky. Whether the interest has been reciprocated is debatable.

Remaining Targets - Wings (Needs: 1-2)

Committed/Signed: Alex Poythress

Shabazz Muhammad may have taken a backseat to a reclassified Noel on the Top 100 boards, but he's still target 1A for Kentucky. The versatile swingman is an elite slashing scorer, and pairing him with the best big man defender in the nation would be criminally unfair. If there's any coach that can recruit them both, though, it's one John Calipari. After visiting Kentucky in the fall, Muhammad is taking his remaining official visits this spring before deciding. His recruitment is likely down to UCLA, Kentucky, and Duke.

Devonta Pollard also holds a Kentucky offer, but appears to have been slow played by Kentucky as the Cats look at bigger targets. If Calipari knew for sure that Muhammad wasn't coming, he may go after Pollard and shift Poythress to a 3/4 hybrid role that Terrence Jones currently plays. As it stands, Pollard is also in the midst of taking official visits and likely won't decide anytime soon.

Bennett's Findlay Prep teammate Winston Shepard was in the same boat as Obekpa, liking Kentucky but getting little interest. Unlike Obekpa, he's chosen to end his commitment, picking San Diego State.

Remaining Targets - Guards (Needs: 1-3)

Committed/Signed: Archie Goodwin, Ryan Harrow (transfer)

The bizarre recruitment of Torian Graham continues. He's committed twice now to NC State, only to subsequently decommit. He lists Kentucky but I sincerely doubt there's any fire there. As I have repeatedly mentioned, Kentucky is not recruiting a point guard in this class with Harrow slated to take over the starting role in 2012.

If Muhammad were to pick the Wildcats, he and Goodwin would probably be interchangeable at the 2/3 spots.

Outlook

It's closing time for John Calipari. You know, I'm just sayin': this year's National Championship game is on April 2. The Late Signing Period for basketball starts April 11. That's not a lot of post-season recruiting time for coaches with powerhouse programs expecting to cut down the nets. As a result, Kentucky's coaching staff has been making the recruiting rounds while knee-deep in conference play.

In his spare time, Calipari has already made recruiting treks. For example, he's gone to Las Vegas to watch Muhammad and Bennett, flown to Texas to see 2013 targets Julius Randle, Andrew Harrison, and Aaron Harrison, and been to Tennessee to check on 2013 targets Austin Nichols and Jonathan Williams III. On campus visits, Kentucky just hosted Noel and Cauley, and still hope to bring in Bennett, as well as possibly Parker and/or Pollard.

Ideally, Kentucky closes with its "Big 3": Noel, Muhammad, Bennett. Kentucky isn't a majority favorite for any of those prospects, which is why I have all their commitment odds under 50%. However, I do think that, at worst, Kentucky is in second place for all three and have plenty of bandwidth to make up the difference going into April.

Get the big cheese some coffee.

Follow my Twitter feed (@JC_Hoops) for the latest updates and keep an eye out for the next big board update.

Other Recruiting Big Boards

2012 | Version 4 (11/21/11) | Version 3 (9/23/11) | Version 2 (7/25/11) | Version 1 (4/21/11)
2013 | Version 2 (12/6/11) | Version 1 (5/25/11)
2014 | Version 1 (5/25/11)