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Guess the Outcome Game (GOG) 2012-2013: Preseason Predictions

Yessiree Bobsky - the GOG is back! The Cats kick off their 4th year of the John Calipari era by defending their NCAA Title. Question marks abound for this edition of the Wildcats which could make this the most unpredictable year yet and what better way to enjoy it than to make blind guesses at random questions regarding games that haven't been played! But that's not all. Under head coach Matthew "Please Hammer, don't hurt 'em" Mitchell, the UK Women's team is posed to have an incredible season - perhaps the best in program history. For this reason the GOG will expand this year to include the women's games - twice the basketball, twice the fun!

A little GOG History

The GOG was originally started at fellow SBN site Athletics Nation for the 2005 baseball season and was run by AN members Alien and Jjjsixsix. This is the 4th year for the GOG on ASeaofBlue and I think those who participated the last few years have had a lot of fun. Last year btcoop edged out a2d2 for the Scoring Title while GoLightning took home the Top Scoring Average.

Changes for this season

  • As mentioned above, this year will be feature questions about both the Men's and Women's teams.
  • I am revamping the scoring to make it a little easier to score points. Many questions will award points for answers that are close but not exactly correct, similar to how "Guess the point total" questions have been scored in the past. Conditions will be specified by the problems themselves.
  • Rather than just give a list of questions, I'm going to try and organize them into categories this year, such as "Players" "Opponent" "Overall Game" etc. Hopefully it makes things a little easier to read.
  • This is not a change, but like last year I will often combine several games into a single GOG to try and reduce the work load a bit.

So How Do You Play?

This part is very simple. Each week I will post a list of questions for you to predict the answers to. This will usually occur the day before the first game for the GOG. Just come up with your answers and leave them as a comment. There is a deadline for the answers, which will typically be tip-off for the game in question. Examples of some of previous GOG's are here and here to give you an idea.

Questions will fall under 5 general categories and are scored as follows:

  • Yes/no type questions: These are worth +1 point for a correct answer or -1 point for an incorrect answer. Example: if the question is "Does UK hit 6 or more three pointers" and they go 7 for 11 from the arc, you would get +1 point for answering "yes" and -1 point for answering "no".
  • Open ended questions: These have a variety of possible answers and are worth between 3 and 5 points for a correct answer, with no penalty for a wrong answer. The point value varies depending on the difficulty of the question. Example: "Which UK player grabs the most rebounds?" would be a 3 point open ended question (because the options are rather limited), whereas "Who is the NCAA Tournament MOP" would be a 5 point question.
  • Guess a stat line: These questions will have three parts, worth 3 points each, with no penalty for wrong answers. Example: "Predict Nerlens Noel's points/blocks/rebounds against Duke.
  • Guess a (high) point total question: This question is typically about guessing both UK's and the opponents respective points scored for the game. Because there is such a wide range of possibilities, answers are graded on a sliding scale. Getting it dead on is worth 4 points, being within one is worth 3 points, within two or three is worth 2 points, and being within four or five of the correct answer is worth 1 point.

    This has now changed starting in GOG #12. The new scale is

    Within 0 or 1: 4 points
    Within 2 or 3: 3 points
    Within 4 or 5: 2 points
    Within 6 or 7: 1 point
  • Put a list in order: You will get a list of teams/players/something and you put them in order from 1st to last based on some criteria. Every correct placement is worth 1 point with no penalty for incorrect answers. Example: "Rank the freshmen from 1st to last based on season ppg."
  • Choose an option from a list: This is a new question type where I will give you a list of options to choose an answer from. Often different options will have different point values depending on how likely they are to happen. For instance, if the question is "Who will make the most 3's: 1) Mays (2 pts), 2) Goodwin (2 pts), 3) Harrow (4 pts)" you would choose an answer from the list and if correct will be awarded the specified points. Since Harrow is less likely to lead the team in made 3's, his option is worth more points as an incentive.

After each game, I will tally up and post the scores and keep track of total points and "shooting percentage" for the entire season (40% of GOGs played needed to qualify for Scoring Average). I encourage everyone to play the entire season, but don't fret if you miss a GOG, just play the next time!

