FanPost

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: What to Expect Based on the Stats of Similar Recruits

It’s been awhile since the last one of these, but I had to take the big and scary Kentucky Bar Exam.  Here comes a projection for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s freshman season based on the stats of the last five top-ranked small forward recruits.

First things first: I’m calling Kidd-Gilchrist “Gillie” for the rest of this post.  It’s fun to say and based on his twitter handle (@MikeGillie14), I think he’s fine with the nickname.  Also typing hyphens really slows me down.

Now for the stats: here are the last five players to be ranked as Scout.com’s number one small forward and their stats from their freshmen seasons.

Year

Comp by Positional Rank

PPG

Rebounds

Assists

Blocks

Steals

2010

Harrison Barnes

15.7

5.8

1.4

0.4

0.7

2009

Lance Stephenson

12.3

5.4

2.5

0.2

0.9

2008

Demar DeRozan

13.9

5.7

1.5

0.4

0.9

2007

Kyle Singler

13.3

5.8

1.4

0.7

1.1

2006

Kevin Durant

25.8

11.1

1.3

1.9

1.9

Average

16.2

6.76

1.62

0.72

1.1

Non-Durant Average

13.8

5.675

1.7

0.425

0.9

 

If you look at the chart, the first thing that should jump out at you is that Kevin Durant was an amazing college player.  I mean, look at those stats.  He was exquisite.  He also used 31.6% of Texas’s possessions, which is far more than Gillie will use at UK.  Due to both his awesomeness and his usage rate, I’ve created a second “Non-Durant Average” that I think is more reflective of what top ranked small forwards normally provide their teams.  That average is 13.8 PPG and about 5.7 RPG.

The thing to notice when looking at the other four players on this list is how similarly they performed to one another.  The low scorer on the list was Lance Stephenson at 12.3 PPG; the high scorer was Harrison Barnes at 15.7.  Rebounding is where there precious little separation between the players, as the worst rebounder averaged 5.4 RPG and the best rebounder averaged 5.8.

So among these five players is one of the best college players of recent years and four guys who were all at least pretty good.  My inclination is that the Non-Durant Average isn’t a bad projection for Gillie.  I’m confident he will average more than 5.7 RPG, if only because he’s likely to spend at least a little time at PF (and scouting reports do indicate he’s a good rebounder).  I’ll go out on a limb and say 7 RPG.  I also think, though, that 13.8 PPG might be a few too many.  Given the number of scoring options UK will have next year, Gillie looks to me like a guy that won’t have many plays run for him.  I’ll guess 12 PPG earned through hustle on the boards and on the break.  On the defensive side, where all scouting reports are absolutely glowing, I’ll say 1 BPG and 1.5 SPG.

As I have before, I’ll give you the PPG of the last five players ranked at Gillie’s overall spot, which in this case was number five.  I don’t think these stats have any predictive value, but they are a fun trip down memory lane.

Year

Comp by Overall Rank (5)

PPG

2010

Josh Selby

7.9

2009

Avery Bradley

11.6

2008

Tyreke Evans

17.1

2007

Derrick Rose

14.9

2006

Ty Lawson

10.2

Average

12.34

 

Hey, did you know Josh Harrellson was drafted ahead of Josh Selby this year?  That’s never going to get old.  Also, look who coached the two best players on this list.  Hint: he really wants you to go to Orangeleaf today.

Bottom Line: Gillie is a hugely important part of UK’s success as its number one perimeter defender, but he does not score as much as someone like Harrison Barnes.  Why?  Too many good players on the UK roster.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join A Sea Of Blue

You must be a member of A Sea Of Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at A Sea Of Blue. You should read them.

Join A Sea Of Blue

You must be a member of A Sea Of Blue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at A Sea Of Blue. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker