It’s been awhile since the last one of these, but I had to take the big and scary Kentucky Bar Exam.  Here comes a projection for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s freshman season based on the stats of the last five top-ranked small forward recruits.

First things first: I’m calling Kidd-Gilchrist “Gillie” for the rest of this post.  It’s fun to say and based on his twitter handle (@MikeGillie14), I think he’s fine with the nickname.  Also typing hyphens really slows me down.

Now for the stats: here are the last five players to be ranked as Scout.com’s number one small forward and their stats from their freshmen seasons.

Year

If you look at the chart, the first thing that should jump out at you is that Kevin Durant was an amazing college player.  I mean, look at those stats.  He was exquisite.  He also used 31.6% of Texas’s possessions, which is far more than Gillie will use at UK.  Due to both his awesomeness and his usage rate, I’ve created a second “Non-Durant Average” that I think is more reflective of what top ranked small forwards normally provide their teams.  That average is 13.8 PPG and about 5.7 RPG.

The thing to notice when looking at the other four players on this list is how similarly they performed to one another.  The low scorer on the list was Lance Stephenson at 12.3 PPG; the high scorer was Harrison Barnes at 15.7.  Rebounding is where there precious little separation between the players, as the worst rebounder averaged 5.4 RPG and the best rebounder averaged 5.8.

So among these five players is one of the best college players of recent years and four guys who were all at least pretty good.  My inclination is that the Non-Durant Average isn’t a bad projection for Gillie.  I’m confident he will average more than 5.7 RPG, if only because he’s likely to spend at least a little time at PF (and scouting reports do indicate he’s a good rebounder).  I’ll go out on a limb and say 7 RPG.  I also think, though, that 13.8 PPG might be a few too many.  Given the number of scoring options UK will have next year, Gillie looks to me like a guy that won’t have many plays run for him.  I’ll guess 12 PPG earned through hustle on the boards and on the break.  On the defensive side, where all scouting reports are absolutely glowing, I’ll say 1 BPG and 1.5 SPG.

As I have before, I’ll give you the PPG of the last five players ranked at Gillie’s overall spot, which in this case was number five.  I don’t think these stats have any predictive value, but they are a fun trip down memory lane.

Year

Hey, did you know Josh Harrellson was drafted ahead of Josh Selby this year?  That’s never going to get old.  Also, look who coached the two best players on this list.  Hint: he really wants you to go to Orangeleaf today.

Bottom Line: Gillie is a hugely important part of UK’s success as its number one perimeter defender, but he does not score as much as someone like Harrison Barnes.  Why?  Too many good players on the UK roster.