Impact of Marquis Teague "slowing the pace"
by Dan Harris on Feb 16, 2012 5:32 PM EST
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PrintWe all have been reading lately that Marquis Teague and Cal are both saying part of Teague's improvement is due to slowing the pace in conjunction with not measuring himself by how often he scores. I decided to have a look at the numbers to see how evident this change in behavior really is as well as determine the resulting impact on UK's performance.
First, if you look at a chart of the number of possessions per game (I only include Big 6 conference games), there is a sudden consistent shift downward after the Bama game.
What has happened to Teague's individual stats and UK's performance since this change? See the answers after the jump....
Since Bama, Teague's individual stats have reflected a potential shift in a "score first" to "pass first" approach as his points and field goal attempts per game have gone down
while his assists have gone up and he has not had nearly as may turnovers.
The Vandy game was a little different, however: assists and turnovers were excellent, but there was also an increase in number of shots and total points.
UK's results have improved dramatically with Teague's shift to a "pass first" approach: since the Bama game, the average margin of victory has almost doubled even though there are fewer possessions per game
and points per possession have increased by 0.15!
Again, the exception is the Vandy game. While on the surface one might be tempted to attribute that difference to Teague's increased number of shots, I think that is not the case since most of those shots were taken in the first half and UK ended the half with a healthy lead.
My question: does the increase in Teague's shots during the Vandy game indicate that the next phase in Cal's development of Teague is to teach him to effectively combine scoring with moving the ball around (a la Rose/Wall, which, except for a few ill-advised shots, Teague did successfully in the first half against Vandy) or is the increase in Teague's shots just an anomaly? I posed this question on a Lexington call-in show and was told Teague was likely just exploiting a mismatch with Brad Tinsley. What do you think?
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Outstanding
With just one game to go on, I am tempted to lean towards the “exploit mismatch” answer. Another consideration is that this UK team is so balanced that they seem to switch around who the leading scorer is for each game. I think that makes it more likely that we’ll see Teague continue to average a low number of FGAs with games like Vanderbilt occurring infrequently.
Statistics is the part of mathematics that God didn't invent. - Ethan Smith
I hope so
Even though he was “fine” I cringed at a few of the shots in the first half against Vandy.
Jimmy, well done! Rec'd!
I agree with the mismatch theory – Teague had a significant advantage in the Vandy game and easily took his defender off the bounce and kept scoring. Teague has never been shy on offense. Cal has repeatedly stated he wants Teague to take his open shots if the defender sags off in order to keep the defense honest – Cal just wanted him to take those shots within the flow of the game rather than force it. The problem was he hasn’t consistently knocked them down at the same clip he did in the Florida and Vandy games.
USC 6/10 1/1 from 3 for 17-pts
Auburn 4/11 2/3 from 3 for 12-pts
Tenn 3/8 0/0 from 3 for 7-pts
Arkansas 2/4 0/0 from 3 for 7-pts
‘Bama 4/11 0/1 from 3 for 10-pts
Georgia 1/7 0/3 from 3 for 2-pts
LSU 2/6 2/4 from 3 for 6-pts
Tenn 2/4 0/0 from 3 for 9-pts
USC 2/6 0/2 from 3 for 4-pts
FL 4/6 2/3 from 3 for 12-pts
Vandy 6/12 0/3 from 3 for 13-pts
In conference play, prior to the Alabama game, Teague averaged 8.25 FGA per game. Thereafter, he has averaged 7.42 FGA per game – fewer, but less than one shot per game despite the significantly slower pace. (In non-conference games, Teague averaged 9.20 FGA per game with a average game pace that was even faster than pre-Alabama conference play.) Given the game-to-game variance, I’d say there’s little to suggest Cal has changed gears with regards to Teague developmental path.
Appreciate the insight...
…you have a good point: I may be putting too much emphasis on the single Vandy game. I hope you are right because in my opinion things sure seem to go a lot better when Teague has is focused on his teammates instead of the basket!
Dan?!? ...
What happened to Jimmy the Geek? ;-)
Your fears may be correct but it’s hard to suggest a trend with only the one Vandy data point to support it.
Dan, please disregard my name confusion...
Sorry… :-(
It's okay...
Jimmy couldn’t handle the pressure so he asked me to fill in indefinitely…
And thanks again...
…for suggesting I post this. I’m enjoying the feedback.
You guys with all these stats are killing me......
