Kenucky Basketball: Fantasy Matchup Between UK and Duke, 2009-10

by Glenn Logan on Jul 13, 2011 5:39 PM EDT in Kentucky Wildcats Basketball

Losing to the West Virgina Mountaineers in 2009-10 was a big downer to all of the Big Blue Nation, and one of the reasons was that many Kentucky fans could see the Kentucky Wildcats face off against the Duke Blue Devils in the national semifinal game for the right to go on and play what was ultimately the Butler Bulldogs in the national finals.

I don't believe that 2009-10 UK was looking past Bob Huggins' team in that game, but there no doubt was some anticipation of the possible matchup between the two blue-bloods. It had been a long time, since 2001 in fact, since the Blue Devils and the Wildcats had met each other on the hardwood. It excited fans of both schools at the possibility, but nobody wanted to look past their instant opponents.

In the end, it would be West Virgina who would face, and fall, to the Blue Devils, who went on to dodge a last-second rim-out by Gordon Hayward to win the 2010 NCAA Tournament championship. But what would have happened if UK had won versus the 'Eers? WhatIfSports will give us their version of how it all worked out, after the jump.

What we did this time is the same thing we did last time -- play a 7-game fantasy series between the Dookies and the 'Cats. The results were:

2009-10 Duke vs. 2009-10 Kentucky
GAME	TEAM	MIN	FGM-A	3PM-A	FTM-A	REB	ASST	BLK	STL	TO	PF	TP
1	Duke	200	24-59	8-17	13-19	39	16	3	10	16	24	69
			40.7%	47.1%	68.4%
	Kentucky	200	25-55	7-17	15-29	36	19	5	5	14	18	72
			*45.5%*	*41.2%*	*51.7%*
2	Duke	225	35-82	9-20	18-22	48	19	6	9	13	26	97
			*42.7%*	*45.0%*	*81.8%*
	Kentucky	225	31-67	10-21	23-36	45	23	13	6	15	22	95
			46.3%	47.6%	63.9%
3	Duke	225	31-77	7-23	19-28	43	19	4	10	13	21	88
			40.3%	30.4%	67.9%
	Kentucky	225	31-63	7-23	22-26	43	19	10	6	17	23	91
			*49.2%*	*30.4%*	*84.6%*
4	Duke	200	19-48	4-15	13-15	27	15	2	9	17	21	55
			39.6%	26.7%	86.7%
	Kentucky	200	22-55	4-14	19-24	38	12	4	8	14	14	67
			40.0%	28.6%	79.2%
5	Duke	200	26-59	5-12	27-31	32	16	6	6	9	17	84
			44.1%	41.7%	87.1%
	Kentucky	200	30-67	6-18	12-17	41	22	8	5	15	22	78
			44.8%	33.3%	70.6%
6	Duke	200	23-58	6-15	23-29	42	13	3	9	11	17	75
			39.7%	40.0%	79.3%
	Kentucky	200	22-51	4-14	17-27	33	16	5	8	13	19	65
			43.1%	28.6%	63.0%
7	Duke	200	24-62	7-16	21-28	44	15	5	9	10	14	76
			38.7%	43.8%	75.0%
	Kentucky	200	22-61	5-17	8-13	37	13	6	6	16	20	57
			36.1%	29.4%	61.5%
Overall Shooting Percentages
	Duke		40.9%	39.0%	77.9%
	Kentucky		45.0%	35.5%	67.9%
Final series winner: Duke, 4-3

Ugh. Obviously, this is not what I'd hoped to see, and I have no doubt that if I did this same exercise again, it could well work out different. A 4-3 series could have come down to one press of the button, but alas, I feel compelled to report the results faithfully and without attempting to justify my own perceptions by gaming the system.

What defeated Kentucky in this simulation was free-throw shooting, something ironically familiar to John Calipari-coached teams. In reality, though, it wasn't the percentages as much as it was the number of times Duke got to the line. The Blue Devils shot 27 more free throws, almost 4 more per game on average, than Kentucky did. In another irony, this plays right into the widely-held perception that Duke gets all the calls. They got them all in this simulation as well.

There is no doubt I would rather lose to West Virgina than to Duke, especially since they went on to win the tournament. Be that as it may, I'd much rather Patrick Patterson, John Wall, and DeMarcus Cousins had the chance to try and beat the odds against the Blue Devils that year.

Despite what this simulation says, I still believe that UK would have won that matchup. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

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Comments

What if we had faced the dookies

And things hadn’t turned out like we all would have hoped? I am still not over the ’92 match-up turned ugly. Some feel we avenged the ’92 loss in ’98, but not me. I am not sure I will ever get that football pass or the stomp out of my head. I feel I should not add anything to it by wishing.
If/when it really happens, that is another story. Bring it! I am not skeered. :-)

Blue... there is no other color to Bleed !!!

by a2d2 on Jul 13, 2011 6:13 PM EDT reply actions

We'll get a shot at them next year, I think.

That will be something to see.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Glenn Logan on Jul 13, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know what to make of this

It would certainly be interesting to know the algorithm. Duke outrebounds UK in four games and ties in another. I certainly didn’t remember Duke being that strong on the boards in 2010. Wall and Bledsoe were both pretty good rebounding guards and Cousins and Patterson got their share.

by jdogblue on Jul 13, 2011 7:15 PM EDT reply actions

Other interesting notes

In only one of the games does UK get its season FG% of .479. But in three games UK exceeded its season FT % of .668. In five of the games, UK exceeds its season assists avg. of 15 per game. In only three games did UK achieve its season blocked shots avg. of 7 per game.

by jdogblue on Jul 13, 2011 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Duke was particularly good on the offensive boards that year

It was a big reason why they won it all – they actually got good work from Zoubek and Co. UK was just as good though. Neither team was as strong on the defensive glass as they were on the offensive side.

Age is always advancing. And I believe it's up to no good. - Harry Dresden

by JLeverenz on Jul 13, 2011 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I appreciate that

Duke averaged 39 total RB per game that year (UK 41.6), 14.55 per game offensive (UK 14.34). In the stats above, Duke exceeded their season average in total RBs five games. In five of the seven games, Duke exceeded their season average in 3PFG% of 38.5. In six of the seven games, they exceeded their season assists average of 13.65.

Either UK’s defense was not up to par in the simulations or Duke played above their season’s ability.

by jdogblue on Jul 13, 2011 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Link to Duke stats

http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/seasons/season-stats.php?season=2009-10

by jdogblue on Jul 13, 2011 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Would've, Could've, Should've-

A Fantastic matchup this would have been… But, I’ll never forget that first half of nothing but three pointers from W. Virginia. I have never seen anything like it and probably never will again… A terribly disappointing loss if there ever was one… As usual, I will say that Duke would want no part of us, if we had beat W. Virginia…

"You are what you are and you ain't what you ain't"

by iam4ukintn on Jul 13, 2011 10:24 PM EDT reply actions

I agree.

That West Virginia game was one I’d very much like to surgically excise from my memory.

A Sea of Blue -- Kentucky Sports for the Discerning Fan

by Glenn Logan on Jul 14, 2011 6:08 AM EDT up reply actions

I still hate Joe Mazzulla.

http://aseaofblue.com | http://marchtomarch.fantake.com | @jc_at_m2m

by jc25 on Jul 14, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions

it was a soul-killer of a loss for sure

To me the only ones that can compare are Marquette in 2003 and UAB in 2004. Ah well, gotta have losses like these to make wins like Ohio State this year all the sweeter, I guess.

Would we have gone on to beat Duke? Sure, why not? I guess the ability to go back and predict wins in games we didn’t make it to is the upside of devestating tourney losses :)

by blue kentucky girl on Jul 14, 2011 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions