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Kentucky Basketball: Alabama, Vanderbilt, and the Wildcats' SEC Schedule

I didn't see the game, but apparently the Alabama Crimson Tide were beaten near-senseless by the Vanderbilt Commodores in Tuscaloosa last night, and the final score is not indicative of the beat-down they suffered. That is interesting news on two possible fronts.

First, the Tide are going to come into Rupp Arena with a chip on their shoulder. That in and of itself is not an ideal situation, but if Kentucky brings their best game, Alabama should not be able to pull off the upset. Rupp Arena is a tough place to play under the best of conditions, and while I expect Anthony Grant and his charges to be fully engaged at Rupp, the short turnaround probably works against them.

Second, how good is Vanderbilt? Since losing embarrassingly to the Indiana St. Sycamores a little over a month ago, the Commodores have ripped off 8 straight wins, two of them against teams ranked in Ken Pomeroy's top 25, both on the road.

The SEC race has just begun to heat up, and Vanderbilt is letting everyone know that the early-season swoon is a thing of the past. I know the 'Cats looked really good against the young Arkansas Razorbacks, but they are about to be tested by the angry Tide, and then go on a two-game road trip.

Star-divide

I must add, though, that if Calipari created this schedule mostly on his own, it is genius. Nobody could create a more favorable early schedule while still figuring in some challenges. Consider this:

Date UK rnk Opp Rnk Team Result/proj. Pace Win prob. Loc Overall Conference
Sat Jan 7 3 130 South Carolina W, 79-64 65 Home 15-1 1-0
Wed Jan 11 4 196 Auburn W, 68-53 58 Away 16-1 2-0
Sat Jan 14 5 102 Tennessee W, 65-62 67 Away 17-1 3-0
Tue Jan 17 5 86 Arkansas W, 86-63 71 Home 18-1 4-0
Sat Jan 21
18 Alabama W, 67-58 65 81% Home
Tue Jan 24
139 Georgia W, 72-59 64 89% Away
Sat Jan 28
81 Louisiana St. W, 69-60 68 81% Away
Tue Jan 31
102 Tennessee W, 75-57 66 95% Home
Sat Feb 4
130 South Carolina W, 72-59 63 89% Away
Tue Feb 7
11 Florida W, 79-71 68 75% Home
Sat Feb 11
31 Vanderbilt W, 71-67 68 64% Away
Sat Feb 18
116 Mississippi W, 76-56 69 95% Home
Tue Feb 21
62 Mississippi St. W, 75-67 68 77% Away
Sat Feb 25
31 Vanderbilt W, 75-64 68 85% Home
Thu Mar 1
139 Georgia W, 76-55 64 96% Home
Sun Mar 4
11 Florida L, 76-75 68 49% Away


This is our SEC schedule. The games highlighted are the tough ones. We only have one really challenging game in the first nine games of the season. One.

That means that the back half is lo... lo... loaded with difficult contests against the best in the SEC... BUT, this is the point at which you would expect Kentucky, which has a much higher ceiling (in my opinion) than any other SEC team to be rising toward peak effectiveness. If I were Calipari with a freshman-dominated team, this is exactly how I would plan a schedule.

I assume this is more just good fortune than anything else, but I can't really blame opposing conspiracy theorist from seeing something nefarious in here by the SEC. The theory would go that the SEC wants to win a championship, they knew Kentucky was by far the best team and a top contender, so they therefore made them a very favorable schedule including no short turn-around games.

Well, that certainly fits the observed fact of the favorable schedule, but it is more likely happy coincidence than something nefarious. I'm sure there will be some Cal-haters who will suggest that it is a conspiracy by Calipari and the SEC to screw everyone else and pave the way for a UK national championship, because, you know, Calipari is THE DEVIL.

If Calipari did sell the SEC on this idea, I'd just like to shake his hand. Anyone that convincing deserves to come out on top.

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Just saw a little of the game last nite...

But Vandy looked really good and Bama looked very beatable. Vandy made Auburn look awful earlier too and because of that I felt…and maybe the Cats felt…Auburn would be a push over. Of course that wasn’t the case. I expect a better Bama performance Saturday but the Cats will prevail. Just hope they didn’t watch the game last night. Also,I think Vandy is the real deal. A top 10 team IMO.

by maysvilleblue on Jan 20, 2012 10:05 AM EST reply actions  

I also watched some of the game

Vandy’s defense was really good, and that surprised me after watching some of their earlier games. They essentially shut down both Green and Mitchell. Ezeli looked good, but Golburne has really improved on both ends of the floor. I thought he looked as good as any of Vandy’s players. Of course, Jenkins got his 20.

Maybe Alabama players just had an off night. I still think they have a very good squad, especially defensively. They got after Vandy later in the game, but just couldn’t get their offense to match their defensive effort.

by jdogblue on Jan 20, 2012 5:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Scheduling

I have some knowledge of scheduling problems in sports (from an Operations Research perspective) and while I would not completely discount the possibility of influence one way or another, the truth is there are so many variables and conditions that have to be satisfied in order to create a workable schedule for a conference that the ability to deliberately give UK or any other school a sizable advantage or disadvantage this way would be minimal.

But yeah, this UK team couldn’t have asked for a better set up in conference play.

Statistics is the part of mathematics that God didn't invent. - Ethan Smith

by JLeverenz on Jan 20, 2012 10:13 AM EST reply actions  

64%, Surely A Jest

64% odds of a 2/11 win vs Vandy? In Memorial Gym? With Game Day in the house? I would say 39% is more accurate.

"In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act." - George Orwell

by Wild Weasel on Jan 20, 2012 10:14 AM EST reply actions  

Ken Pomeroy's system is hardly infallible, but based on current data, that's right.

The thing is, you cannot account for everything mathematically. It’s just a tool.

Vandy has one of the toughest gyms in America, but you can’t quantify that. This is a quantitative system, so subjective things like that can’t be figured in.

But do you really think that Vandy’s gym gives them a six or seven point advantage? I rather doubt that.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Glenn Logan on Jan 20, 2012 10:43 AM EST up reply actions  

The thing about Memorial

is that players and coaches find it disconcerting. Benches at the end of the court is simply so foreign for players, especially the first time they play there. If I were a coach, I would downplay that aspect as much as possible. Might even do a Norman Dale trick and take them in and measure the height of the basket and distance from free throw line to the basket.

by jdogblue on Jan 20, 2012 5:27 PM EST up reply actions  

A formula cannot discount early season bad play or lack of player.

A human can say that the Vandy who played in December is not the same one playing now, or in February.

by GoLightning on Jan 20, 2012 1:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Some years we have crappy conference schedules and some years we don't

It just so happens that this year’s schedule is favorable to UK.

As far as Vandy goes, they were a preseason top ten team with all kinds of returning talent. They’re supposed to be kicking some butt.

by chicagoblues on Jan 20, 2012 10:14 AM EST reply actions  

So much for Bama's vaunted defense

I watched about half the game off and on and Vandy had many open looks from the three and wound up making 8-18 44%. At one point in the second half Vandy was up by 20, I guess they let off the gas somewhat and the final score looks more respectable, if you call getting beat at home by 10 points is respectable.

A man is nothing more than a summation of his scars!

by KansasUKCat on Jan 20, 2012 10:25 AM EST reply actions  

No Mention Of Lady Cats

UK’s win 69-64 over ranked UGA on the road deserves front page exposure. Great coaching, great adjustment, bigs and half-court defense — only 14 forced TO’s — led the way.

"In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act." - George Orwell

by Wild Weasel on Jan 20, 2012 10:32 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Glenn
I must add, though, that if Calipari created this schedule mostly on his own, it is genius.

That is extremely well played, sir. Clever stuff! Made me laugh.

In all honesty, despite Stallings comments on Thursday-Saturday match ups, Vandy’s SEC schedule is extremely favorable for us as well this season. Festus Ezeli still isn’t quite to 100% (Stallings said 70% in the game last night), and we needed time to get him closer to where he was in the preseason before we had to face y’all or Florida. Thankfully, the SEC backloaded the hell out of our schedule, as we don’t face either of you until February.

by KingJamesIV on Jan 20, 2012 10:45 AM EST reply actions  

Yeah, if you look at the schedules

UK, Vandy, and UK don’t play each other till February. The same thing happened last year. Not sure if its planned or not. And I think the Thursday-Saturday match ups are about TV money, and nothing else. UK fans are mostly nuts when it comes to our CATS. A bunch of crazy people you know are going to watch their team even if they are playing a team at the bottom of the SEC, coupled with all the people that watch UK in hopes that they lose, and you have better ratings. I am not saying Vandy, UF, or any other team doesn’t have crazy, loyal, and awesome fans. I am just saying that about 30% of UK fans could and should be committed (myself included). The wife won’t watch games with me anymore. :)

Aside from that, I am glad Vandy is getting it together. The reminded me of the CATS a bunch this year. For about 25 mintues, they looked unbeatable. Alabama hung on for about 8 in the first, threw a couple of uppercuts in the second, but Vandy weathered the storm and beat a good team at home. Watched the whole game and was very impressed with the MANY different options they have on offense. Not looking forward to playing in your house.

by UKlvrBM on Jan 20, 2012 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Freakonomics

More people, outside of Big Blue Nation, watch more basketball in February than January. So it is probably better for ratings to have games against the top conference teams later in the season than earlier. That’s my hypothesis.

by GoLightning on Jan 20, 2012 12:59 PM EST reply actions  

"Charge Circle"

KSR College (a new feature) provides an interesting look into “blarge” and restricted zone.

"In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act." - George Orwell

by Wild Weasel on Jan 20, 2012 2:08 PM EST reply actions  

Vandy's end line benches

I’m looking for a couple answers here. One, is there any other Div. 1 school with end line benches? Two, if the intent with a basketball court is uniformity, how does Vandy get to have end line benches? And thirdly, does end line benches have a larger/longer coaches box than side line benches? Thanks for any help people.

by UK1972 on Jan 20, 2012 2:17 PM EST reply actions  

The design of Memorial at Nashville was done by a large group of people

not the least of which was Adolph Rupp himself

I am now and shall forever be the Cat in The Hat, The Artist Formerly Known As ABC!!!

by Greg Alan Edwards on Jan 20, 2012 2:48 PM EST up reply actions  

End line benches

were very popular in the early 1970s. But Vandy has the only configuration in college basketball (to my knowledge) that retain them. Sideline seats in Memorial are below floor level, so Vandy asserts that the gym configuation prevents them from having sideline benches. However, Minnesota (and I believe Purdue) also have sideline seats below floor level, but have benches on the sidelines. The Final Four floor last year also had seats below floor level, or was it in 2010?

I’m not quite sure how Vandy gets this variance from the league or the NCAA.

I suspect the coaches’ box at Vandy extends from the bench to the out of bounds line. I know I have seen coaches run the length of the baseline there.

by jdogblue on Jan 20, 2012 5:35 PM EST up reply actions  

the SEC voted for it

because of the super wide sidelines and the sunk seating – the benches used to be below the court, and the coaches couldn’t see anything – kind of like Minnesota or that final four at Ford Field.

Rumor has it that Florida State’s coach complained that he couldn’t climb the stairs, so the SEC voted to move it to the baselines (common at the time)

Memorial’s history is an interesting read, http://www.vucommodores.com/sports/historycorner/spec-rel/012611aaa.html

and it’s certainly one of the best home-court advantages in the NCAA today. I believe Memorial is now grandfathered in. What makes memorial so special is not just the courts on the end, but the acoustics. It’s built like a concert hall and with the stands stacked on top of each other, the noise just amplifies.

Should be a great game this year, I think Kentucky is easily the best team in the country this year

by vandy12 on Jan 20, 2012 2:43 PM EST reply actions  

Sorry I didn't see your post before I made mine

Also, there are some very bad seats in Memorial. I hated being up under the overhang in the lower level.

by jdogblue on Jan 20, 2012 5:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Two observations

1) " the Tide are going to come into Rupp Arena with a chip on their shoulder". . . yeah, but they might just suck.

2) any evaluation system that has UK with a 64% chance of winning in Nashville is prima facie flawed.

by NYCCats on Jan 20, 2012 7:40 PM EST reply actions  

"Prima facie?"

Seriously?

All systems are flawed. All of them. 100%. No exceptions.

So what are you trying to say here?

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Glenn Logan on Jan 20, 2012 11:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm just saying that the Pomeroy system, with the data it has, is not producing accurate answers

Maybe that will change as more data is fed into the system and projections are revised – it may be very accurate by tournament time. But right now, it’s producing results that don’t pass the smell test, that’s all.

by NYCCats on Jan 21, 2012 9:29 AM EST up reply actions  

actually it does pretty well

Keep in mind that Pomeroy is not trying to predict UK games. He is trying to predict NCAA D1 games. There is a difference and he’s already talked about it with respect to Wisconsin.

Also, the game is still a ways away. If Vandy continues to play as well as they have so far in conference play, that chance will drop.

Statistics is the part of mathematics that God didn't invent. - Ethan Smith

by JLeverenz on Jan 21, 2012 11:36 AM EST up reply actions  

This.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Glenn Logan on Jan 21, 2012 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

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