A word about clarity: I try as much as possible to write the questions in such a way so that it is clear what I am asking for. If you need a clarification though, just mention it in your entry and I'll respond as soon as I see it.

Useful Resources:

GOG 2012-13 #00: Preseason Predictions

Deadline is tip off of the Maryland Game on November 9.

The Men

- Overall Season:

  1. How many games does UK win? [4 points; 2 points if within three] 21
  2. How many games does UK lose? [3 points, 1 point if within one] 12
  3. What NCAA Tournament seed does UK get? [3 points] None ;-(
  4. Does Kentucky lose back-to-back games at any point in the season? [+/- 1 point] Yes
  5. What are the fewest points scored by UK in a win this season? [4/3/2/1 points] 60
  6. What are the most points scored by UK in a win this season? [4/3/2/1 points] 104
  7. Where does UK finish in the AP Poll, Coaches Poll, and KenPom Ratings this season? [3 points each, 9 points total; 1 point if within two spots] Not Ranked, Not Ranked, 48
  8. Choose Kentucky's finish in the SEC Regular Season: 1) First [2 pts], 2) Second or Third [2 pts], 3) Fourth or below [4 points]. 2nd
  9. Pick your Final Four teams [4 points each, 16 points total; 2 points if a selected team is eliminated in the Elite 8, 1 point if eliminated in the Sweet 16] Louisville, Michigan, Syracuse, Wichita St

- Individual Players:

  1. Put the freshmen (Noel, Goodwin, Cauley-Stein, Poythress) in order (best to worst) of season average scoring PPG. [1 point each, 4 points total] Goodwin, Poythress, Noel, WCS
  2. Put the freshmen in order (best to worst) of Offensive Rating. [1 point each, 4 points total] Poythress, Noel, WCS, Goodwin
  3. How many games does it take Nerlens Noel to break Anthony Davis's single season Blocks record? You can also choose "He won't break it" as an option. [4 points; 2 points if within three games if you choose an actual game total] Did not break it
  4. How many times does a Wildcat record 10+ assists, steals, or blocks in a game? [3 points, 1 point if within two] 2
  5. Predict Willie Cauley-Stein's season highs for points/rebounds/blocks. [3 points each, 9 points total; 1 point if within two] 20/12/7
  6. Predict John Hood's season highs for Minutes Played/FG Attempts/Rebounds [3 points each, 9 points total; 1 point if within two] 16/5/4
  7. Does a UK player record a Triple-Double this year? [+/- 1 point] no

The Women

- Overall Season:

  1. How many games does UK win? [4 points; 2 points if within three] 30
  2. How many games does UK lose? [3 points, 1 point if within one] 6
  3. How far does UK advance in the NCAAW Tournament? [3 points] Elite 8
  4. What is UK's longest winning streak of the season? [4 points; 2 points if within three] 17
  5. What are the fewest points allowed by UK this season? [4/3/2/1 points] 23
  6. What are the most points scored by UK this season? [4/3/2/1 points] 100
  7. Choose Kentucky's finish in the SEC Regular Season: 1) First [2 pts], 2) Second or Third [3 pts], 3) Fourth or below [4 points]. 2nd
  8. What is the single game high in steals by the team? [5 points; two points if within four] 21

- Individual Players:

  1. How many times does A'dia Mathies lead the team in scoring? [4 points; 2 points if within three] 18
  2. How many players average 1.5 steals per game or better? [3 points; 1 point if within two] 3
  3. Who has the best 3pt FG Percentage: 1) A'dia Mathies [2 pts], 2) Kastine Evans [3 pts], Bria Goss [4 pts]. Mathies
  4. Predict Janee Thompson's Assists per game/Steals per game/Turnovers per game [3 points each for being within one, 9 points total; 1 point if within two] 0.9/0.6/1.1
  5. Predict Samantha Drake's Points per game/Rebounds per game/FT Attempts per game [3 points each for being within one, 9 points total; 1 point if within two] 2.6/1.4/1.1

RK UserName PTS
1 Wild Weasel 52
2 kcgard2 47
3 big-cuz fan 43
4 a2d2 39
5 kydamcat 37
5 sweasyf 37
7 ukcris 35
8 GoLightning 28

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