With this kind of info, I wouldn’t mind taking the Cats into battle against a few people……
Nice job Jimmy…..very nice….
I am now and shall forever be the Cat in The Hat, The Artist Formerly Known As ABC!!!
by Greg Alan Edwards on Feb 16, 2012 6:55 PM EST reply actions
It is very clear
that Coach Cal is using these games as a learning lab for Teague. He has them playing a slow down deliberate half court offense that allows Marquis to apply the decision making skills he is being taught. Seeing as how many consider him the weakest link on a strong team it appears to be excellent coaching strategy. With up to 8 games to go before the NCAA tourney, Coach Cal is fine tuning his PG to the level it will take to win it all. When he has a mismatch like Tinsley, he must recognize the advantage that gives him and exploit it. It will be interesting to see what happens when an opponent’s game plan is to deny Teague his comfort zone for running the team.
Making waves in a sea of blue.
Interesting insight...
… I also have seen a very strong correlation between team assists and margin, which you would assume is driven by Marquis — my guess is we will find out at some point!
Weakest link
He definitely has not been the weakest link lately.
His stats and game management have been almost perfect.
Welcome!
Never front-paged a first fanpost before. Great work, very impressive.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
uh oh...
Don’t turn to the dark side!
Statistics is the part of mathematics that God didn't invent. - Ethan Smith
And as far as the dark side...
..I’m old enough to have tried that a few times and have learned to stay in the light :-)
Thanks..
I appreciate you posting and J for suggesting I submit this. I’ve read this sight for several years and appreciated the insights of the posts and comments — it should be fun to participate.
Perhaps it wasn't just a mismatch
But the fact they were playing off of him. It seems over the past few games where he has been learning to pass-first that folks are giving him the jumper. If I remember correctly, vs Vandy he hit his first jumper from near the elbow, then he mad a 3. Points quickly scored and now the defense has to double think leaving him that much open.
I agree with Glenn, great post.
Thanks --
and I think you are right the were giving him some room — if the shots are there makes sense to take (and hopefully hit) them.
I Choose Anomaly
Tinsley is widely recognized as the weak link in Vandy’s defense thus the early game plan and the ensuing switch by Stallings to a zone. I fully expect a reversion of sorts versus Ole Miss although Teague will be going against another freshman Jarvis Summers.
One can hardly talk about PG’s today without somehow mentioning Jeremy Lin, and the subject of Teague’s slowing the pace fits right in with this NYT piece on teaching the pick-and-roll — Calipari’s current offense of choice.
"In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act." - George Orwell
I will be interested to see how the rematch with Vandy goes next week
Will the Commodores start in a zone? If so I think UK will tear it up. Will Vandy play man with Tinsley on Teague? Then Teague will have a similar game to how his first half went last week. Will they try to put someone else on him? I have no idea who that would be though.
Statistics is the part of mathematics that God didn't invent. - Ethan Smith
It should be interesting...
…to see what opposing coaches will try to throw at us — I would not be surprised if we see some very creative approaches down the stretch (and I agree practice against the zone should help). Thanks for the responses…
Have to agree, more game time exposure to an effective zone defense will help prepare our young Cats for what is coming in the Big Dance.
by BarryM on Feb 16, 2012 11:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Thanks...
..look forward to the discussions with you all…
Jimmy, people like yourself, Glenn, JL, and others are what makes this site awesome
This was an Excellent post. I have been mulling over whether or not to do a high end analytical type post similar to this but I don’t think it will be close to this level. Very nice.
by floundringaround on Feb 16, 2012 9:59 PM EST reply actions
Maybe I could do a detailed presentation on Bourbon distillation/tasting/blending...
Now that’s something I could analyze and teach with my hands behind my back!
by floundringaround on Feb 16, 2012 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
If you've been thinking about doing something analytic then do it!
I for one would love to read what you have to say!
Statistics is the part of mathematics that God didn't invent. - Ethan Smith
Absoluely right.
Don’t hold back, man, just write that thang.
A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan
by Glenn Logan on Feb 17, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Thanks...
..but I would ask you not to sell yourself short. I like this site because it seems to be more of a forum for contribution and constructive discussion of ideas. I actually posted this as a result of an exchange I had with JLeverenz asking his advice on how to find a good forum for these kinds of discussions and see others ideas..but if you do the bourbon thing instead will it include samples?
Agree - great post.
I’ve been out for a few days and this was the first post I clicked on after looking at all of the headlines.
Kentucky Basketball - The Reason for Living
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