Kentucky Basketball Recruiting: 2012 Big Board (Version 3)

The dominoes are falling! The dominoes are falling! Since we last updated the big board in July, four of Scout's 5* recruits decided to commit, including Brandon Ashley (Arizona), Kyle Anderson (UCLA), and Marcus Smart (Oklahoma State). Oh, and hey, look here. The sky isn't falling for the Kentucky Wildcats after all!

Yes, we can all shoot fireworks in celebration. The Wildcats snagged their first recruit for the class of 2012 when Archie Goodwin, the fourth of the 5*'s mentioned above, committed on September 20.

That said, the prospect pool is shrinking, and one commit does not a class make. Kentucky is sitting comfortably with many of the top recruits in the nation. In fact, many of them will be attending Kentucky's Big Blue Madness celebration come October 14. This will be John Calipari's premier opportunity to sell the program. So if you're in and around Lexington, go out and show your support for your current, and possibly future, Wildcats.

Please be advised that table is best-viewed in "Wide" screen mode, which you can toggle via your dashboard. It's jam-packed with information that just can't be contained!

Name	Pos	School (City Located)	Ranking (Scout/Rivals/ESPNU)	Offer (Odds)	Commitment (Odds)	Favorite School(s)	News & Notes	Trending (since 7/25/11)
Willie Cauley	C	Olathe Northwest (Olathe, KS)	Scout: 4*/28th Rivals: 4*/39th ESPNU: 4*/32nd	Offered	40%	Kentucky Kansas St Alabama Florida	9/16/11 - Per Brian Snow (Scout), Cauley is down to four schools. He will likely make a decision before the early signing deadline. 9/9/11 - Cauley had an in-home visit with UK, as well as with KSU, Alabama, and UF. 8/31/11 - Cauley is expected to attend Big Blue Madness (BBN) on Oct 14.
DaJuan Coleman	C	Jamesville-DeWitt (DeWitt, NY)	Scout: 5*/11th Rivals: 4*/27th ESPNU: 5*/14th	Offered	25%	Syracuse Kentucky Ohio State	9/20/11 - Coleman had an in-home visit with UK. 9/7/11 - Per Adam Zagoria (ZagsBlog), Coleman will also visit OSU on Sep 23 and Syracuse at a TBD date. 8/31/11 - Coleman is expected to attend Big Blue Madness (BBN) on Oct 14.
Kaleb Tarczewski	C	St. Mark's (Southborough, MA)	Scout: 5*/8th Rivals: 5*/20th ESPNU: 5*/6th	Not Offered (0%)	0%	Kansas Arizona	9/13/11 - Per Dave Telep (ESPNU), Tarczewski is down to KU and UA and will likely take officials to both before deciding. He'll drop off the next big board.
Anthony Bennett	PF/SF	Findlay Prep (Henderson, NV)	Scout: 5*/9th Rivals: 5*/7th ESPNU: 5*/7th	Offered	25%	Florida Kentucky Washington West VA Pittsburgh Oregon Ohio St UNLV UConn	9/13/11 - Bennett was visited by UK at Findlay Prep. UK will most likely make Bennett's final cut. 9/11/11 - Per Adam Zagoria (ZagsBlog), Bennett plans to name finalists sometime next week. 9/1/11 - Bennett cut Missouri from his list of ten semi-finalists, and the nine left are listed.
Robert Carter	PF/C	Shiloh (Gwinett, GA)	Scout: 5*/18th Rivals: 4*/28th ESPNU: 5*/21st	Offered	25%	Kentucky Florida St Georgia GA Tech Florida Maryland Rhode Is	8/22/11 - Per Evan Daniels (Scout), Carter is down to seven finalists. He expects to take 5 official visits before committing.
Mitch McGary	PF/C	Brewster Academy (Wolfeboro, NH)	Scout: 5*/2nd Rivals: 5*/3rd ESPNU: 5*/2nd	Offered	20%	Duke Michigan UNC Kentucky Florida Maryland	9/17/11 - UK watched McGary along with teammate TJ Warren at a Brewster Academy practice. 9/15/11 - Per Jeff Goodman (CBS Sports), McGary's parents love Duke while his AAU coach loves Michigan. He is unconfirmed for visits to Maryland, UF, and UK. 8/9/11 - McGary cut his list to the 6 finalists listed.
Christopher Obekpa	PF	Our Savior New American (Centereach, NY)	Scout: 4*/UR Rivals: 3*/105th ESPNU: 4*/91st	Not Yet Offered (5%)	N/A	St. John's UConn GA Tech West Va Cincinnati Memphis Providence	8/20/11 - After a breakout summer at the Nike Skills Academies and Global Challenge, Obekpa has seen his offer list grow, the latest from UConn. He is on UK's radar, but is likely a backup option should the 4 names above not pan out.	*NEW*
Shabazz Muhammad	SF/SG	Bishop Gorman (Las Vegas)	Scout: 5*/1st Rivals: 5*/1st ESPNU: 5*/1st	Offered	40%	UCLA Kentucky Duke Kansas UNLV Texas Texas A&M Arizona USC	9/13/11 - Muhammad had an in-home visit with UK, and he also hosted UCLA, Duke, and Kansas. Other schools listed remain in consideration, and Muhammad has not yet decided on any other official visits. 8/31/11 - Muhammad is expected to attend BBM on Oct 14.
Alex Poythress	SF/PF	Northeast (Clarkville, TN)	Scout: 5*/16th Rivals: 5*/19th ESPNU: 5*/17th	Offered	30%	Vanderbilt Memphis Florida Kentucky Duke	9/15/11 - Poythress had an in-home visit with UK after previously taking his first official visit to Vanderbilt. 9/15/11 - Per Jeff Lockridge (Tennessean), Poythress will take official visits to the five schools listed. 8/31/11 - Poythress is expected to attend BBM on Oct 14.
Devonta Pollard	SF	Kemper County (Porterville, MS)	Scout: 5*/21st Rivals: 5*/9th ESPNU: 5*/20th	Offered	15%	Miss St Mississippi Alabama Missouri LSU Kentucky NC State	9/16/11 - UK had previously watched Pollard play on Jul 15, and news came out that Calipari may have violated the "bump" rule with another prospect. This is non-news as far as Pollard is concerned. 8/31/11 - Pollard is expected to attend BBM on Oct 14.
TJ Warren	SF	Brewster Academy (Wolfesboro, NH)	Scout: 5*/22nd Rivals: 5*/23rd ESPNU: 4*/23rd	Offered	15%	Louisville Georgetown Florida NC State Kansas Texas Kentucky UNC	9/17/11 - UK watched Warren along with teammate Mitch McGary at a Brewster Academy practice. 8/31/11 - Warren is expected to attend BBM on Oct 14.
Winston Shepard	SF	Findlay Prep (Henderson, NV)	Scout: 4*/43rd Rivals: 4*/40th ESPNU: 4*/68th	Not Yet Offered (5%)	N/A	Texas OK State Kansas Memphis New Mexico SDSU UCLA UNLV UTEP Kentucky Missouri	9/21/11 - No new news on Shepard, who remains a backup option for UK.
Archie Goodwin	SG	Sylvan Hills (Little Rock, AR)	Scout: 5*/13th Rivals: 5*/12th ESPNU: 5*/13th	Offered	Committed (9/20/11)	Kentucky	9/20/11 - Goodwin committed to UK over Memphis and Arkansas on Sep 20 and will attend BBM on Oct 14.
Gary Harris	SG	Hamilton Southeastern (Fishers, IN)	Scout: 5*/12th Rivals: 5*/25th ESPNU: 5*/10th	Not Yet Offered (25%)	N/A	Indiana Louisville Michigan St Notre Dame Pittsburgh	9/20/11 - Harris received an unexpected in-home visit from UK. Harris had previously eliminated UK as a finalist, but Calipari is renewing interest. Stay tuned.
Torian Graham	SG	Word of God (Durham, NC)	Scout: 4*/51st Rivals: 4*/51st ESPNU: 4*/38th	Not Yet Offered (5%)	0%	NC State Duke UNC Kentucky UCLA Baylor	8/8/11 - Graham decommitted from NC State on Aug 8. Per Jeff Gravley (WRAL Sports), he is considering the schools listed. UK remains a longshot, but it's a shot.
Andre Drummond	C	St. Thomas More (Oakdale, CT)	Scout: 5*/N/A Rivals: 5*/N/A ESPNU: 5*/N/A	Not Offered (0%)	0%	UConn	8/28/11 - Drummond committed to UConn on Aug 28 and reclassed to 2011. He'll drop off the next big board.
Brandon Ashley	PF	Findlay Prep (Las Vegas, NV)	Scout: 5*/3rd Rivals: 5*/13th ESPNU: 5*/4th	Offered	0%	Arizona	8/29/11 - Ashley committed to Arizona over UCLA, Oregon, and UK on Aug 29.
Perry Ellis	PF	Wichita Heights (Wichita, KS)	Scout: 4*/33rd Rivals: 5*/24th ESPNU: 4*/37th	Offered	0%	Kansas	9/21/11 - Ellis committed to KU over UK, KSU, and Wich St on Sep 21.
Ricardo Ledo	SG	Notre Dame (Fitchberg, MA)	Scout: 4*/25th Rivals: 5*/8th ESPNU: 4*/22nd	Offered	0%	Providence	9/5/11 - Ledo committed to Providence over UK, Syracuse and UConn on Sep 5.
JP Tokoto	SG/SF	Menomonee Falls (Menomonee Falls, WI)	Scout: 4*/86th Rivals: 4*/68th ESPNU: 4*/65th	Offered	0%	UNC	3/4/11 - Tokoto committed to UNC over Wisconsin on Mar 4.
LJ Rose	PG	Westbury Christian (Houston)	Scout: 4*/66th Rivals: 4*/95th ESPNU: 4*/74th	Offered	0%	Baylor	9/3/11 - Rose committed to Baylor over Georgetown and Virginia on Sep 3.

Note: Offer status is per Rivals where appropriate. Likelihood of offer and likelihood of commitment are estimates based on available information. Percentage statuses change as new information becomes available.

Scholarship Situation

Note: Section remains the same from last update.

As of today, Kentucky has two graduating seniors in Eloy Vargas and Darius Miller. Returnees in 2012 would include Jon Hood (RS junior), Stacey Poole (junior), Doron Lamb (junior), Terrence Jones (junior) and the 2011 class of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marquis Teague, Anthony Davis and Kyle Wiltjer. Jones, Lamb, Kidd-Gilchrist, Teague and Davis are strong early entrant candidates. Kentucky will also add NC State transfer Ryan Harrow, who is eligible starting in 2012 (RS sophomore), and return two preferred walk-ons, Jarrod Polson (junior) and Twany Beckham (senior).

Based on the above, Kentucky could have as many as 10 scholarships open, or as few as 4. Expect it to be closer to the former rather than the latter. This is admittedly a projection far into the future, and Kentucky's needs can and will change accordingly.

Remaining Targets - Bigs (Needs: 2-4)

Calipari will likely be looking for at least one stud each for the 4 and 5 spots, and possibly a third for depth.

At center, the pecking order appears to have changed. For the longest time, it appeared that Calipari targeted DaJuan Coleman as his center of choice. Recently, he's paid a lot of attention to a rising star, Willie Cauley. Calipari took in-home visits with both prospects, and both will be attending Big Blue Madness (BBM) in October. The difference between the two is (1) Coleman has long been rumored to favor hometown Syracuse, and (2) Cauley has expressed a willingness to commit prior to the early signing period. Given those two factors, Cauley seems like the take for now, but things will likely become clearer once BBM has passed.

One name that the Wildcats are no longer targeting is Andre Drummond. He committed to Connecticut and enrolled early to play college ball in 2011. Kaleb Tarczewski, likewise, has taken Kentucky off his list and is solely considering Arizona and Kansas.

For a while, Calipari thought he had his man the hold down the power forward fort. Kentucky had been aggressively recruiting Perry Ellis, but the Kansas native chose to stay in stay and play for the Jayhawks. Another potential 4, Brandon Ashley, is taking his talents to Arizona. That leaves a bunch of hybrid power forward prospects remaining. Mitch McGary and Robert Carter are both big 4's that could slide up to center, a la Anthony Davis. Anthony Bennett and Alex Poythress (further discussed in the wings) are more 3/4 forward hybrids, a la Terrence Jones.

Who will Calipari go after the hardest now? Your guess is as good as mine. Poythress has been a named bandied about by recruitniks as a likely commmit, but Duke is making a charge and would be a strong adversary. One thing to note: of the four listed, Poythress is the only confirmed to be at BBM. So there's that. Meanwhile, Bennett and Carter remain mystery men with no real favorites. McGary may be slipping behind, as Duke and Michigan have emerged as leaders.

The only new name to debut on the board is Christopher Obekpa, a sleeper prospect that drew Calipari's attention after a strong summer circuit. For Kentucky, he would be a good project big and would add to frontcourt depth. However, with his stock rising (UConn recently offered, for example), Obekpa may not want to start out so low on the totem pole. Anyway, he's on the Wildcat radar, but has not been offered.

Remaining Targets - Wings (Needs: 1-2)

Surprise, surprise. Shabazz Muhammad remains the target here. It's good news, bad news time. The good news is that he's coming to BBM to bond with potential future Wildcats. The bad news is that his close friend, Kyle Anderson, committed to UCLA. With both sides said, the Bruins still remain the favorite to land Shabazz, but Kentucky still looks like a close second.

Beyond the #1 prospect in the nation, Kentucky is in the hunt for three other small forwards, Alex Poythress,  Devonta Pollard, and TJ Warren. All three are expected to attend BBM, making it hard to play favorites at this point. Still, gut feel from recruitniks and from me says Poythress is the main target, with the Warren train gaining steam.

Winston Shepard remains on the board, but he's been very quiet recently. He doesn't have an offer, but is still a backup option for Kentucky. It wouldn't surprise me if Shepard was a guy that looked for immediate playing time at a mid-major and starred there.

Remaining Targets - Guards (Needs: 1-3)

Archie Goodwin, come on down! In the last update, I posited that Goodwin and Ricardo Ledo were an either/or combination. Well, Kentucky's interest waned on Ledo, who ended up committing to Providence. Meanwhile, Calipari continued to doggedly pursue Goodwin, and the hard work paid off with Kentucky's first commitment.

Even with Goodwin on board, Calipari is still fishing. Perhaps the most interesting news is that Calipari told Muhammad he was being recruited as a 2, his NBA position, even though he could easily slide up to the 3 in college. Goodwin, being a tall 2 himself, would still mesh well with Muhammad sharing the perimeter. At least, that's what Calipari will be telling Muhammad.

But wait, there's more! Two names that were thought to be off Kentucky's radar have resurfaced. The first is Gary Harris, who has received the full-court press for Calipari in the past couple of weeks. Harris looks like a true 2 and may or may not have been a contingency plan if Goodwin hadn't committed. But Kentucky's interest remains real even after the Goodwin commit, so keep an eye on Harris. The other name, Torian Graham, decommitted from NC State and is hopeful that Kentucky will pursue him. The interest appears one way right now, but that could change.

Kentucky's only point guard offer, LJ Rose, ended up committing to Baylor. His recruitment was a (relatively) disappointing story. Once regarded as a potential 5* recruit during his sophomore year, he has since slipped down recruiting boards. Along the way, he's seen his potential schools UNC (Marcus Paige), UK (Ryan Harrow), Texas (Jevan Felix), and UCLA (Dominic Artis) all pick up a different point guard of choice. Hopefully, the young man does well at Baylor.

Outlook

With Goodwin on board, Kentucky fans can breathe a little easier. But in recruiting, it's always about "what's next?"

Willie Cauley could be the next domino to fall. Of the names listed on the big board, he's the only one that's been discussed as an early signing period commit.

And Shabazz Muhammad clearly remains priority number one. He is the guy we'll wait on until the end of time. Expect that one to continue on into the spring period.

Beyond that, the picture has gotten clearer while still staying fuzzy. As names like Ashley and Ellis drop off the board, there's less prospects for Calipari to pick from. The thing is, we still don't know who he's picking. Anyone attending BBM is a candidate, and yes, it's a whole host of names.

The one thing you can count on is that recruitniks remain unconcerned that Calipari will end up with a stellar recruiting class. The questions are just who and when.

Follow my Twitter feed (@JC_at_M2M) for the latest updates and keep an eye out for the next big board update.

Other Recruiting Big Boards

2012 | Version 2 (7/25/11) | Version 1 (4/21/11)
2013/14 | Version 1 (5/25/11)
2011 | Version 2 (4/25/11) | Version 1 (4/15/11)